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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, weatherlogix said:

A FEB in the late 90's had a storm that backed in off the ocean...city had 2-3" and E LI had 15-20"

Pretty much, but not quite that dramatic:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

It was a monster on Cape Cod.

Sat-990225-16z.jpg

 

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT

MONTAUK                SUFFOLK        13.5    730 AM
EAST HAMPTON           SUFFOLK        10.0    700 AM
SHINECOCK              SUFFOLK         8.5    730 AM
BRIDGEHAMPTON          SUFFOLK         8.5    700 AM
ORIENT POINT           SUFFOLK         8.0    700 AM
NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN  SUFFOLK         6.4    700 AM
PATCHOGUE              SUFFOLK         5.9    700 AM
RIDGE                  SUFFOLK         5.0    730 AM
MOUNT SINAI            SUFFOLK         4.7    700 AM
FARMINGVILLE           SUFFOLK         4.6    800 AM
SOUTH SETAUKET         SUFFOLK         4.5    800 AM
RONKONKOMA             SUFFOLK         4.0    700 AM
ISLIP                  SUFFOLK         3.0    700 AM
CENTERPORT             SUFFOLK         2.8    800 AM
FARMINGDALE            NASSAU          2.0    700 AM
OCEANSIDE              NASSAU          1.8    600 AM
NORTH MASSAPEQUA       NASSAU          1.5    700 AM
LA GUARDIA AP          QUEENS          2.0    700 AM
KENNEDY AP             QUEENS          1.0    700 AM
GRAVES END BROOKLYN    KINGS           1.2    800 AM
CENTRAL PARK           NEW YORK        1.5    700 AM
WHITE PLAINS           WESTCHESTER     1.3    700 AM
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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Pretty much, but not quite that dramatic:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

It was a monster on Cape Cod.

Sat-990225-16z.jpg

 

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT


MONTAUK                SUFFOLK        13.5    730 AM
EAST HAMPTON           SUFFOLK        10.0    700 AM
SHINECOCK              SUFFOLK         8.5    730 AM
BRIDGEHAMPTON          SUFFOLK         8.5    700 AM
ORIENT POINT           SUFFOLK         8.0    700 AM
NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN  SUFFOLK         6.4    700 AM
PATCHOGUE              SUFFOLK         5.9    700 AM
RIDGE                  SUFFOLK         5.0    730 AM
MOUNT SINAI            SUFFOLK         4.7    700 AM
FARMINGVILLE           SUFFOLK         4.6    800 AM
SOUTH SETAUKET         SUFFOLK         4.5    800 AM
RONKONKOMA             SUFFOLK         4.0    700 AM
ISLIP                  SUFFOLK         3.0    700 AM
CENTERPORT             SUFFOLK         2.8    800 AM
FARMINGDALE            NASSAU          2.0    700 AM
OCEANSIDE              NASSAU          1.8    600 AM
NORTH MASSAPEQUA       NASSAU          1.5    700 AM
LA GUARDIA AP          QUEENS          2.0    700 AM
KENNEDY AP             QUEENS          1.0    700 AM
GRAVES END BROOKLYN    KINGS           1.2    800 AM
CENTRAL PARK           NEW YORK        1.5    700 AM
WHITE PLAINS           WESTCHESTER     1.3    700 AM

That’s still is not a major east coast storm for Long Island and ZERO in the city as @Enigma declared. 

 

Try again. 

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8 minutes ago, North and West said:


In layman’s terms, what does that mean?


.

There’s 2 main players besides our upper level low... a northern stream piece of energy and southern stream piece.. if the southern energy is too progressive, the northern energy will act as a kicker a boot our energy OTS... if the southern stream is slower and less amplified than the northern stream energy, it will back flow the southern stream into the northern stream quicker, resulting in a quicker phase, and in turn helping the trough go negative quicker, wich THEN in turn pulls our surface low west and tucks it into coast... 

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5 minutes ago, North and West said:


In layman’s terms, what does that mean?


.

There are two pieces of energy creating the storm. One is south and one is north. Eventually the two pieces of energy "phase" and become one. The northern one acts as an axis to swing the storm up the coast. If the southern piece is weaker and slower it gets caught by the northern energy sooner and the axis of the trough on the east coast is more favorable for the storm to ride the coast instead of out to sea.

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

There’s 2 main players besides our upper level low... a northern stream piece of energy and southern stream piece.. if the southern energy is too progressive, the northern energy will act as a kicker a boot our energy OTS... if the southern stream is slower and less amplified than the northern stream energy, it will back flow the southern stream into the northern stream quicker, resulting in a quicker phase, and in turn helping the trough go negative quicker, witch THEN in turn pulls our surface low west and tucks it into coast... 

I like how incredibly similar our posts are.

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3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

There are two pieces of energy creating the storm. One is south and one is north. Eventually the two pieces of energy "phase" and become one. The northern one acts as an axis to swing the storm up the coast. If the southern piece is weaker and slower it gets caught by the northern energy sooner and the axis of the trough on the east coast is more favorable for the storm to ride the coast instead of out to sea.

Notice how we’re trending, Southern feature noted over Atlantic here, northern stream digging deeper and more amplified, allows for the weaker southern stream to get back flowed, resulting in negative trough axis...

 

cudos to yanks for noticing alour pesky southern feature a few days ago

25110B56-2846-4EFB-A216-77FE713F582C.gif

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1 hour ago, North and West said:


By the way, whether or not you love snow and cold, early January is a terrific time to go to Disney! Few crowds, good prices! Enjoy your trip. We’re going on a Disney Cruise later in the month. Hopefully no big storms while we’re gone! emoji51.png


.

My wife put you up to this didn't she ? 

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5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Notice how we’re trending, Southern feature noted over Atlantic here, northern stream digging deeper and more amplified, allows for the weaker southern stream to get back flowed, resulting in negative trough axis...

 

cudos to yanks for noticing alour pesky southern feature a few days ago

25110B56-2846-4EFB-A216-77FE713F582C.gif

Yeah the key to this has been a triple phase where all pieces come together into the trough. That third piece is still phasing in a tad late.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah the key to this has been a triple phase where all pieces come together into the trough. That third piece is still phasing in a tad late.

What is the third piece? Sorry, like others still trying to learn.

As others stated, the northern energy combining with the southern energy creates the storm, right? What is piece #3 that would make it a triple phase? 

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