snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with it Forky, any thoughts on how west this can come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with it That would be awesome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with itWholeheartedly agree. That and the winds if this storm winds up and too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Explain what you mean by this guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'd be much more worried about mixing if I lived in BOS or the cape. Probably the same for E end of LI. For much of the sub forum, we need earlier phase and possible closure at H5. NAM and Navgem both very close to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'd be much more worried about mixing if I lived in BOS or the cape. Probably the same for E end of LI. For much of the sub forum, we need earlier phase and possible closure at H5. NAM and Navgem both very close to both. So is the ukie. It's all about the timing of the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Please don't feel discouraged to ask questions. Hopefully some more knowledgeable posters will step up and answer them for you if they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Man just that 96hr look would make one think something epic is inbound. Got to lose that double low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 What are the odds that the low closer to the coast is the one that ends up as primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12:27PM OKX Discussion: Based on SBU CSTAR ensemble/wave packet analysis, sensitivity to this forecast appears to be tied to nature of energy rounding an Aleutians low tonight into Monday (modulated by wave packet energy emanating from Central PAC), which will ultimately phase with and dig the the polar jet mid week. Would think that models should have a better handle on this energy 30-36 hrs from now when it is over NOAM. Have stayed close to GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs of 30 to 50 percent for 1/10th inch QPF over the region Wed Night into Thu Night. As noted yesterday, both a limited impact offshore track or significant wind/precip impact closer to the coast track are still equally possibly at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The look out west right now is very complex and modeling will have a very difficult time figuring out how each piece of the puzzle will develop. There are four elements that will determine the fate of this threat. There is the Pacific ULL, the leading SW (which is in Canada right now), the trailing SW, and a lobe of the TPV that phases in last. There is no way modeling will figure out both the momentum and interactions between the different pieces of energy at 100 hours out. I am encouraged by the trends today, as it appears that the seasonal theme of a more meridional PNA ridge and stronger NS shortwaves is presenting itself again. I am certain that we will continue to see changes even up to gametime due to the complexity of the setup. Latent heat release due to convection can even provide enough of a spark to move the storm farther west. As I’ve said multiple times before, phasing situations are extremely touchy. We’ve seen much more dramatic shifts inside of 48-72 hours for the better (BDB, Jan 2016) and for the worse (Jan 2015, Mar 2017). We will have to wait a few more days until making solid conclusions regarding the track and intensity of the storm. The distinct possibility of a double-barreled LP system makes the threat even harder to model effectively at range. In summation, I am content with the trends today, but we will have to wait to see if this storm will continue to trend for the better or pull the rug out from under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Hearing the eps is east as well It's actually west as compared to 0z of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Alot of left leaners on the eps Mean is 4 for the NYC area with more in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 950 low near the benchmark dropping into 940s in New England on eps and control Wow Around 6 inches for NYC area on the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro has below 0 temps for lows all next weekend for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It looks like about 10 if the EPS members are big hits. It’s still possible though as many have said that either on the 00 or 12Z upcoming runs we could see some sort of major swing on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Please dont post hearsay everyone. If you dont know, just ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: The look out west right now is very complex and modeling will have a very difficult time figuring out how each piece of the puzzle will develop. There are four elements that will determine the fate of this threat. There is the Pacific ULL, the leading SW (which is in Canada right now), the trailing SW, and a lobe of the TPV that phases in last. There is no way modeling will figure out both the momentum and interactions between the different pieces of energy at 100 hours out. I am encouraged by the trends today, as it appears that the seasonal theme of a more meridional PNA ridge and stronger NS shortwaves is presenting itself again. I am certain that we will continue to see changes even up to gametime due to the complexity of the setup. Latent heat release due to convection can even provide enough of a spark to move the storm farther west. As I’ve said multiple times before, phasing situations are extremely touchy. We’ve seen much more dramatic shifts inside of 48-72 hours for the better (BDB, Jan 2016) and for the worse (Jan 2015, Mar 2017). We will have to wait a few more days until making solid conclusions regarding the track and intensity of the storm. The distinct possibility of a double-barreled LP system makes the threat even harder to model effectively at range. In summation, I am content with the trends today, but we will have to wait to see if this storm will continue to trend for the better or pull the rug out from under us. 1 minute ago, bluewave said: That's what we have to watch for in later runs. Models are currently jumping the center further east than the 540 thickness line. In the March 93 phase the low developed right on the 540 thickness line. If models correct to that location in later runs, then the low will be more tucked in near the SE Coast. These are outstanding posts. With so many moving parts and still 4 days to go, a lot of things are going to move around before we finalize a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Indeed great posts by all and I am learning a lot here. I would be nervous if I was in the bullseye right now 4-5 days away. I would much rather be in this position of model solutions because we know changes are still yet afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it. OP - 0.5" EPS - 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it. OP - 0.5" EPS - 0.7" Can u post E29? At work with little time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18Z Nam through 51 hours shows a deeper Northern Stream shortwave. Should be interesting to see how it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I know its the 18Z Nam, but it shows a vastly improved upper air pattern. More interaction between the two streams by hour 57 and the Southern stream sort is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, cut said: Can u post E29? At work with little time. Nah, it's the most robust looking member, so I don't really want to post it. I will say, if your location tag is accurate, I think you'd love it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ace said: I know its the 18Z Nam, but it shows a vastly improved upper air pattern. More interaction between the two streams by hour 57 and the Southern stream sort is slower. Yeah, obviously more interaction, this should blow up off the Florida coast/western Bahamas. 18z NAM though so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 24 minutes ago, EasternLI said: EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it. OP - 0.5" EPS - 0.7" I’m just not understanding the low precip amounts out there based on the overall evolution. I think precip is being under some done out there. Based on this coming up from a warm moisture laden area. I could easily see this having a feb 13 style deform band out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Nah, it's the most robust looking member, so I don't really want to post it. I will say, if your location tag is accurate, I think you'd love it as well. Post in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nam has snow in Savannah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m just not understanding the low precip amounts out there based on the overall evolution. I think precip is being under some done out there. Based on this coming up from a warm moisture laden area. I could easily see this having a feb 13 style deform band out there. QPF is the last indicator I'd consider right now. The 500mb evolution will hopefully continue to improve and precip will follow along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Minor improvements from 60 hrs on, northern stream dove a bit more south and the energy was consolidated a bit more at the back of the trough to sharpen it up some. Not nearly enough obviously, but small improvements 3 1/2 days out isnt the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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