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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes

C74FE51B-E28B-4907-9964-0A24FFBF06D7.gif

this is an optical illusion caused by a deeper system look at the pressure drops as compared to the earlier run - more wrapped up and outer portion nudged west - also its more important at this stage of the game to pay more attention to 500mb and not the surface features as they will be jumping all over the place

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38 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Our upper level low 

Would this be considered a bonafide triple phaser like March 1993?  If so this might be the one case where a triple phaser is needed to take the classic track, usually triple phasers at our latitude cut or hug.  But with the pattern we have right now, a triple phaser could take a BM track.

Thinking of that 940mb monster the Euro showed a few days ago.

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Would this be considered a bonafide triple phaser like March 1993?  If so this might be the one case where a triple phaser is needed to take the classic track, usually triple phasers at our latitude cut or hug.  But with the pattern we have right now, a triple phaser could take a BM track.

Thinking of that 940mb monster the Euro showed a few days ago.

The issue is how far out ahead the southern stream is getting and spawning the low out at sea. We want that to slow down so the low doesn’t form so far out. The northern stream diving in will try to tug it in but it’ll be easier if the streams can phase sooner. 

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Doesn't the NAVGEM have a tendency to suppress storms? Seems like the GFS and NAVGEM are usually in that camp
Actually.. Navgem is very useful. It has a very progressive bias. When Navgem is west of other models... Look for a correction west with the other models.
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9 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
40 minutes ago, Cobalt said:
Doesn't the NAVGEM have a tendency to suppress storms? Seems like the GFS and NAVGEM are usually in that camp

Actually.. Navgem is very useful. It has a very progressive bias. When Navgem is west of other models... Look for a correction west with the other models.

It used to have a progressive bias.  I'm not so sure anymore.   I really don't have any idea.  People love saying it though.  

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

RGEM outta range but a good sign...wayyyyy West 

12D2A6F1-F6BD-44B2-A4E7-54C4FA749634.png

whats the frame/hours before that show did that snow area pass over NJ ? That precip field looks suspect on the northwest side - but actually better to be following the 500mb at this point

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