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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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One analog for this event could be from December 5th, 1981.  Very intense SLP formed well east of Cape Cod and brought up to 2' of snow to SE MA.  The similarity is the very strong northerly winds that are modeled with this upcoming system.  There was enough of an onshore vector to bring the heavy snow into SE MA.  Further west the downsloping from the mountains in central and northern NE resulted in much lower amounts going west in CT and western MA.  The NYC area got nothing but strong winds and virga.  This seems to match well with what the models are putting out.

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12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

One analog for this event could be from December 5th, 1981.  Very intense SLP formed well east of Cape Cod and brought up to 2' of snow to SE MA.  The similarity is the very strong northerly winds that are modeled with this upcoming system.  There was enough of an onshore vector to bring the heavy snow into SE MA.  Further west the downsloping from the mountains in central and northern NE resulted in much lower amounts going west in CT and western MA.  The NYC area got nothing but strong winds and virga.  This seems to match well with what the models are putting out.

Remember that storm very well living in Worcester MA at that time.  One of my favorite as a snow crazy  kid.  18 inches in the town of Shrewsbury.  It was awesome. 

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12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Most places do. You ever live in the upper midwest? I have and snow wise it's as boring as hell. Lot's of ridiculous cold and you can go numerous winters without a 6 inch snowfall.

I got lucky in that my only Midwestern winter was 98-99 and Chicago had their 2nd biggest snowfall in record at the time. 

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32 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:
Good to see nothing has changed on the NAVGEM

Another red flag that Op mods are too far East.

How do we know the Navgem has s progressive bias.  The Nogaps used to but it's been upgraded multiple times.  People always say this but I've never seen any proof.  

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The UKMET might also have the precip way west of the low because it has 1 inch to NYC and 8 for ERN LI
With the isobar structure and the look aloft at 60-84 hrs, I would venture to say the UK is almost a crushing hit. It appears the phase just escapes, and I mean JUST escapes.
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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

How do we know the Navgem has s progressive bias.  The Nogaps used to but it's been upgraded multiple times.  People always say this but I've never seen any proof.  

It definitely still has it from what I've seen.  Especially on coastal lows.  I know the last 2-3 winters its been west of the GFS on several occasions 3-5 days out and the end track has been west of the NavGEM 5 day forecast

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It definitely still has it from what I've seen.  Especially on coastal lows.  I know the last 2-3 winters its been west of the GFS on several occasions 3-5 days out and the end track has been west of the NavGEM 5 day forecast

I've seen the Navgem more amped up than the other models in the midrange more often than not.  

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