Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Is there still time for another 150-mile shift to the west? At least we're getting baby steps closer. Easily. It's within model error at this range. And it can easily be 150 miles east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Enigma said: H5 on GFS is highly suspect. We need this to close off. What's suspect about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The one good thing I am liking is we are roughly 4.5 days away from the start of the potential event and are seeing positive trends for a snowier solution for us. We are obviously not there quite yet and with the model volatility so far this winter it is prudent to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherlogix said: A FEB in the late 90's had a storm that backed in off the ocean...city had 2-3" and E LI had 15-20" Pretty much, but not quite that dramatic: http://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html It was a monster on Cape Cod. NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Pretty much, but not quite that dramatic: http://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html It was a monster on Cape Cod. NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM That’s still is not a major east coast storm for Long Island and ZERO in the city as @Enigma declared. Try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 No, Enema is citing something much more dramatic. I can't recall any such storms and I'd remember if I was on the snowy side of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Southern wave is weaker, and west, northern stream energy has more influence to pull the southern stream in In layman’s terms, what does that mean?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, North and West said: In layman’s terms, what does that mean? . There’s 2 main players besides our upper level low... a northern stream piece of energy and southern stream piece.. if the southern energy is too progressive, the northern energy will act as a kicker a boot our energy OTS... if the southern stream is slower and less amplified than the northern stream energy, it will back flow the southern stream into the northern stream quicker, resulting in a quicker phase, and in turn helping the trough go negative quicker, wich THEN in turn pulls our surface low west and tucks it into coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, North and West said: In layman’s terms, what does that mean? . There are two pieces of energy creating the storm. One is south and one is north. Eventually the two pieces of energy "phase" and become one. The northern one acts as an axis to swing the storm up the coast. If the southern piece is weaker and slower it gets caught by the northern energy sooner and the axis of the trough on the east coast is more favorable for the storm to ride the coast instead of out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: There’s 2 main players besides our upper level low... a northern stream piece of energy and southern stream piece.. if the southern energy is too progressive, the northern energy will act as a kicker a boot our energy OTS... if the southern stream is slower and less amplified than the northern stream energy, it will back flow the southern stream into the northern stream quicker, resulting in a quicker phase, and in turn helping the trough go negative quicker, witch THEN in turn pulls our surface low west and tucks it into coast... I like how incredibly similar our posts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Nibor said: I like how incredibly similar our posts are. Hahaha we were literally typing simultaneously lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Timing and speed are everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: There are two pieces of energy creating the storm. One is south and one is north. Eventually the two pieces of energy "phase" and become one. The northern one acts as an axis to swing the storm up the coast. If the southern piece is weaker and slower it gets caught by the northern energy sooner and the axis of the trough on the east coast is more favorable for the storm to ride the coast instead of out to sea. Notice how we’re trending, Southern feature noted over Atlantic here, northern stream digging deeper and more amplified, allows for the weaker southern stream to get back flowed, resulting in negative trough axis... cudos to yanks for noticing alour pesky southern feature a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, North and West said: By the way, whether or not you love snow and cold, early January is a terrific time to go to Disney! Few crowds, good prices! Enjoy your trip. We’re going on a Disney Cruise later in the month. Hopefully no big storms while we’re gone! . My wife put you up to this didn't she ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Notice how we’re trending, Southern feature noted over Atlantic here, northern stream digging deeper and more amplified, allows for the weaker southern stream to get back flowed, resulting in negative trough axis... cudos to yanks for noticing alour pesky southern feature a few days ago Yeah the key to this has been a triple phase where all pieces come together into the trough. That third piece is still phasing in a tad late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 WPC still east with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah the key to this has been a triple phase where all pieces come together into the trough. That third piece is still phasing in a tad late. What is the third piece? Sorry, like others still trying to learn. As others stated, the northern energy combining with the southern energy creates the storm, right? What is piece #3 that would make it a triple phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 My wife put you up to this didn't she ? Great minds think alike!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Thank you to Nibor and UlsterCountySnow! Makes me miss The Weather Channel of the Early 1990s from when I was a kid. Perfect explanation! I really appreciate it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mike1984 said: What is the third piece? Sorry, like others still trying to learn. As others stated, the northern energy combining with the southern energy creates the storm, right? What is piece #3 that would make it a triple phase? Our upper level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, mike1984 said: What is the third piece? Sorry, like others still trying to learn. As others stated, the northern energy combining with the southern energy creates the storm, right? What is piece #3 that would make it a triple phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ok got it. Thanks. i thought the combining of the two created the low. Again, just a newbie fascinated with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GEFS surprisingly looked like they jumped east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GEFS surprisingly looked like they jumped east That is certainly something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GEFS surprisingly looked like they jumped east Looks West to me, but not by a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Looks West, but not by a whole lot. Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Hahaha we were literally typing simultaneously lmao Showoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes I see it now. Just 2 members skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks like a decent jump east to my eyesConsidering the navgem... Gefs is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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