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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

This has potential for our entire subforum as of now.  We are 5 days out

Definitely still a lot of potential. 10 years ago, given today's Euro, I'd be skeptical of much change in the next 5 days. However, recent track record of the Euro exhibits that it can no longer be as trusted in the medium range.

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2 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Definitely still a lot of potential. 10 years ago, given today's Euro, I'd be skeptical of much change in the next 5 days. However, recent track record of the Euro exhibits that it can no longer be as trusted in the medium range.

I saw this posted elsewhere but look at the 500mb change in 24 hours. It's ridiculous.

5a47da5072a67_ScreenShot2017-12-30at1_25_58PM.png.c32699ddc67cd6958263125be156828c.png

5a47da512eda7_ScreenShot2017-12-30at1_26_07PM.png.16d4b5e9388ad6c02d4c9bb40a787c93.png

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I saw this posted elsewhere but look at the 500mb change in 24 hours. It's ridiculous.

5a47da5072a67_ScreenShot2017-12-30at1_25_58PM.png.c32699ddc67cd6958263125be156828c.png

5a47da512eda7_ScreenShot2017-12-30at1_26_07PM.png.16d4b5e9388ad6c02d4c9bb40a787c93.png

The PNA ridge out west is in a perfect position on the 12z European.  Talk about a 180 from just 24 hours ago when this storm was near the azores lol 

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9 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

You just said like 3 hours ago that NYC had only a 20% shot at anything measurable...

Correct. I think this is a LI and New England MECS with 20% chance of NYC measurable. 5% chance SECS. I should have added earlier than I think the UKMet precip shield is too far west/inland given the airmass in place.

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41 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Correct. I think this is a LI and New England MECS with 20% chance of NYC measurable. 5% chance SECS. I should have added earlier than I think the UKMet precip shield is too far west/inland given the airmass in place.

A MECS for LI but not measurable for NYC? Never seen that happen before. Any meteorological reason you think NYC won’t see measurable? Specific features please so I can understand. Thanks.

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EURO still has us in the BN precipitation zone, but latest run may have at least put Suffolk County in play.  Normal precipitation for us would be about 1.0", over the next 7 days, so when you subtract out our deficit as indicated---it does not leave us much to work with.   At end of run gap starts to close with the next system, which could be rain/snow mix---rotten luck.

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13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To my eye seems a tick east. Possibly cause it lost the canal crossers.

In addition to what the transient blocking looks like near Newfoundland, the exact location of the best convection east of the Bahamas will be important. Further west with the convection and stronger with the transient block will get this closer to the BM.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In addition to what the transient blocking looks like near Newfoundland, the exact location of the best convection east of the Bahamas will be important. Further west with the convection and stronger with the transient block will get this closer to the BM.

Thanks

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34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

A MECS for LI but not measurable for NYC? Never seen that happen before. Any meteorological reason you think NYC won’t see measurable? Specific features please so I can understand. Thanks.

Look harder. There are at least two storms I can't think of in the early 2000's. This is based on pattern recognition and climatology.

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