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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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20 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Look harder. There are at least two storms I can't think of in the early 2000's. This is based on pattern recognition and climatology.

Such as? How does climatology argue for a MECS for LI but not measurable for NYC? And what about the pattern makes you think it can’t tick West by 75 miles?

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6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Could you explain a little bit...Just trying to learn

A phased system can really deepen and in essence be pulled northwest towards the coast. Plus there looks to be some ridging in the North Atlantic which may help to push the storm nw.

of course there is a chance the storms foes too Far East based on the sharpness of the trough, but there is potential for it to come west.

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lol subtle ,  that didn't take long to correct huh.
Now you're literary 150 miles or so away with 5 days to play with.
I need a phase 6 hours earlier too so my Disney flight gets cxld at 8 am on the 4th.
Need am 1am start time and I'm good.
BTW look at the NEG off  the WC , that just has to sit back a bit more and the trough axis gets tugged 

By the way, whether or not you love snow and cold, early January is a terrific time to go to Disney! Few crowds, good prices! Enjoy your trip. We’re going on a Disney Cruise later in the month. Hopefully no big storms while we’re gone!


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A phased system can really deepen and in essence be pulled northwest towards the coast. Plus there looks to be some ridging in the North Atlantic which may help to push the storm nw.
of course there is a chance the storms foes too Far East based on the sharpness of the trough, but there is potential for it to come west.

Thank you for the easy explanation!


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Posting this in here for better viewing. Mods feel free to move if need be. DT  (WxRisk) not convinced.

 

GUARDING SOME TALK ABOUT JAN 4-5 EAST COAST SNOWSTORM....

I REMAIN UNCONVINCED. Some of the weather hobbyists and weenies have posted some of the overnight weather models which take the coastal storm /LOW and bring it a little closer to the coast and bring the snow Shield closer to the coastal areas.

However being 500 Miles off the coast versus 300 miles off the coast is still off the coast!!

The midday weather models from the GFS and the European are very similar and the British model is also pretty similar. The problemS

1) the upper air pattern not supporting a coastal storm

2) is that the low forms off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas. This means that the low has to track straight North and have no Eastward component to the track as it comes north paralleling the coast.

This is almost impossible given the upper air pattern. There is no blocking in the jet stream over Eastern Canada which would keep this low pressure area from tracking straight North. It is going to track in the Northeast Direction which will keep it off the coast. Eastern New England and Southeastern Canada as well as maine have an excellent chance of being hammered by this big snow storm.

3) The other point that you should be aware of is that if you notice many of the weather models show 2 areas of low pressure. The midday GFS has this as does the European and the British model. This is not going to be the case. We are not going to have a ocean storm/ Low with two equally strong centers of low pressure 100 miles apart. If the main low is the Eastern low than the system will be even further off the coast of the models are depicting.

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In DT's defensive he is a good met and is good at recognizing patterns but this certainly isn't the first time he has downplayed an event that has actually happened, if things continue to trend positively for snow I am sure he will come around to the idea at some point. Like every other met out there he has had his good calls and bad.

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