USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 How do we know the Navgem has s progressive bias. The Nogaps used to but it's been upgraded multiple times. People always say this but I've never seen any proof. This is the best I could findhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.onr.navy.mil/reports/FY14/mmwang.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiE5uPz57TYAhWlg-AKHW0ZDPAQFghWMAU&usg=AOvVaw0PZmrlklSbpeIPOeQijYAFThat being said, since it's update in 2012/13, I have seen many a time whenever large mid latitude cyclones are predicted east of the navgem on models, they tend to correct West. Scientific? No. Info I don't have the time to do more in depth research currently (work). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Northern stream Vort def stronger and further south already on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It definitely still has it from what I've seen. Especially on coastal lows. I know the last 2-3 winters its been west of the GFS on several occasions 3-5 days out and the end track has been west of the NavGEM 5 day forecast the old NoGaps used to be a great indicator of when something was coming west. if the nogaps was west, it was a hit because nogaps was always east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Still wouldn’t rule this one out for NYC. Wouldn’t take much at all to move this 75 miles west or so and make this a very nice event even into E NJ. A little more stream interaction sooner will do it, and there’s still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, USCG RS said: This is the best I could findhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.onr.navy.mil/reports/FY14/mmwang.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiE5uPz57TYAhWlg-AKHW0ZDPAQFghWMAU&usg=AOvVaw0PZmrlklSbpeIPOeQijYAF That being said, since it's update in 2012/13, I have seen many a time whenever large mid latitude cyclones are predicted east of the navgem on models, they tend to correct West. Scientific? No. Info I don't have the time to do more in depth research currently (work). Thanks. And yea I agree. The Navgrm is amped up often in the midrange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just looking at 500 it looks much better, trough should be sharper, energy looks to wanna phase slightly faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wayyy stronger northern Vort, influencing our southern energy more this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 At the very least this should be a tick West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro has snow into SC/GA AND NC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro looks to be about 25-50 miles west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Snowing into Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 We need more than ticks West. Come on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z Thursday light snow for everyone, moderate snow reaching south jersey and philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, snow1 said: We need more than ticks West. Come on euro Keep in mind the Euro was already giving us a few inches of snow even west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euros west but the double barrel still there drags LP to convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros west but the double barrel still there drags LP to convection Remember how the models kept going to the blob to the east with jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Another odd run, initially West with LP, as well as precip, but as it pulls up, it really Robs the energy and pulls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Time to start the thread @WeatherFeen2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Time to start the thread @WeatherFeen2000 12/4 Mega Fish bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Another odd run, initially West with LP, as well as precip, but as it pulls up, it really Robs the energy and pulls out How does the EURO get moderate snow to Philly but miss the sub forum? Must have been a major jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12/31 12z Summary: NYC QPF GFS: Trace GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 (ELI Crushed 1.75) UKMET: 0.05 - 0.15 ECM: 0.10 - 0.25 GEFS EPS GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Time to start the thread @WeatherFeen2000 Lol. It's not Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The theme remains that southern energy-we need it to be slower. That running out ahead of the trough causes the low to form too far out at sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The cold air this thing will drag down is really impressive, probably -20 or lower windchills too. Highs on Fri/Sat could be in the single digits for many. I'm seeing a stronger -AO dip and +PNA increase over the past few days, that suggests a more western track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z Euro stormvista snowmap. 4-5 inches for NYC on the Euro 7-8 inches for eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How does the EURO get moderate snow to Philly but miss the sub forum? Must have been a major jump. Drags all precip out over Atlantic convection, euro is double barreled again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How does the EURO get moderate snow to Philly but miss the sub forum? Must have been a major jump. NYC boroughs are 4"-7" on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Drags all precip out over Atlantic convection, euro is double barreled again Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 i still feel like this could turn into "be careful what you wish for" for eastern areas. this system has a lot of warm air with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12z Euro stormvista snowmap. 4-5 inches for NYC on the Euro 7-8 inches for eastern LI Is that the Kuchina ratio or 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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