USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Problem is each model has only had a big hit once or twice and mostly they've been misses. Now we have things trend back east again. Not what we needed to seeThe issue is the complexity of h5. You have the PV in no man's land, no sampling. You have the northern and southern streams which are not even sampled yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Most places do. You ever live in the upper midwest? I have and snow wise it's as boring as hell. Lot's of ridiculous cold and you can go numerous winters without a 6 inch snowfall.Difference is you don't have the temperature gradient that can be set up in the Midwest with the oceanic heat the Atlantic generates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: I am kind of amazed at how frequently we actually do get big snows around here given that everything really needs to come together timing wise from such a chaotic assortment of vorts and pieces of energy along with just the right blocking, ridge and trough axes for proximal track and phasing. But then again, we do get more mosses than hits. A lot of those patterns are better than what we have right now. In a pattern like this you need everything to be perfect. In "big storm patterns" you have a larger margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 46 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: GEFS are west. You mean compared to its previous run? Using TT's looking at sfc pressure, the mean appears slightly east (by maybe 10 miles) than last run with less spread towards the west and more spread towards the east. I'd post images, but I only have my phone with me atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro is certainly West of 12z run. Great considering the 0z suite has not been kind for anyone on the East coast wanting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'm hearing that the Euro is farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: I'm hearing that the Euro is farther west. It certainly is. Big hit for Long Island, just about WSW criteria for NYC (maybe a bit less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It certainly is. Big hit for Long Island, just about WSW criteria for NYC (maybe a bit less)What's big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: It certainly is. Big hit for Long Island, just about WSW criteria for NYC (maybe a bit less) Ok not bad. I still think the storm is going to be a non-story for this area. Too much has to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It's almost like somebody is behind the scenes manipulating each model to mess with the weenies, all hope dashed and lights out on all 0z runs then the euro comes back in and flips them on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 12-18" for Central-Eastern Long Island See for yourself That's using 20:1 ratio I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: That's using 20:1 ratio I believe Kuchera is a different ratio system, and I'm not sure how it works, but it's useful in marginal temperature situations, or where there is cold air and temperatures are nowhere near an issue. Temps are in the mid 20s, and so that's probably why ratios are a bit higher. Ratios seem to be a tad bullish though, but something like 11-16" isn't far fetched with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10:1 Ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 10:1 Ratio Why does it look so weak compared to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 10:1 Ratio Great thing to see after everything seemed to be going wrong on the 0z suite. Was it similar to the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Great thing to see after everything seemed to be going wrong on the 0z suite. Was it similar to the ukmet? Apparently, UKIE was a decent hit for SE New England. My guess is probably a bit East of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Apparently, UKIE was a decent hit for SE New England. My guess is probably a bit East of the Euro. What would it take to get Thursday's numbers again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 10:1 Ratio There is no 12-18" on this map 5 inches here.......double digits (10-11 inches) isolated on parts of Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, kingbaus said: What would it take to get Thursday's numbers again? I have no idea. That Thursday run was a weenie run though, especially since it somehow had double digits in MBY lol. I'll be here though, since the first step to actually see snowflakes in mby is for this to trend West, this is the first step. Westward trend might help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: There is no 12-18" on this map 5 inches here.......double digits (10-11 inches) isolated on parts of Eastern LI. That was due to using Kuchera ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: There is no 12-18" on this map 5 inches here.......double digits (10-11 inches) isolated on parts of Eastern LI. It says at the top the max is 12.3. It's out in the ocean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 What would it take to get Thursday's numbers again?50/50 not being sheared out which allows the heights to rise. This in turn allows phasing further down the ec. This in turn allows the storm to ride closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Apparently, UKIE was a decent hit for SE New England. My guess is probably a bit East of the Euro. 0Z UKIE FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 0Z UKIE FWIW Euro tends to follow the Ukie 95% of the time.Side note : 0z navgem was about 40/70 BM. Red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 50 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's almost like somebody is behind the scenes manipulating each model to mess with the weenies, all hope dashed and lights out on all 0z runs then the euro comes back in and flips them on. Some really serious garbage posts tonight. So we have the best model on our side. This is exactly why all the model hugging gets you no where. This “storm” is still an eternity away. I like the idea of this being an eastern LI and NE special. The storm signal is all that’s needed now. These storms like to follow the Gulf Stream that’s why a track within 100 miles of the bench mark are so common. The difference here is a track 100 miles east of the benchmark is most likely. This pulls the Deform band out over the twin forks and eastern NE. If we use Boxing Day as an example this would put most of our area out of the big snows. In that storm once over the PA line it was a non event. That could easily be the city this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Guidance went further east tonight, not what we wanted, but nothing we control. Too much disjointedness in the streams. Still time to reverse back west, but only if the southern stream can slow up and allow the northern stream to phase in time. Hopefully that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Looks like the EPS is a little to the east. Damn it!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Guidance went further east tonight, not what we wanted, but nothing we control. Too much disjointedness in the streams. Still time to reverse back west, but only if the southern stream can slow up and allow the northern stream to phase in time. Hopefully that can happen. Looks like we need more time with the southern stream to catch up with the northern stream. I liked how the euro ticked west tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: I have no idea. That Thursday run was a weenie run though, especially since it somehow had double digits in MBY lol. I'll be here though, since the first step to actually see snowflakes in mby is for this to trend West, this is the first step. Westward trend might help as well. Wasn't that the run with the 940 mb low and 100 mph Sandy-like winds? Yeah, don't believe that can happen lol. Our strongest winter storms- at least at this latitude- have been in the 960 mb realm. So the chances of getting a 940 mb at our latitude in the winter are similar to getting a Cat 4 hurricane hit up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Northern stream is stronger than 0z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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