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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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I am kind of amazed at how frequently we actually do  get big snows around here given that everything really needs to come together timing wise from such a chaotic assortment of vorts and pieces of energy along with just the right blocking, ridge and trough axes for proximal track and phasing.  But then again, we do get more mosses than hits. 

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Hm, maybe the NAM was onto something... :yikes:
 Here's our issue, we have a screaming flow for the most part. We also have a plethora of Vorts within the southern and northern streams as well as the PV which is going to play a role. The models are having a very hard time resolving these factors which plays a huge role in the eventual outcome.
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7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Even if this system produces little or no snow, there will be very potent cold behind it.

That's been the issue. Classic cold patterns in the N MA are not necessarily classic snow patterns.

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19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am kind of amazed at how frequently we actually do  get big snows around here given that everything really needs to come together timing wise from such a chaotic assortment of vorts and pieces of energy along with just the right blocking, ridge and trough axes for proximal track and phasing.  But then again, we do get more mosses than hits. 

Most places do. You ever live in the upper midwest? I have and snow wise it's as boring as hell. Lot's of ridiculous cold and you can go numerous winters without a 6 inch snowfall.

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Can't write this off 5 days out. Give it to at least Monday.

With the March 2017 "blizzard" NYC was poised to get an enormous accumulation but the westward trend kept moving west and west and west 24 hours out and when all was said and done  NYC lost support for all snow and got a few inches while North and West were measuring snow in feet.  So give it a bit more time !

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IMHO, this was never a true threat for NYC and west. There's still 5 days and I think tonight's runs are too far east with the SLP, mostly due to difficulty handling H5. I'm not buying the double barrel low structure either.

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Just now, sferic said:

Can't write this off 5 days out. Give it to at least Monday.

With the March 2017 "blizzard" NYC was poised to get an enormous accumulation but the westward trend kept moving west and west and west 24 hours out and when all was said and done  NYC lost support for all snow and got a few inches while North and West were measuring snow in feet.  So give it a bit more time !

Problem is each model has only had a big hit once or twice and mostly they've been misses. Now we have things trend back east again. Not what we needed to see

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