Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Enigma said: GEM is a New England special. Probably light event for NYC and MECS for E LI. My eyes aren't the best but i think the 25mm line makes it into Nassau and 10 to just west of NYC. Hard to tell though. And at day 5 that doesn't rather matter. Big jump west by the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Yeah, trends at this point are the important thing, not the precip outputs. The dumbbell lows mean the models are having a hard time with where to place it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: And at day 5 that doesn't rather matter. Huge jump west by the CMC. All we can really ask for at this point in time, a general trend to the west. Still lots of time for it to go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Maybe the Euro the other day isn't that farfetched lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: My eyes aren't the best but i think the 25mm line makes it into Nassau and 10 to just west of NYC. Hard to tell though. And at day 5 that doesn't rather matter. Huge jump west by the CMC. And looking beyond the details of where it snows, a huge storm blowing up off the east coast and that 486 partial thickness just north of the lakes ... brrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: My eyes aren't the best but i think the 25mm line makes it into Nassau and 10 to just west of NYC. Hard to tell though. And at day 5 that doesn't rather matter. Big jump west by the CMC. My point is this: we can hope that the shield moves west with future runs, but typically this sort of track for NYC Metro does not bode well for heavy snows. For E LI, it may be a homerun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Enigma said: My point is this: we can hope that the shield moves west with future runs, but typically this sort of track for NYC Metro does not bode well for heavy snows. For E LI, it may be a homerun. The current track maybe but its far from settled where the final track will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The current track maybe but its far from settled where the final track will be Boy do I wish we had blocking/-NAO. That would take all my worries away. His point is very valid. Without that -NAO, it could only be an eastern LI and on east special with sun getting a glancing blow. Let’s see what the EURO has to say soon. It is still very early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: Boy do I wish we had blocking/-NAO. That would take all my worries away. His point is very valid. Without that -NAO, it could only be an eastern LI and on east special with sun getting a glancing blow. Let’s see what the EURO has to say soon. It is still very early in the game. Of course but 24 hours ago nobody was in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Enigma said: My point is this: we can hope that the shield moves west with future runs, but typically this sort of track for NYC Metro does not bode well for heavy snows. For E LI, it may be a homerun. What track? The trends have been significantly west the last 24 hours. Still 5 days out but if intensifying low goes over benchmark then precip shield shifts west and NYC metro likely to see significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Boy do I wish we had blocking/-NAO. That would take all my worries away. His point is very valid. Without that -NAO, it could only be an eastern LI and on east special with sun getting a glancing blow. Let’s see what the EURO has to say soon. It is still very early in the game. A transient block near NF would be all you need, the problem is the timing has to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Oh my...Ukie is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Enigma said: My point is this: we can hope that the shield moves west with future runs, but typically this sort of track for NYC Metro does not bode well for heavy snows. For E LI, it may be a homerun. Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Too far out to be obsessed with precip but look how far up the coast this beast encompasses on the Ukie. Even back into western pa/upstate ny. Map courtesy of Allan Huffman on Twitter, where he fetched from weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What track? The trends have been significantly west the last 24 hours. Still 5 days out but if intensifying low goes over benchmark then precip shield shifts west and NYC metro likely to see significant snow. Again, historically (and you can look this up in KU) mid Lat cyclones developing SE of N MA typically spread SECS amounts in the NYC metro and MECS/HECS to New England. DEC 2000 is the one system I can recall where BOS went over to rain as the LP crossed the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Fair enough I can see the City getting 3 to 6 on that with high ratios. Especially with that initial overrunning on the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 If anything, SNE might not like that UK run due to the mid level tracks going too far west (dryslot). That looks like a Boxing Day 2010 outcome where deformation snow hung out over NJ, NYC and the Hudson Valley but east of there had dry air issues. Not taking anything verbatim of course but the ingredients are there for a real monster if it comes together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 anybody have the 12Z GEM ?? its stuck at 30 hours on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The model seems to struggle to develop the low near the coast closer to the trough, or further out at sea where the southern energy reaches. I doubt there’ll be this double barreled type low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: anybody have the 12Z GEM ?? its stuck at 30 hours on Tropical Tidbits Meteocentre models has it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Tail end of rgem 5 day comes right up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Meteocentre models has it out. Also Interesting the changeover line gets as far west as New Haven on the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Also Interesting the changeover line gets as far west as New Haven on the GEM. The western low near the trough brings up some warm air with it. Not sure if it’s a real feature or not, the actual low might be more wrapped up in between the two low positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The western low near the trough brings up some warm air with it. Not sure if it’s a real feature or not, the actual low might be more wrapped up in between the two low positions. NYC sees about 6 inches give or take on the GEM. 8 to 10 in Fairfield County CT. That's how close to the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The Euro looks like it’s going to bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The entire flow is more meridional and buckled on the ECMWF due to a stronger PNA ridge. This raises heights on the EC and provides a much more favorable path for the NS vort to enter. A stronger PNA ridge is absolutely critical in keeping the trough axis less progressive, and that is what we are seeing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 So close. Started to have that doubke-barreled look too. Big improvement yet again from it's last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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