SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, weatherlogix said: A FEB in the late 90's had a storm that backed in off the ocean... 2/25/99. Montauk had like a foot but not much west of the Hamptons. 2 feet on Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: 2/25/99. Montauk had like a foot but not much west of the Hamptons. 2 feet on Nantucket Thats the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this can very easily trend west given the type of system it is Could you explain a little bit...Just trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, Enigma said: Look harder. There are at least two storms I can't think of in the early 2000's. This is based on pattern recognition and climatology. Such as? How does climatology argue for a MECS for LI but not measurable for NYC? And what about the pattern makes you think it can’t tick West by 75 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Could you explain a little bit...Just trying to learn A phased system can really deepen and in essence be pulled northwest towards the coast. Plus there looks to be some ridging in the North Atlantic which may help to push the storm nw. of course there is a chance the storms foes too Far East based on the sharpness of the trough, but there is potential for it to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 lol subtle , that didn't take long to correct huh. Now you're literary 150 miles or so away with 5 days to play with. I need a phase 6 hours earlier too so my Disney flight gets cxld at 8 am on the 4th. Need am 1am start time and I'm good. BTW look at the NEG off the WC , that just has to sit back a bit more and the trough axis gets tugged By the way, whether or not you love snow and cold, early January is a terrific time to go to Disney! Few crowds, good prices! Enjoy your trip. We’re going on a Disney Cruise later in the month. Hopefully no big storms while we’re gone! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I know it's the NAM @ 84 hours, but it pretty much looks aligned with the other Western model solutions/ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A phased system can really deepen and in essence be pulled northwest towards the coast. Plus there looks to be some ridging in the North Atlantic which may help to push the storm nw. of course there is a chance the storms foes too Far East based on the sharpness of the trough, but there is potential for it to come west.Thank you for the easy explanation!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: That EPS is like perfect for out this way at this range. Myself and @tim approve. ...i definitely approve!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Posting this in here for better viewing. Mods feel free to move if need be. DT (WxRisk) not convinced. GUARDING SOME TALK ABOUT JAN 4-5 EAST COAST SNOWSTORM.... I REMAIN UNCONVINCED. Some of the weather hobbyists and weenies have posted some of the overnight weather models which take the coastal storm /LOW and bring it a little closer to the coast and bring the snow Shield closer to the coastal areas. However being 500 Miles off the coast versus 300 miles off the coast is still off the coast!! The midday weather models from the GFS and the European are very similar and the British model is also pretty similar. The problemS 1) the upper air pattern not supporting a coastal storm 2) is that the low forms off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas. This means that the low has to track straight North and have no Eastward component to the track as it comes north paralleling the coast. This is almost impossible given the upper air pattern. There is no blocking in the jet stream over Eastern Canada which would keep this low pressure area from tracking straight North. It is going to track in the Northeast Direction which will keep it off the coast. Eastern New England and Southeastern Canada as well as maine have an excellent chance of being hammered by this big snow storm. 3) The other point that you should be aware of is that if you notice many of the weather models show 2 areas of low pressure. The midday GFS has this as does the European and the British model. This is not going to be the case. We are not going to have a ocean storm/ Low with two equally strong centers of low pressure 100 miles apart. If the main low is the Eastern low than the system will be even further off the coast of the models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 While the trends have continued to be good today I am cautious on this being something substantial for us (for now) and will be much more confident after the 00z runs Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I agree with DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 If DT isn't on board then I'm definitely on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, Enigma said: I agree with DT. Dt says it’s impossible, that’s laughable... there’s plenty of ways to slow the flow, especially being this far out, if the northern stream digs further south, it will slow the flow drawing the southern wave back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gfs has the low further west at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The PNA ridge out west is in a perfect position on the 12z European. Talk about a 180 from just 24 hours ago when this storm was near the azores lol Just wait a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs has the low further west at hr 84 Digging deeper too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Earlier phase is going on with this run. Let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gfs is certainly coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 In DT's defensive he is a good met and is good at recognizing patterns but this certainly isn't the first time he has downplayed an event that has actually happened, if things continue to trend positively for snow I am sure he will come around to the idea at some point. Like every other met out there he has had his good calls and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs is certainly coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs is certainly coming west Yeah not enough for anyone west of LI but quite a run to run shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Going to mostly miss to the east still but improvements at 500 mb yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Southern wave is weaker, and west, northern stream energy has more influence to pull the southern stream in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just missing it needs another 50-mile shift to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah not enough for anyone west of LI but quite a run to run shift Decent jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: Just missing it needs another 50-mile shift to the west. 150 miles would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: 150 miles would be nice. Is there still time for another 150-mile shift to the west? At least we're getting baby steps closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 H5 on GFS is highly suspect. We need this to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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