Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The pattern is one that is filled with potential. That the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF now show the storm, though with differing solutions, is an encouraging thing. Still, it's about a week away, so things can still change. That was prob the best run of the Euro I've ever seen at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yeah if not the best fantasy run ever it's top 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeaaaaa, it shows a trough negatively tilting and phasing over the upper Midwest. When you see that, it’s the weather equivalent of Aaron Judge at the plate about to swing for a grand slam. Some late nights incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 And the cold shows no sign of abating behind the monster either. Back in the deep freezer until the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Roughly 2" of liquid all snow, probably some mixing on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The precip output looks Boxing Day 2010 like. Massive deform zone over E NJ/NYC/western NE and drier patches northeast of that from the low stacking. There’s a 2.7” liquid as snow spot just south of JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This place isn’t broke yet? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wouldn't worry about sweet spots or liquid yet. I've found that with the best storms, this timeframe is for seeing multiple models grab onto the energy, trof and airmass, then around 120-96 focusing on 500mb and vort maps and finally looking at qpf 24-48...just an observation. I always like to go back and look at the discussion and model evolution of past great storms like Jan 16, where we were seeing great consensus around 120-96 hrs out and compare. Sometimes, it provides a reality check on what is one fantasy run and what has real potential. I do cautiously like this tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The precip output looks Boxing Day 2010 like. Massive deform zone over E NJ/NYC/western NE and drier patches northeast of that from the low stacking. There’s a 2.7” liquid as snow spot just south of JFK. Monmouth County Jackpot on the Euro. Just saw the precip output map in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 What's going for this storm that the failed weekend monster didn't have is transient blocking showing up along with no kickers out west. I'm still concerned with the blocking though. The models been having a tendency to weaken or lose the feature in future runs. Thats why I"m cautiously optimistic at this point. I would say sound the alarms if this strong storm signal is still here on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And the cold shows no sign of abating behind the monster either. Back in the deep freezer until the end of the run. The EPO block just keeps reloading...perhaps the La Niña forcing won’t be enough to overwhelm the pattern. We’ll have to see where the pattern goes after the 8th of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The precip output looks Boxing Day 2010 like. Massive deform zone over E NJ/NYC/western NE and drier patches northeast of that from the low stacking. There’s a 2.7” liquid as snow spot just south of JFK. My area =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On that track, it's like a tropical storm of snow. 30-40 inch potential with stupendous rates. But that's a comment on the model run, not a forecast. The rates I already can guarantee because I'm under this energy out here now (think it would be the same packet that rotates around base of trough to interact with Bahamas low, and how often do you have a Bahamas low involved in a snowstorm?) -- my rates have been near 2" an hour even though the system is little more than an inverted trough, and flakes are quite large. Melted some down and estimate it's 25:1, at very least 20:1 ratios. So there you go, sampling the potential storm at an early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro transient block around Newfoundland is about 500 miles further west than 12z GFS. No shock, but so is the entire system. High potential for bust here, but something big may be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 And of course this will change 100 times, but for now at least some weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12/28 12z Summary 1/3 - 1/4 Storm GFS: Scraper 0.25 - 0.45 (more NE) GEFS: 0.40 - 0.50 GGEM: Scraper 0.20 - 0.35 GEPS: ECM: 2.01 (crushed) JMA: EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 We did just go through the same big storm threat last week so I'm not buying anything here. I think this has a better chance to do something, but more can go wrong than right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Enigma said: Euro transient block around Newfoundland is about 500 miles further west than 12z GFS. No shock, but so is the entire system. High potential for bust here, but something big may be in the cards. Notice the PNA connects with the transient block over NF. That drops the AO into negative territory. It’s a very fragile setup going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro control is a 947 low offshore Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Did u see the control....lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 EPS mean is skewed east due to multiple weak LP's. Essentially, if something strong forms, the track will be much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Lol @ this......candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol @ this......candy #SandyReduxBlizzicane2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Newman said: #SandyReduxBlizzicane2018 #SnowNado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol @ this......candy Why does the Euro Control run tend to show these extreme solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Notice the PNA connects with the transient block over NF. That drops the AO into negative territory. It’s a very fragile setup going forward Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely. We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent. Strong words of caution are advised right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely. We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent. Strong words of caution are advised right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.