Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some really serious garbage posts tonight. So we have the best model on our side. This is exactly why all the model hugging gets you no where. This “storm” is still an eternity away. I like the idea of this being an eastern LI and NE special. The storm signal is all that’s needed now. These storms like to follow the Gulf Stream that’s why a track within 100 miles of the bench mark are so common. The difference here is a track 100 miles east of the benchmark is most likely. This pulls the Deform band out over the twin forks and eastern NE. If we use Boxing Day as an example this would put most of our area out of the big snows. In that storm once over the PA line it was a non event. That could easily be the city this time around I think best case scenario is we get something like Jan 2015. That's basically what you described above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Cobalt said: 12-18" for Central-Eastern Long Island See for yourself 15:1 ratios I like this better, around 8 inches for here and 18" for Central Suffolk- which interestingly as much anyone in SENE gets. Sort of like Jan 2015 with lower amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Kuchera is a different ratio system, and I'm not sure how it works, but it's useful in marginal temperature situations, or where there is cold air and temperatures are nowhere near an issue. Temps are in the mid 20s, and so that's probably why ratios are a bit higher. Ratios seem to be a tad bullish though, but something like 11-16" isn't far fetched with this type of setup. It's more like 15:1 ratio not 20:1 so it's realistic. If it was 20:1 that 18" would have been more like 22" since the max was around 11" in the 10:1 Kuchera map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some really serious garbage posts tonight. So we have the best model on our side. This is exactly why all the model hugging gets you no where. This “storm” is still an eternity away. I like the idea of this being an eastern LI and NE special. The storm signal is all that’s needed now. These storms like to follow the Gulf Stream that’s why a track within 100 miles of the bench mark are so common. The difference here is a track 100 miles east of the benchmark is most likely. This pulls the Deform band out over the twin forks and eastern NE. If we use Boxing Day as an example this would put most of our area out of the big snows. In that storm once over the PA line it was a non event. That could easily be the city this time around Ya unfortunately I have to second this post. Maybe rename this "January 2018 Model Hugging Thread?" In all seriousness, not the best of news tonight and this could very well whiff. But the EURO's not punting the storm back towards Bermuda with over 120 hours to go means that we are all very much still in the game here. Obviously, those further north and east are in much better shape, but this one's worthy of some continued attention for all in this subforum IMO. By Monday, we will be in a better position to determine who, if anyone (or everyone), here will miss out. Storm signal's still there. At this lead time, that's a decent place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro has a high of 7 for NYC on Friday after the big storm and a low of -1 for Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Metasequoia said: 10:1 Ratio It's going to be more than 10 :1 if we do get a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a high of 7 for NYC on Friday after the big storm and a low of -1 for Saturday morning I would love to see something like this, even more than a big snowstorm right now, and the low would be colder than -1 if the high was 7 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Gfs 6z run is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 EURO precipitation shield hugs coast from Florida to New England. A little shove west now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The whole double barreled low idea has to be BS. I would say maybe 10% of major systems off the East Coast have this occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The risk in a situation like this is the convection forms too far east of Florida and the main low further east takes over. The eastern low pulls the precip shield further east than people want to see from Philly to NYC. That's what the EPS has had so many runs in a row east of the BM. I did see one Met on twitter saying that is why the NavGEM is so far west saying that its unable to resolve the convective influence idea that the GFS/Euro/UKMET can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think after the 12z runs tomorrow we will be able to say either go or no go on this potential storm. My gut says the Euro ticks east at 12z today but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The EPS was east of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Is there any record of a KU event in NYC that began east of the Bahamas? Seems like most of the big miller A snow events in NYC that get going this far south originate in the Gulf and not east of the Bahamas. No KU event that I'm aware of but there has probably been some sort of SECS event which produced over 4 inches that did. I just don't remember it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No KU event that I'm aware of but there has probably been some sort of SECS event which produced over 4 inches that did. I just don't remember it, 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The whole double barreled low idea has to be BS. I would say maybe 10% of major systems off the East Coast have this occur. The models that show the double barreled low structure looks extremely suspect, lows will never be that close to each other. Lows don’t like to co-exist right next to each other. Most likely convective feedback on those models. The spacing between would be vastly different/much further apart IMO if that really even does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: Is there any record of a KU event in NYC that began east of the Bahamas? Seems like most of the big miller A snow events in NYC that get going this far south originate in the Gulf and not east of the Bahamas. definitely agree on that point-it would need something to tug it N or NW if it starts out so far east...the northern stream digging in etc. No -NAO hurts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: definitely agree on that point-it would need something to tug it N or NW if it starts out so far east...the northern stream digging in etc. No -NAO hurts too Its tough for us due for the cold dry look. Luckily we cashed in yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 WPC Discussion and qpf EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 153 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2017 VALID 12Z WED JAN 03 2018 - 12Z SUN JAN 07 2018 ...OVERVIEW... DOWNSTREAM FROM A WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MEAN RIDGE, STRONG EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL SUPPORT RAPIDLY DEEPENING WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY BECOME QUITE INTENSE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY AROUND EARLY FRI. FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S., A LEADING SHORTWAVE/EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL STEADILY WEAKEN WED-THU AS IT HEADS INTO THE MEAN RIDGE. THEN UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ULTIMATE SHAPE/PROGRESSION OF THE ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. OVERALL THIS PROGRESSION OF FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY A WARMING TREND OVER THE PLAINS. ...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND PREFERENCES... NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COMPONENTS INVOLVED, GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE MID-LATE WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS THROUGH THE 12Z/18Z CYCLES HAVE BEEN SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL THAT THE SURFACE LOW COULD REACH A DEPTH IN THE 950'S/LOW 960'S MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AROUND EARLY FRI. RECENT UKMET RUNS, WHICH HAVE TENDED TO BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD, DEEPEN ONLY INTO THE 970'S MB. IN THE NEW 00Z CYCLE THUS FAR, THE GFS IS STILL EXTREMELY DEEP WHILE THE UKMET HAS ADJUSTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. BOTH 00Z UKMET/CMC RUNS ONLY DEEPEN TO THE 970'S MB. THE DEEPEST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A COMMON THEME OF INTENSIFYING THE LEADING SOUTHEAST U.S. SHORTWAVE AS IT CROSSES THE ATLANTIC, ON A SMALL ENOUGH SCALE TO TEMPER CONFIDENCE IN A DAYS 3-5 FORECAST. HOWEVER TRENDS OVER THE PAST DAY HAVE BEEN TOWARD A SHARPER, SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS FOR FLOW DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FROM CANADA-- WHICH DOES INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME PREFER A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FINE DETAILS WHICH WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WORK OUT. AS FOR TRACK THERE HAS BEEN DECENT CONTINUITY IN CONSENSUS SHOWING INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY WED WITH A MOST LIKELY PATH EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 00Z CMC STILL SUGGEST A SURFACE CENTER (WHETHER CONSOLIDATED OR ONE OF TWO SEPARATE CENTERS) COULD GET CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS NARROWED CONSIDERABLY FOR THE INITIAL EAST PACIFIC TROUGH/EMBEDDED UPPER LOW QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MEAN RIDGE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD SLOWER PROGRESSION, WITH OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND GEFS MEAN TENDING TO REFLECT THE SLOWER TIMING BETTER THAN THE ECMWF MEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH EXACTLY HOW UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY MAY SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BY DAY 5 FRI, WITH FURTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS AS ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND/OR SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MOST NOTABLE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN TOWARD SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL TROUGH IN THE ECMWF/CMC MEANS AND FOR GFS/GEFS MEANS TO BRING SOMEWHAT MORE ENERGY INTO/THROUGH THE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING GUIDANCE CLOSER IN PRINCIPLE EVEN THOUGH SPECIFICS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERSE. AS GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD THE PREFERENCE GOES MORE TOWARD A GEFS/ECMWF MEAN COMPROMISE AS THE BEST PLACEHOLDER UNTIL THERE IS GREATER CLARITY. BY DAY 7 WOULD ULTIMATELY EXPECT A MORE DEFINED PATTERN OVER THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED, AND SOME OPERATIONAL RUNS PLUS 12Z CMC MEAN SUGGEST THAT ENERGY ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A SOUTHERN CANADA-NORTHERN TIER U.S. LOW/FRONT WITH FASTER TIMING THAN THE GEFS/ECMWF MEANS. THE LATEST FORECAST CONSISTED OF PRIMARILY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE EARLY (12Z-18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND LESS 12Z CMC) FOLLOWED BY INCREASING 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEAN INPUT SO THAT MODEL/MEAN WEIGHTING WAS ABOUT 50/50 DAY 5 FRI AND 70 PERCENT TOWARD THE MEANS BY DAY 7 SUN. THIS SOLUTION PROVIDED BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONTINUITY WITH MOST ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST. ...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL REINFORCE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WITH ONE OR MORE DAYS OF TEMPS 20-30F BELOW NORMAL. PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE COLDER READINGS THAN THAT AROUND FRI-SAT AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. FRI-SAT SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR DAILY RECORD LOW/COLD HIGH READINGS. POTENTIALLY VERY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY FRI MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIP NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL WITH RESPECT TO ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS VARIED OVER THE DAYS FOR PRECIP IMPACTS, A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST, GENERATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING AROUND ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 If you're looking for some hope, the NAVGEM looks nice. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The whole double barreled low idea has to be BS. I would say maybe 10% of major systems off the East Coast have this occur. Jan 2016 was modeled a double barreled low for many runs by the models until very close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: If you're looking for some hope, the NAVGEM looks nice. FWIW. Yea Long Island does ok... even navgems a NE special tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Because of that amplified lead southern Vort, even western models have an incredibly sharp western shield gradient, only about 150 give or take miles of precip from the surface LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The SREFS were way west at 81 vs the prior run at 87. But from 81-87 they look headed for Iceland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Is there any record of a KU event in NYC that began east of the Bahamas? Seems like most of the big miller A snow events in NYC that get going this far south originate in the Gulf and not east of the Bahamas. If the center jumps east to that convection it's going east. Want that phased 6 hours earlier or it will be a New England special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nams night and day better, our northern stream energy really dives hr 72 influences our southern sw...granted not reliable but signs this needs to get sampled on mainland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams night and day better, our northern stream energy really dives hr 72 influences our southern sw...granted not reliable but signs this needs to get sampled on mainland at what time will everything be sampled on the mainland so we have a better depiction on the models and not the huge run to run changes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: at what time will everything be sampled on the mainland so we have a better depiction on the models and not the huge run to run changes?? Tomorrow’s run should 00z should start to come close imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams night and day better, our northern stream energy really dives hr 72 influences our southern sw...granted not reliable but signs this needs to get sampled on mainland Is this causing the southern sw to be that much stronger? At 78 it looks the the low is actually east, but stronger so the preicp shield is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Is this causing the southern sw to be that much stronger? At 78 it looks the the low is actually east, but stronger so the preicp shield is closer to the coast. The low is east at 78 because of the divorced convection in the Atlantic, notice next few panel wanna wrap our pesky Atlantic vort max back into the flow...imo Nam if finished would be well West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The low is east at 78 because of the divorced convection in the Atlantic, notice next few panel wanna wrap our pesky Atlantic vort max back into the flow...imo Nam if finished would be well West My hunch is if the NAM ran out to 120 that low is going over top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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