MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:19 PM, Ericjcrash said: No. And even if does, it shouldn't. Low is way OTS. Expand No absolutely not my man , that 2nd max is leafing out to the west of the SLP Follow the track of LP at 60 with that feature then look at where it is at 72 now look at where the center goes by 96 That moisture will follow the Low just like the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:23 PM, Bluebythec said: Our first named storm of 2018! "Precious" Expand Hahaha, perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This is a deep Miller A it will go to the benchmark prob sub 960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 How most of us feel about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 In my time lurking on this board, I’ve always heard the term “benchmark”. Can someone explain what that means. I assume we want in the benchmark for most snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:24 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: No absolutely not my man , that 2nd max is leafing out to the west of the SLP Follow the track of LP at 60 with that feature then look at where it is at 72 now look at where the center goes by 96 That moisture will follow the Low just like the Canadian Expand The low is closer to Bermuda than here. Stop wishcasting calling for sub 960 inside the BM. Ride and die with the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:28 PM, mike1984 said: In my time lurking on this board, I’ve always heard the term “benchmark”. Can someone explain what that means. I assume we want in the benchmark for most snows? Expand Long/Lat 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:28 PM, mike1984 said: In my time lurking on this board, I’ve always heard the term “benchmark”. Can someone explain what that means. I assume we want in the benchmark for most snows? Expand The 40N/70W coordinates, where winter storms that are significant here often track. Actually, a bit west of there is best for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:29 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukmet Expand Even NE gets shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 And LMFAO “Precious” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:31 PM, Stormlover74 said: Even NE gets shafted Expand That is horrific! Lets see what EURO shows. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 New navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:32 PM, EastonSN+ said: That is horrific! Lets see what EURO shows. Ouch. Expand If we're going to miss I hope we take them down with us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Doesn' it go to your 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:30 PM, Ericjcrash said: The low is closer to Bermuda than here. Stop wishcasting calling for sub 960 inside the BM. Ride and die with the JMA Expand He's not wishcasting Every model has been shifting west this afternoon and the 2nd low closer to the coast is quite possible. We still don't know yet if there will be 2 lows or one of those lows are due to convective feed back. JMA, Navgem, CMC,GEPS, RPM are close to great hits for our area/ On 1/1/2018 at 5:32 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: New navgem Expand Further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:35 PM, Snow88 said: He's not wishcasting Every model has been shifting west this afternoon and the 2nd low closer to the coast is quite possible. We still don't know yet if there will be 2 lows or one of those lows are due to convective feed back. JMA, Navgem, CMC,GEPS, RPM are close to great hits for our area/ Further west Expand Not exactly the pinnacle of success in modeling right there Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 People also need to realize we’re not do it die lol... literally more than 72 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, tim123 said: Doesn' it go to your 144? Expand Yes but nothing else falls after hour 84 or 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:36 PM, JetsPens87 said: Not exactly the pinnacle of success in modeling right there Ant Expand Is there any success with models? I can tell you how every models failed at one storm another this winter alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:36 PM, JetsPens87 said: Not exactly the pinnacle of success in modeling right there Ant Expand GFS and GEFS shifted slightly west We are still 2 days away from the final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:37 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Is there any success with models? I can tell you how every models failed at one storm another this winter alone Expand None of the models have been stellar this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 For those talking consistency and this being DOA... we’re 3 days out an eternity in model time.. this was GFS 3 days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:41 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: For those talking consistency and this being DOA... we’re 3 days out an eternity in model time.. this was GFS 3 days ago... Expand People do this with every storm Throw in the towel a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:38 PM, Snow88 said: GFS and GEFS shifted slightly west We are still 2 days away from the final solution Expand Only one model wears the ring to rule them all. King Euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:30 PM, Ericjcrash said: The low is closer to Bermuda than here. Stop wishcasting calling for sub 960 inside the BM. Ride and die with the JMA Expand Do you realize what the average LP on the global have this? You may want to read MT HOLLYs AFD before you post something that stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:42 PM, Snow88 said: People do this with every storm Throw in the towel a few days outI like see how it plays out, though. We’re approaching the denouement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:41 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: For those talking consistency and this being DOA... we’re 3 days out an eternity in model time.. this was GFS 3 days ago... Expand It's stronger now, but same result.... we can' hang our hats on the nogaps and JMA. All the optimism will be gone in 20 minutes when the Euro follows the UK to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:43 PM, Ericjcrash said: It's stronger now, but same result.... we can' hang our hats on the nogaps and JMA. All the optimism will be gone in 20 minutes when the Euro follows the UK to Bermuda. Expand 3 days out...lol and not even close on the analysis.. 500 evolution is night and day, it’s not just “stronger” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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