JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:24 PM, Snow88 said: Every news outlets show the rpm lol Expand Yes and it’s extremely irresponsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here's the 18z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:24 PM, JetsPens87 said: Yes and it’s extremely irresponsible Expand How often is that model even correct at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:24 PM, JetsPens87 said: Yes and it’s extremely irresponsible Expand Yeah, they could simply say some models hint at more. Not a Day after tomorrow solution it always comes up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:25 PM, EastonSN+ said: How often is that model even correct at this range? Expand Never ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:26 PM, JetsPens87 said: Never ever Expand Thanks. In all seriousness what are your thoughts on this storm, or too early to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like we miss the best action on the RGEM so close though need another 50 mile shift to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:30 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. In all seriousness what are your thoughts on this storm, or too early to tell? Expand I’ve got my reservations on this storm and have since it began popping up in modeling. A lack of a negative nao or any transient Atlantic block is really hurting the chances of all these vorts being forced to phase earlier than they are. With that said I still tend to think this leans west over the next few days per seasonal trends and I’d guess that at best a SECS is on the table for the interests of this subforum with not much room for more than that. The potent northern stream shortwave if it does not phase in time will act as a barrier to westward enhancement of the precip shield and that odd lead vort will pull things east. In the end... had we had a negative nao this would easily be a top 5 snowstorm for this area, though that could be said of many other systems to come through this area. Hence why we average what we do and not what Caribou, Maine does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 There’s still time IMO for this to be a significant event for most of us, but hopefully at 0z we see more significant jumps west. It’s not do or die time yet but it’s getting to crunch time where we want to see changes at the surface. Hopefully we all at least see something and add to our seasonal totals since it looks like the western extent of the snow goes pretty far-this won’t be a tightly wound system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:36 PM, JetsPens87 said: I’ve got my reservations on this storm and have since it began popping up in modeling. A lack of a negative nao or any transient Atlantic block is really hurting the chances of all these vorts being forced to phase earlier than they are. With that said I still tend to think this leans west over the next few days per seasonal trends and I’d guess that at best a SECS is on the table for the interests of this subforum with not much room for more than that. The potent northern stream shortwave if it does not phase in time will act as a barrier to westward enhancement of the precip shield and that odd lead vort will pull things east. In the end... had we had a negative nao this would easily be a top 5 snowstorm for this area, though that could be said of many other systems to come through this area. Hence why we average what we do and not what Caribou, Maine does. Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:12 PM, ILoveWinter said: Did it take a jog east? Expand It’s pretty similar to 12z but yes it took a jog east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The GGEM actually took a step in the wrong direction. Not so much in terms of low placement but less precip. Was not expecting that given the 12z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Anyone want to post the RGEM precip meteograms or map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:50 PM, EastonSN+ said: The GGEM actually took a step in the wrong direction. Not so much in terms of low placement but less precip. Was not expecting that given the 12z ensembles Expand You're confusing the RGEM and GGEM. The GGEM only runs twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:54 PM, H2Otown_WX said: You're confusing the RGEM and GGEM. The GGEM only runs twice a day. Expand Its on meteocentre models. Look different than the rgem posted before. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:59 PM, EastonSN+ said: Its on meteocentre models. Look different than the rgem posted before. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb Expand Basically it looks a little more like the UKMET with the precip jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Based off the jog east on the 18z RGEM, I’m expecting the CMC to also move east tonight at 0z from the 12z run earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:09 PM, snowman19 said: Based off the jog east on the 18z RGEM, I’m expecting the CMC to also move east tonight at 0z from the 12z run earlier Expand So you are thinking no storm at all for our area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:09 PM, snowman19 said: Based off the jog east on the 18z RGEM, I’m expecting the CMC to also move east tonight at 0z from the 12z run earlier Expand but the 0z model runs are the first ones to include the sampling from the shortwaves, so maybe quite different, with what I hope will be a jog west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:09 PM, snowman19 said: Based off the jog east on the 18z RGEM, I’m expecting the CMC to also move east tonight at 0z from the 12z run earlier Expand Well yeah, the 18z CMC is already east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 10:26 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, they could simply say some models hint at more. Not a Day after tomorrow solution it always comes up with No way! They're simply looking at their bottom line - Advertising $$! No more, No less. PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:11 PM, Snow88 said: So you are thinking no storm at all for our area ? Expand I’m thinking very minimal snow impacts west of eastern Long Island. This has always been an eastern New England snowstorm. West of I-95? Forget anything but mood flakes IMO. Could I be wrong? Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:13 PM, Ericjcrash said: Well yeah, the 18z CMC is already east from 12z. Expand There isn't an 18z CMC. What are you talking about. The CMC only runs twice a day. Now I guess there could be an 18z CMC but that would be news to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:22 PM, Philadelphia Snow said: There isn't an 18z CMC. What are you talking about. The CMC only runs twice a day. Expand CMC is the place that runs the model.. the model is called the GEM OR GGEM...I hate when it’s called the cmc.. and I think they mean the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:15 PM, snowman19 said: I’m thinking very minimal snow impacts west of eastern Long Island. This has always been an eastern New England snowstorm. West of I-95? Forget anything but mood flakes IMO. Could I be wrong? Sure Expand this WPC QPF map says it all - go with the pro's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Can someone with knowledge of the RGEM/GGEM please explain what the hell is going on with that model and how it works. I'm beyond confused. I was under the impression that the GGEM only runs twice a day, but UQAM has it 4X with 6Z and 18Z runs. I just checked the GGEM 18Z and it is clearing different than what was posted above for the 18Z RGEM. So the GGEM is running 4X a day now? Another thing, the RGEM only shows out to 48hrs on the UQAM site but clearly it goes to 84 (every run?) so how do you get those panels?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:27 PM, NEG NAO said: this WPC QPF map says it all - go with the pro's Expand They are way too low in SC and GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 See images 18Z both Global and Regional?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:32 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Can someone with knowledge of the RGEM/GGEM please explain what the hell is going on with that model and how it works. I'm beyond confused. I was under the impression that the GGEM only runs twice a day, but UQAM has it 4X with 6Z and 18Z runs. I just checked the GGEM 18Z and it is clearing different than what was posted above for the 18Z RGEM. So the GGEM is running 4X a day now? Another thing, the RGEM only shows out to 48hrs on the UQAM site but clearly it goes to 84 (every run?) so how do you get those panels?? Expand Rgem 5 day http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html ggem def only runs 2 times a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 11:34 PM, The 4 Seasons said: See images 18Z both Global and Regional?? Expand Bottom image is GGEM topmis RGEM rgem runs 4 times a day and goes out 5 days now I guess ggem runs 2 times and goes out 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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