weatherpruf Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Thank you , it's the same people spiking the ball days out over operational output without any understanding what was going on at 500 and why this was going to end up at the BM which made for unwanted participation. When we look at models we sometimes look for why the are wrong when there are bigger anomalies present. When you see a huge ridge and its axis that far west and something deepening that 960 where should the height falls be , for us it was a matter of time that it would correct there The rest comes dowh to its natural expansion of its precipitation field The kicker idea was hard to swallow as it was some very poorly sampled vort in a sparse data region and didn't dissuade us from looking at the bigger picture Not only that but some local pros were saying much the same, it wasn't like you were pulling it out of your arse.....I actually look for your posts to see what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This storm was also an unusual situation, like Forky said these systems typically stay far away from us. 9 out of 10 times this would've been a miss. DT felt that way too. I don't hug the models, once it was obvious the storm would have an impact I even favored a more western track despite models shifting east. But whatever fits your narrative and makes you sound better. The pettiness doesn't bother me, I'm just here to learn because I love this stuff. I’m sorry but Idk how people follow DT...his right ups look like a 6th grader wrote them or a weenie from here, I thought his stuff was a joke when I first heard about him...he hugs models more than I’ve seen the weenies in here....I don’t get his popularity I just don’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: No my man , that's where the storm was always suppose to be You keep thinking numerical models predict snowstorms , they dont You swing with every model run and never look outside of a thinly vieled run if it shows rain ,you yell rain . If it shows a whiff , you yell whiff As far as today's storm it didn't just magically appear " 50 mile closer " it was forecast 350 miles east of the BM 5 days ago and we knew it was wrong You keep thinking the model is going to give you the answer , you should look at a model as to why it should be right or wrong and not always take it verbatim There was a negative diving off the WC all week further and further west which was pulling the ridge back , when the model didn't reposition the height falls into the Arctic boundary on the east coast we knew it was wrong we didn't care what the models said A sub 960 Low with that ridge axis was always going to the BM And the mesos painted the drive N perfectly I posted that 4 days ago and at that time only the Caanadian got it / but that's not what I did it You guys keep making the same mistakes and same declarative statements in here You also posted the next 2 events were rain events , we don't know that yet Monday looks frozen and the cold dome of air in place should led you to at the very least question that too Its not gloating bud , it's a reminder as to not swallow every model output or it will make you sick I actually am not a big Steve D fan but he did a nice job explaining why this one turned out the way it did in his forecast the day before. After that it was a question of would the bands come west enough to get me into the game; they did but we were on the fringe here and got close enough for 6-8 inches and a solid event, we missed the huge bands but we were on the line and could have been even further out of the game. It was good to get a storm when it looked iffy early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: U have to work top down....no surface map....no qpf... True but you still have to look at how H5 translates to the surface and when this model gave some prime areas like Long Island and Boston such incredibly low amounts so close to the event, well, I'm going to say it didn't perform well. None of the globals performed well with this difficult setup. Frankly, I don't trust any of them beyond 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 30 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’m sorry but Idk how people follow DT...his right ups look like a 6th grader wrote them or a weenie from here, I thought his stuff was a joke when I first heard about him...he hugs models more than I’ve seen the weenies in here....I don’t get his popularity I just don’t I actually enjoy his video analysis. It’s far more coherent than his text posts. Similar to weather models you have to understand his biases, because he has quite a few. But overall I’ve learned a few things from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Thank you , it's the same people spiking the ball days out over operational output without any understanding what was going on at 500 and why this was going to end up at the BM which made for unwanted participation. When we look at models we sometimes look for why the are wrong when there are bigger anomalies present. When you see a huge ridge and its axis that far west and something deepening that 960 where should the height falls be , for us it was a matter of time that it would correct there The rest comes dowh to its natural expansion of its precipitation field The kicker idea was hard to swallow as it was some very poorly sampled vort in a sparse data region and didn't dissuade us from looking at the bigger picture You have certainly earned some bragging rights, Paul. Great job with this one! Painful as I am sure it is for you at times, I greatly appreciate that you continue to post here. Always look forward to your thoughts. Keep em coming! I'm guessing you and your fam did not make it down to Disney? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 hours ago, Eduardo said: You have certainly earned some bragging rights, Paul. Great job with this one! Painful as I am sure it is for you at times, I greatly appreciate that you continue to post here. Always look forward to your thoughts. Keep em coming! I'm guessing you and your fam did not make it down to Disney? Going the 20 - 25 which will be right in the middle of our 2 week warm up. Winter will return for the month of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Huge rainer on the Euro for late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Huge rainer on the Euro for late next week. Let's get this to 5 days and then we can talk. How can we take anything seriously after 5 days after what we have seen so far this winter lol That's the next storm that we have to watch. That would be the storm right before a brief pattern change. PNA looks nice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Let's get this to 5 days and then we can talk. How can we take anything seriously after 5 days after what we have seen so far this winter lol That's the next storm thst we have to watch. That would be the storm right before a brief pattern change. PNA looks nice . I was really referring to this storm. That big closed low with no blocking will likely result in a cutter. Now if we had some blocking, it would be a great setup for a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: It had it early then lost it , the high res NAM did well , like it did last January Hi res nam and the gem-lam ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 16 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hmmmmm , ya think Well, that’s what I get for trusting the Euro. Don’t worry it will never happen again. As far is I’m concerned, the Euro is not trustworthy anymore. They ruined that model with the “upgrade” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 How’s Monday’s snow “chance” looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 How cold can it get tomorrow and Sunday morning around the area with a deep snow cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Well, that’s what I get for trusting the Euro. Don’t worry it will never happen again. As far is I’m concerned, the Euro is not trustworthy anymore. They ruined that model with the “upgrade” The Euro has not been very good for quite some time. It is no better than UKIE or CMC and only slightly better than the GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, sferic said: How cold can it get tomorrow and Sunday morning around the area with a deep snow cover? I'm leaning towards 1-2 above in the city for Sunday morning. Seems like models have trended away from below zero temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back It’s better than in prior years but still flips around too much. Yes it did show the storm hitting our area last week but lost it in subsequent runs. In regards to next weeks potential, what are the days affected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back A foot of snow when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Kudos IBM deep thunder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: A foot of snow when? It shows a bizarre 72 hour rain to snow event starting next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It shows a bizarre 72 hour rain to snow event starting next Friday Any other model support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Any other model support? Most have a storm but not snow. The Euro had 2 to 3" of rain from Thurs night thru Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Most have a storm but not snow. The Euro had 2 to 3" of rain from Thurs night thru Saturday Yea if you look at 500 right now there’s not many ways to envision a snowstorm there, however with that said that is a very odd looking 500 presentation/evolution. I would not be surprised to see that shuffle around to more of a swfe with a possible late redeveloper, just given some of the moving pieces there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Kudos IBM deep thunder.... From that lead time out that is pretty remarkable. I cant pull it up on my phone really right now but for comparison take a look at the GFS and Euro from the same lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Yea if you look at 500 right now there’s not many ways to envision a snowstorm there, however with that said that is a very odd looking 500 presentation/evolution. I would not be surprised to see that shuffle around to more of a swfe with a possible late redeveloper, just given some of the moving pieces there. Obviously way out there but next Saturday looks like an odd convoluted scenario, maybe like you said some late revdeveloper/coastal transfer? Or maybe the models are right showing an inland/inside runner? The lack of cold air to start next Saturday may prove to be an issue though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Kudos IBM deep thunder.... It missed the heavy snow area in eastern NY and western CT where that band set up. Looks like it kept it further east. Otherwise it looks like it did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back If you go back on tt to the CMC runs well out ahead of yesterdays "mega bomb" you will see it was one of, if not the first to latch onto the western track AnD pretty much held steady 4 days out. Nobody wants to hear it but the CMC family have been a "GEM" this season, pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Most have a storm but not snow. The Euro had 2 to 3" of rain from Thurs night thru SaturdayEuro op is also cutting off the ull in the gulf which eventually gets phased causing the cutter look. Not really mich support for that. Even the eps has lp off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 First i should heed my own advice, but i urge caution this season out past 5 days. Too many 180s this year. With that said, irt to next weekend, GEPS has a coastal look with HP in Maine. 100% ideal? No. Decent signal to watch? Absolutely. I like the +PNA, -AO, war look. It could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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