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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My hunch is if the NAM ran out to 120 that low is going over top of us

are you talking about the low riding up the coast from near the Bahamas ? Please explain how the 500mb has changed to cause this major shift west.

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1 minute ago, North and West said:


What does that mean to non-meteorologists?


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Spare energy that’s unphased is out ahead of the southern energy helping to creat the storm, that energy put ahead being amped, causes it to draw the surface low, if the northern energy can dive quicker, and enhance the southern vort, we can get the “extra’ energy out ahead pulled back and in turn get our surface low tucked in, this will also allow for a quicker phase/trough inversion

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7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Spare energy that’s unphased is out ahead of the southern energy helping to creat the storm, that energy put ahead being amped, causes it to draw the surface low, if the northern energy can dive quicker, and enhance the southern vort, we can get the “extra’ energy out ahead pulled back and in turn get our surface low tucked in, this will also allow for a quicker phase/trough inversion

what do you think the actual chances of this happening are ??? Also does anyone have an analog storm for this setup -??? I can't find one - not even on here http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/Weather.html - Also would be nice if one of the Mets or someone else that has time can extend and update this for the last few seasons

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Spare energy that’s unphased is out ahead of the southern energy helping to creat the storm, that energy put ahead being amped, causes it to draw the surface low, if the northern energy can dive quicker, and enhance the southern vort, we can get the “extra’ energy out ahead pulled back and in turn get our surface low tucked in, this will also allow for a quicker phase/trough inversion

Thanks! If we want snow, we want this?


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12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what do you think the actual chances of this happening are ??? Also does anyone have an analog storm for this setup -??? I can't find one - not even on here http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/Weather.html - Also would be nice if one of the Mets or someone else that has time can extend and update this for the last few seasons

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure you can find one here:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

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24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This has an eastern New England storm written all over it. Eastern Long Island May get some of it too

Well not if we get this low another 100 miles west the whole forum is in play. Remember the euro is the best model and has accumulating snow for us. The ukmet is a great model had backed off a little but let's see what it says today. Also cmc is decent lately and looks decent for 3-6 more as u go east. Usually 3 days before the storm happens u get another trend I just hope it' a west trend so by tomorrow afternoon we should really see where we stand. I'm not writing anything off yet. Were still about 100 hours away and all we really need is 100 miles . The cmc and gfs just gave us 75 each at least.

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