January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

[snow1]

Just now, forkyfork said:

i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with it

Forky, any thoughts on how west this can come?

[Zelocita Weather]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with it

That would be awesome....

[USCG RS]

i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with it

Wholeheartedly agree. That and the winds if this storm winds up and too close.

[Snowman86]

Explain what you mean by this guys?

[Enigma]

I'd be much more worried about mixing if I lived in BOS or the cape. Probably the same for E end of LI. For much of the sub forum, we need earlier phase and possible closure at H5. NAM and Navgem both very close to both. 

[USCG RS]

I'd be much more worried about mixing if I lived in BOS or the cape. Probably the same for E end of LI. For much of the sub forum, we need earlier phase and possible closure at H5. NAM and Navgem both very close to both. 

So is the ukie. It's all about the timing of the phase

[Rjay]

Please don't feel discouraged to ask questions.  Hopefully some more knowledgeable posters will step up and answer them for you if they can. 

[NortheastPAWx]

Man just that 96hr look would make one think something epic is inbound.

Got to lose that double low.

[ILoveWinter]

What are the odds that the low closer to the coast is the one that ends up as primary?

[DaveTinNY]

12:27PM OKX Discussion:  

Based on SBU CSTAR
ensemble/wave packet analysis, sensitivity to this forecast
appears to be tied to nature of energy rounding an Aleutians low
tonight into Monday (modulated by wave packet energy emanating
from Central PAC), which will ultimately phase with and dig the
the polar jet mid week. Would think that models should have a
better handle on this energy 30-36 hrs from now when it is over
NOAM. Have stayed close to GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs of 30 to
50 percent for 1/10th inch QPF over the region Wed Night into
Thu Night. As noted yesterday, both a limited impact offshore
track or significant wind/precip impact closer to the coast
track are still equally possibly at this point.

[brooklynwx99]

The look out west right now is very complex and modeling will have a very difficult time figuring out how each piece of the puzzle will develop.

There are four elements that will determine the fate of this threat. There is the Pacific ULL, the leading SW (which is in Canada right now), the trailing SW, and a lobe of the TPV that phases in last. 

There is no way modeling will figure out both the momentum and interactions between the different pieces of energy at 100 hours out. I am encouraged by the trends today, as it appears that the seasonal theme of a more meridional  PNA ridge and stronger NS shortwaves is presenting itself again. I am certain that we will continue to see changes even up to gametime due to the complexity of the setup. Latent heat release due to convection can even provide enough of a spark to move the storm farther west. As I’ve said multiple times before, phasing situations are extremely touchy.

We’ve seen much more dramatic shifts inside of 48-72 hours for the better (BDB, Jan 2016) and for the worse (Jan 2015, Mar 2017). We will have to wait a few more days until making solid conclusions regarding the track and intensity of the storm. The distinct possibility of a double-barreled LP system makes the threat even harder to model effectively at range. In summation, I am content with the trends today, but we will have to wait to see if this storm will continue to trend for the better or pull the rug out from under us. 

[Hailstorm]

3 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Hearing the eps is east as well

It's actually west as compared to 0z of last night.

[MJO812]

Alot of left leaners on the eps

 

Mean is 4  for the NYC area with more in LI

[MJO812]

950 low near the benchmark dropping into 940s in New England on eps and control

 Wow

Around 6 inches for NYC area on the control

[MJO812]

Euro has below 0 temps for lows all next weekend for the whole area.

[SnowGoose69]

It looks like about 10 if the EPS members are big hits.  It’s still possible though as many have said that either on the 00 or 12Z upcoming runs we could see some sort of major swing on this 

[BxEngine]

Please dont post hearsay everyone. If you dont know, just ask.

[BxEngine]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The look out west right now is very complex and modeling will have a very difficult time figuring out how each piece of the puzzle will develop.

There are four elements that will determine the fate of this threat. There is the Pacific ULL, the leading SW (which is in Canada right now), the trailing SW, and a lobe of the TPV that phases in last. 

There is no way modeling will figure out both the momentum and interactions between the different pieces of energy at 100 hours out. I am encouraged by the trends today, as it appears that the seasonal theme of a more meridional  PNA ridge and stronger NS shortwaves is presenting itself again. I am certain that we will continue to see changes even up to gametime due to the complexity of the setup. Latent heat release due to convection can even provide enough of a spark to move the storm farther west. As I’ve said multiple times before, phasing situations are extremely touchy.

We’ve seen much more dramatic shifts inside of 48-72 hours for the better (BDB, Jan 2016) and for the worse (Jan 2015, Mar 2017). We will have to wait a few more days until making solid conclusions regarding the track and intensity of the storm. The distinct possibility of a double-barreled LP system makes the threat even harder to model effectively at range. In summation, I am content with the trends today, but we will have to wait to see if this storm will continue to trend for the better or pull the rug out from under us. 

 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That's what we have to watch for in later runs. Models are currently jumping the center further east than the 540 thickness line. In the March 93 phase the low developed right on the 540 thickness line. If models correct to that location in later runs, then the low will be more tucked in near the SE Coast.

 

 

These are outstanding posts. With so many moving parts and still 4 days to go, a lot of things are going to move around before we finalize a solution. 

[White Gorilla]

Indeed great posts by all and I am learning a lot here.  I would be nervous if I was in the bullseye right now 4-5 days away.  I would much rather be in this position of model solutions because we know changes are still yet afoot. 

[EasternLI]

EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it.

OP - 0.5"

EPS - 0.7"

[cut]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it.

OP - 0.5"

EPS - 0.7"

Can u post E29? At work with little time.

[Ace]

18Z Nam through 51 hours shows a deeper Northern Stream shortwave. Should be interesting to see how it turns out.

[Ace]

I know its the 18Z Nam, but it shows a vastly improved upper air pattern. More interaction between the two streams by hour 57 and the Southern stream sort is slower. 

[EasternLI]

16 minutes ago, cut said:

Can u post E29? At work with little time.

Nah, it's the most robust looking member, so I don't really want to post it. I will say, if your location tag is accurate, I think you'd love it as well.

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, Ace said:

I know its the 18Z Nam, but it shows a vastly improved upper air pattern. More interaction between the two streams by hour 57 and the Southern stream sort is slower. 

Yeah, obviously more interaction, this should blow up off the Florida coast/western Bahamas. 18z NAM though so...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

24 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it.

OP - 0.5"

EPS - 0.7"

I’m just not understanding the low precip amounts out there based on the overall evolution. I think precip is being under some done out there. Based on this coming up from a warm moisture laden area. I could easily see this having a feb 13 style deform band out there. 

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Nah, it's the most robust looking member, so I don't really want to post it. I will say, if your location tag is accurate, I think you'd love it as well.

Post in banter.

[Stormlover74]

Nam has snow in Savannah lol

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m just not understanding the low precip amounts out there based on the overall evolution. I think precip is being under some done out there. Based on this coming up from a warm moisture laden area. I could easily see this having a feb 13 style deform band out there. 

QPF is the last indicator I'd consider right now. The 500mb evolution will hopefully continue to improve and precip will follow along with it. 

[BxEngine]

Minor improvements from 60 hrs on, northern stream dove a bit more south and the energy was consolidated a bit more at the back of the trough to sharpen it up some. Not nearly enough obviously, but small improvements 3 1/2 days out isnt the end of the world.