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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The pattern is one that is filled with potential. That the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF now show the storm, though with differing solutions, is an encouraging thing. Still, it's about a week away, so things can still change.

That was prob the best run of the Euro I've ever seen at 500 mb.  

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Wouldn't worry about sweet spots or liquid yet.  I've found that with the best storms, this timeframe is for seeing multiple models grab onto the energy, trof and airmass, then around 120-96 focusing on 500mb and vort maps and finally looking at qpf 24-48...just an observation.  I always like to go back and look at the discussion and model evolution of past great storms like Jan 16, where we were seeing great consensus around 120-96 hrs out and compare.  Sometimes, it provides a reality check on what is one fantasy run and what has real potential.  I do cautiously like this tho.

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The precip output looks Boxing Day 2010 like. Massive deform zone over E NJ/NYC/western NE and drier patches northeast of that from the low stacking. There’s a 2.7” liquid as snow spot just south of JFK. :lmao: 

Monmouth County Jackpot on the Euro.  Just saw the precip output map in the NE thread.  

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What's going for this storm that the failed weekend monster didn't have is transient blocking showing up along with no kickers out west. I'm still concerned with the blocking though. The models been having a tendency to weaken or lose the feature in future runs. Thats why I"m cautiously optimistic at this point. I would say sound the alarms if this strong storm signal is still here on Monday.

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And the cold shows no sign of abating behind the monster either. Back in the deep freezer until the end of the run. 

The EPO block just keeps reloading...perhaps the La Niña forcing won’t be enough to overwhelm the pattern.   We’ll have to see where the pattern goes after the 8th of January 

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On that track, it's like a tropical storm of snow. 30-40 inch potential with stupendous rates. But that's a comment on the model run, not a forecast. The rates I already can guarantee because I'm under this energy out here now (think it would be the same packet that rotates around base of trough to interact with Bahamas low, and how often do you have a Bahamas low involved in a snowstorm?) -- my rates have been near 2" an hour even though the system is little more than an inverted trough, and flakes are quite large. Melted some down and estimate it's 25:1, at very least 20:1 ratios. So there you go, sampling the potential storm at an early stage. 

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11 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Euro transient block around Newfoundland is about 500 miles further west than 12z GFS. No shock, but so is the entire system. High potential for bust here, but something big may be in the cards.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

Notice the PNA connects with the transient block over NF.  That drops the AO into negative territory.    It’s a very fragile setup going forward 

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17 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Notice the PNA connects with the transient block over NF.  That drops the AO into negative territory.    It’s a very fragile setup going forward 

Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely.

We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent.

Strong words of caution are advised right now.

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4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely.

We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent.

Strong words of caution are advised right now.

nNWO5iu.gif

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