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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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How do we know the Navgem has s progressive bias.  The Nogaps used to but it's been upgraded multiple times.  People always say this but I've never seen any proof.  
This is the best I could find

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.onr.navy.mil/reports/FY14/mmwang.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiE5uPz57TYAhWlg-AKHW0ZDPAQFghWMAU&usg=AOvVaw0PZmrlklSbpeIPOeQijYAF

That being said, since it's update in 2012/13, I have seen many a time whenever large mid latitude cyclones are predicted east of the navgem on models, they tend to correct West. Scientific? No. Info I don't have the time to do more in depth research currently (work).
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17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It definitely still has it from what I've seen.  Especially on coastal lows.  I know the last 2-3 winters its been west of the GFS on several occasions 3-5 days out and the end track has been west of the NavGEM 5 day forecast

the old NoGaps used to be a great indicator of when something was coming west.  if the nogaps was west, it was a hit because nogaps was always east.

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15 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This is the best I could find

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.onr.navy.mil/reports/FY14/mmwang.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiE5uPz57TYAhWlg-AKHW0ZDPAQFghWMAU&usg=AOvVaw0PZmrlklSbpeIPOeQijYAF

That being said, since it's update in 2012/13, I have seen many a time whenever large mid latitude cyclones are predicted east of the navgem on models, they tend to correct West. Scientific? No. Info I don't have the time to do more in depth research currently (work).

Thanks.  And yea I agree.  The Navgrm is amped up often in the midrange.  

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