UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Energy over Atlantic from previous runs is pulled back this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Northern streams the issue, not sharp enough... we get some and lose some lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Back to where it was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wipe rinse repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The double low center was more consolidated from the start and went 100 miles further east by our latitude. Montauk Pt. barely scratched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GGEM is the same, bad northern stream energy. It’s a little better at the last second for ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Energy over Atlantic from previous runs is pulled back this run The YanksFan vortmax running out ahead? I was going to say it looked more distinctly divorced from the phase versus 18z, back in line with most runs prior to this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 days out not really too concerned with Run to run swings... majority of suites brought our southern energy back a bit and I’m good with that this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hm, maybe the NAM was onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I am kind of amazed at how frequently we actually do get big snows around here given that everything really needs to come together timing wise from such a chaotic assortment of vorts and pieces of energy along with just the right blocking, ridge and trough axes for proximal track and phasing. But then again, we do get more mosses than hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Gfs has a high of 8 for NYC on Friday and a low of 1 on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This is probably a lost cause, especially for inland areas, but it's definitely still worth keeping on the backburner. Even though you can see the flaws when you scrutinize a prog like this, it's hard to hate the broader picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hm, maybe the NAM was onto something... Here's our issue, we have a screaming flow for the most part. We also have a plethora of Vorts within the southern and northern streams as well as the PV which is going to play a role. The models are having a very hard time resolving these factors which plays a huge role in the eventual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ukie is east. Have a gn folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a high of 8 for NYC on Friday and a low of 1 on Saturday. Even if this system produces little or no snow, there will be very potent cold behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Even if this system produces little or no snow, there will be very potent cold behind it. That's been the issue. Classic cold patterns in the N MA are not necessarily classic snow patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Very concerned the ukie trended east. Not what we needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a high of 8 for NYC on Friday and a low of 1 on Saturday. To 50s and rain 3 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Enigma said: That's been the issue. Classic cold patterns in the N MA are not necessarily classic snow patterns. I agree with that. Cold doesn't mean snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I am kind of amazed at how frequently we actually do get big snows around here given that everything really needs to come together timing wise from such a chaotic assortment of vorts and pieces of energy along with just the right blocking, ridge and trough axes for proximal track and phasing. But then again, we do get more mosses than hits. Most places do. You ever live in the upper midwest? I have and snow wise it's as boring as hell. Lot's of ridiculous cold and you can go numerous winters without a 6 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, JerseyWx said: I agree with that. Cold doesn't mean snow. Who wants this kinda cold if it’s not going to snow with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: To 50s and rain 3 days later Two weeks of cold with only an inch of snow to show for it followed by 50s and rain then back to cold, a cruel joke by mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: Who wants this kinda cold if it’s not going to snow with it Well no one does, but the reality is that we can finish this cold spell with very little to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This threat is already trending in the wrong direction for us. East trend is real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Can't write this off 5 days out. Give it to at least Monday. With the March 2017 "blizzard" NYC was poised to get an enormous accumulation but the westward trend kept moving west and west and west 24 hours out and when all was said and done NYC lost support for all snow and got a few inches while North and West were measuring snow in feet. So give it a bit more time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 IMHO, this was never a true threat for NYC and west. There's still 5 days and I think tonight's runs are too far east with the SLP, mostly due to difficulty handling H5. I'm not buying the double barrel low structure either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, sferic said: Can't write this off 5 days out. Give it to at least Monday. With the March 2017 "blizzard" NYC was poised to get an enormous accumulation but the westward trend kept moving west and west and west 24 hours out and when all was said and done NYC lost support for all snow and got a few inches while North and West were measuring snow in feet. So give it a bit more time ! Problem is each model has only had a big hit once or twice and mostly they've been misses. Now we have things trend back east again. Not what we needed to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, snow1 said: This threat is already trending in the wrong direction for us. East trend is real! More like back and forth. In one day the models waffled a lot. An continued east trend all day would be concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEFS are west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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