jm1220 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 7:07 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: Agreed. Have a hard time believing NYC rains in this event. Expand Verbatim it looks like the low digs so far south and west of us that tons of warm air come in ahead of the low. That seems to be where the rain comes from. But it’s way too early obviously for anything definitive. GFS and Canadian have some snow showers with this basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We're going to have a very cold airmass in place, so it's hard to believe we'd rain with a good track. Odd what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 7:11 PM, Paragon said: That makes no sense on that track, if the storm hits the Cape that's a snow track for western Long Island- north or south shore. Millenium storm came ashore near Islip and was all snow here. Expand I never said the map was right. Just pointed out what it had. Could be right or wrong at this point, but pleased that there is a potential storm. Curious as to Don and Forky's thoughts are on this storm. However may be too early to opine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 6:57 PM, ag3 said: And nothing for NYC metro on the Euro but rain. Expand Plenty of snow for parts of NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 7:14 PM, jm1220 said: Verbatim it looks like the low digs so far south and west of us that tons of warm air come in ahead of the low. That seems to be where the rain comes from. But it’s way too early obviously for anything definitive. GFS and Canadian have some snow showers with this basically. Expand Is that a known bias of the Euro? Believe it or not with how well it's been doing recently, I'd look at the NAM over the Euro or GFS once we're within 48 hours of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Models will get a better handle on that system once the current one leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The Euro may very well be the winner this time around. This is a different setup vs previous events that have ended up less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Eps are very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 7:54 PM, Snow88 said: Eps are very impressive Expand They are too amped I think. At least the bigger members. I said if you take E34 and take everything south of TN/GA and move it west 100 miles and then take everything north of the NC/SC line and shift it east 100 that’s probably your most likely situation if this really cranks. Some of the tracks look like 1/87 shifted 100 miles west which simply doesn’t happen in the real world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 7:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: They are too amped I think. At least the bigger members. I said if you take E34 and take everything south of TN/GA and move it west 100 miles and then take everything north of the NC/SC line and shift it east 100 that’s probably your most likely situation if this really cranks. Some of the tracks look like 1/87 shifted 100 miles west which simply doesn’t happen in the real world Expand Majority are east of the op and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 8:01 PM, Snow88 said: Majority are east of the op and colder Expand There are just tons of various evolutions in there. Some are a phase. Others are no phase with the northern piece blowing up. Others seem to be north piece does nothing and southern blows up and even a few more just look unrealistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 6:57 PM, ag3 said: And nothing for NYC metro on the Euro but rain. Expand Perhaps you need a lesson in geography then. It's 6"+ for most of Northern NJ as soon as you get away from the city and much more than that once you get North of the Tappan Zee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 7:17 PM, BxEngine said: Plenty of snow for parts of NYC metro. Expand Thanks for posting this. I'm pretty sure the 1-2" it shows on Long Island is not rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I really like the look on the Euro with the big cutoff, but these can be incredibly tricky. They can be extremely rewarding when they work out, examples are 96' and Boxing Day. Main problem I see is that kicker coming down from Quebec. Just for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Gfs wants no part of a storm. Just a dying clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 10:06 PM, Stormlover74 said: Gfs wants no part of a storm. Just a dying clipper Expand Once the GFS locks in at this range (several days out), it's usually very, very stubborn in holding similar-looking solutions. Provided the EURO has a better idea with this system, the GFS will change course dramatically in a couple of days to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS was last to the party in forecasting our recent event. Kicker may be necessary in order to prevent a Delmarva SLP driving a wind blown rain event as it heads from ACY to Mount Pocono. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Gfs is honestly the worst model of all 4 majors (euro, uk, canadian) I personally think the navgem is better than the gfs and that’s a shame cause the gfs used to be way better. Not saying euro is good either. The people that are saying that the gfs doesn’t show a storm it does actually but it goes out to sea. I would give it until Monday until we could get a really clear consensus. Enjoy your weekend folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 10:40 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Gfs is honestly the worst model of all 4 majors (euro, uk, canadian) I personally think the navgem is better than the gfs and that’s a shame cause the gfs used to be way better. Not saying euro is good either. The people that are saying that the gfs doesn’t show a storm it does actually but it goes out to sea. I would give it until Monday until we could get a really clear consensus. Enjoy your weekend folks! Expand AVN was better than GFS but only went out to 144 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 10:06 PM, Stormlover74 said: Gfs wants no part of a storm. Just a dying clipper Expand I guess we should expect a blizzard then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 10:52 PM, Enigma said: AVN was better than GFS but only went out to 144 hr. Expand Even the AVN had serious issues. It would always drive the boundaries too far north on overrunning events and show rain when you'd get 6-8 hours of snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 11:46 PM, SnoSki14 said: I guess we should expect a blizzard then. Expand If anything the Euro has been horrible this winter with storms. Like off the charts bad. It has been the one wrong the majority of the time and caving to the other models as the storm approaches. It kills me to say that because I used to love the Euro but it definitely isn’t what it used to be, that is for sure. I have zero trust in what it shows for storms and treat it with extreme skepticism now, as should everyone else. Struggling this winter is an understatement for that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 1:06 AM, snowman19 said: If anything the Euro has been horrible this winter with storms. Like off the charts bad. It has been the one wrong the majority of the time and caving to the other models as the storm approaches. It kills me to say that because I used to love the Euro but it definitely isn’t what it used to be, that is for sure. I have zero trust in what it shows for storms and treat it with extreme skepticism now, as should everyone else. Struggling this winter is an understatement for that model Expand This setup is one though where the northern stream is less likely to overpower and destroy the setup which is why I think this time the Euro may end up correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/10/2018 at 6:19 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: 12z EURO is way east. Don't have temps, but it looks like a mix down to the city. Expand ukie is over 6+ for most, not nearly amped as euro with coastal, but strong clipper with coastal enhancement, then it really tucks into NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 2:41 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: ukie is over 6+ for most, not nearly amped as euro with coastal, but strong clipper with coastal enhancement, then it really tucks into NNE Expand I believe, but could be wrong, Nutleys post about the Euro was regarding today’s system. Either way your point stands tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 2:43 AM, JetsPens87 said: I believe, but could be wrong, Nutleys post about the Euro was regarding today’s system. Either way your point stands tho. Expand i didnt even mean to quote him lol...not sure why it was in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 idea of what euro looked like at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 2:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: i didnt even mean to quote him lol...not sure why it was in there Expand You got ukie precip map? And we’d appreciate it if you would post tonight’s precip maps too this is getting very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 2:50 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: idea of what euro looked like at the surface Expand That just looks great but I just don’t believe the coast is getting rain with that track! I expect that to correct tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 1:06 AM, snowman19 said: If anything the Euro has been horrible this winter with storms. Like off the charts bad. It has been the one wrong the majority of the time and caving to the other models as the storm approaches. It kills me to say that because I used to love the Euro but it definitely isn’t what it used to be, that is for sure. I have zero trust in what it shows for storms and treat it with extreme skepticism now, as should everyone else. Struggling this winter is an understatement for that model Expand Every model has been struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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