SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Could end up being a great hit for eastern New England, definite MECS potential for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 If the phase happens 6 hpurs earlier than it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Could end being a great hit for eastern New England, definite MECS potential for them. This has potential for our entire subforum as of now. We are 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: This has potential for our entire subforum as of now. We are 5 days out Definitely still a lot of potential. 10 years ago, given today's Euro, I'd be skeptical of much change in the next 5 days. However, recent track record of the Euro exhibits that it can no longer be as trusted in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EPS will tale the tale if the Ukie is indeed onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Much better than 00z although I thought low would be further west. Still a long way to go. Like the trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Enigma said: Definitely still a lot of potential. 10 years ago, given today's Euro, I'd be skeptical of much change in the next 5 days. However, recent track record of the Euro exhibits that it can no longer be as trusted in the medium range. I saw this posted elsewhere but look at the 500mb change in 24 hours. It's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Hopefully we can get the southern stream to slow down just a little more. That will enable a closer track as the northern stream can phase sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: I saw this posted elsewhere but look at the 500mb change in 24 hours. It's ridiculous. Those images tell everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: I saw this posted elsewhere but look at the 500mb change in 24 hours. It's ridiculous. The PNA ridge out west is in a perfect position on the 12z European. Talk about a 180 from just 24 hours ago when this storm was near the azores lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Dis anyone see precip for ukie/ wow... nearly 2" LE for all of I-95 even inland gets smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Dis anyone see precip for ukie/ wow... nearly 2" LE for all of I-95 even inland gets smoked It's on the previous page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I think the Euro will continue to play catch-up with the UKmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The 12Z GEFs gives us light snow on Thursday and or Friday a shift 100 miles west gives many in the metro a SECS at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z GEFs gives us light snow on Thursday and a shift 100 miles west gives many in the metro a SECS at least Furthest west GEFS from this past week had about 0.5 into the I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z GEFs gives us light snow on Thursday and or Friday a shift 100 miles west gives many in the metro a SECS at least Has it shifted west from 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Has it shifted west from 6z? 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: You just said like 3 hours ago that NYC had only a 20% shot at anything measurable... Correct. I think this is a LI and New England MECS with 20% chance of NYC measurable. 5% chance SECS. I should have added earlier than I think the UKMet precip shield is too far west/inland given the airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC snow map, includes today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 41 minutes ago, Enigma said: Correct. I think this is a LI and New England MECS with 20% chance of NYC measurable. 5% chance SECS. I should have added earlier than I think the UKMet precip shield is too far west/inland given the airmass in place. A MECS for LI but not measurable for NYC? Never seen that happen before. Any meteorological reason you think NYC won’t see measurable? Specific features please so I can understand. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That EPS is like perfect for out this way at this range. Myself and @tim approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EURO still has us in the BN precipitation zone, but latest run may have at least put Suffolk County in play. Normal precipitation for us would be about 1.0", over the next 7 days, so when you subtract out our deficit as indicated---it does not leave us much to work with. At end of run gap starts to close with the next system, which could be rain/snow mix---rotten luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 this can very easily trend west given the type of system it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: To my eye seems a tick east. Possibly cause it lost the canal crossers. In addition to what the transient blocking looks like near Newfoundland, the exact location of the best convection east of the Bahamas will be important. Further west with the convection and stronger with the transient block will get this closer to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: In addition to what the transient blocking looks like near Newfoundland, the exact location of the best convection east of the Bahamas will be important. Further west with the convection and stronger with the transient block will get this closer to the BM. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 34 minutes ago, psv88 said: A MECS for LI but not measurable for NYC? Never seen that happen before. Any meteorological reason you think NYC won’t see measurable? Specific features please so I can understand. Thanks. Look harder. There are at least two storms I can't think of in the early 2000's. This is based on pattern recognition and climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Can an evolution too far west lead to mixing issue like March 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: Can an evolution too far west lead to mixing issue like March 2017? Probably not with this track outside of BOS down to Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Enigma said: Look harder. There are at least two storms I can't think of in the early 2000's. This is based on pattern recognition and climatology. A FEB in the late 90's had a storm that backed in off the ocean...city had 2-3" and E LI had 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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