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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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Problem is each model has only had a big hit once or twice and mostly they've been misses. Now we have things trend back east again. Not what we needed to see
The issue is the complexity of h5. You have the PV in no man's land, no sampling. You have the northern and southern streams which are not even sampled yet either.
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Most places do. You ever live in the upper midwest? I have and snow wise it's as boring as hell. Lot's of ridiculous cold and you can go numerous winters without a 6 inch snowfall.
Difference is you don't have the temperature gradient that can be set up in the Midwest with the oceanic heat the Atlantic generates
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1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

I am kind of amazed at how frequently we actually do  get big snows around here given that everything really needs to come together timing wise from such a chaotic assortment of vorts and pieces of energy along with just the right blocking, ridge and trough axes for proximal track and phasing.  But then again, we do get more mosses than hits. 

A lot of those patterns are better than what we have right now.

In a pattern like this you need everything to be perfect.

In "big storm patterns" you have a larger margin of error.

 

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46 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

GEFS are west.

You mean compared to its previous run? Using TT's looking at sfc pressure, the mean appears slightly east (by maybe 10 miles) than last run with less spread towards the west and more spread towards the east.

I'd post images, but I only have my phone with me atm.

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That's using 20:1 ratio I believe

Kuchera is a different ratio system, and I'm not sure how it works, but it's useful in marginal temperature situations, or where there is cold air and temperatures are nowhere near an issue. Temps are in the mid 20s, and so that's probably why ratios are a bit higher. Ratios seem to be a tad bullish though, but something like 11-16" isn't far fetched with this type of setup. 

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Just now, kingbaus said:

What would it take to get Thursday's numbers again?

I have no idea. That Thursday run was a weenie run though, especially since it somehow had double digits in MBY lol. I'll be here though, since the first step to actually see snowflakes in mby is for this to trend West, this is the first step. Westward trend might help as well. 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's almost like somebody is behind the scenes manipulating each model to mess with the weenies, all hope dashed and lights out on all 0z runs then the euro comes back in and flips them on.

 

 

Some really serious garbage posts tonight. So we have the best model on our side. This is exactly why all the model hugging gets you no where. This “storm” is still an eternity away. 

I like the idea of this being an eastern LI and NE special. The storm signal is all that’s needed now. These storms like to follow the Gulf Stream that’s why a track within 100 miles of the bench mark are so common. The difference here is a track 100 miles east of the benchmark is most likely. This pulls the Deform band out over the twin forks and eastern NE. If we use Boxing Day as an example this would put most of our area out of the big snows. In that storm once over the PA line it was a non event. That could easily be the city this time around 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Guidance went further east tonight, not what we wanted, but nothing we control. Too much disjointedness in the streams. Still time to reverse back west, but only if the southern stream can slow up and allow the northern stream to phase in time. Hopefully that can happen. 

Looks like we need more time with the southern stream to catch up with the northern stream. I liked how the euro ticked west tonight.

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I have no idea. That Thursday run was a weenie run though, especially since it somehow had double digits in MBY lol. I'll be here though, since the first step to actually see snowflakes in mby is for this to trend West, this is the first step. Westward trend might help as well. 

 

 

Wasn't that the run with the 940 mb low and 100 mph Sandy-like winds?

Yeah, don't believe that can happen lol.

Our strongest winter storms- at least at this latitude- have been in the 960 mb realm.

So the chances of getting a 940 mb at our latitude in the winter are similar to getting a Cat 4 hurricane hit up here.

 

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