Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:26 PM, NEG NAO said: this map assumes its a 10:1 ratio - do the math if its 15:1 or 20:1 - that would equal MECS possibly HECS BUT PROCEED WITH CAUTION ITS THE CMC Expand I think it will end up as A scraper for most...however the canadians have been hot lately so this is encouraging. Granted a storm forming in the Bahamas not of tropical characteristics and impacting us is pretty ridiculous but with a bomb like this who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GDPS is 300 miles west of GFS/NAM with edge of precipitation. We get a good foot here and jackpot has shifted from LI to S.NJ on this run. But still I noticed a strong pull east just as we are getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:49 PM, Rjay said: Expand Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Consolidated low that far east, that western precip shield seems overdone IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:51 PM, Ericjcrash said: Consolidated low that far east, that western precip shield seems overdone IMO. Expand Ukie would likely be a miss for everyone imo... outlier as of now, models are trending away from our double barrel UKIE trended towards it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:26 PM, NEG NAO said: this map assumes its a 10:1 ratio - do the math if its 15:1 or 20:1 - that would equal MECS possibly HECS BUT PROCEED WITH CAUTION ITS THE CMC Expand CMC ensembles shift the low west and it's quite similiar to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:50 PM, Ericjcrash said: Ouch... Expand It's the same look...coastal areas prob do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I feel like we're not going to know anything definitively and will just have to watch the radar Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:50 PM, Ericjcrash said: Ouch... Expand Nothing wrong with that image Some of the models are struggling with the double barrel lows. We don't know yet if that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:54 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukie would likely be a miss for everyone imo... outlier as of now, models are trending away from our double barrel UKIE trended towards it Expand The Ukie prob has a double-barreled/elongation look. Post it when it comes out on Ryan Maue's site. Post slp and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:56 PM, Rjay said: It's the same look...coastal areas prob do well Expand I'm not sure. From 72-96 that precip may ultimately all pull away to the east. We'll know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:36 PM, Rjay said: It's coming 0z run Expand The CRAS was the first model to pick up on the boxing day blizzard, not the GFS. Obviously not saying it will be right here but would be funny. That storm had a severely negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:58 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I'm not sure. From 72-96 that precip may ultimately all pull away to the east. We'll know shortly. Expand That's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:57 PM, Snow88 said: Nothing wrong with that image Some of the models are struggling with the double barrel lows. We don't know yet if that will happen. Expand The Euro consolidated last night to the eastern low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:59 PM, EastonSN+ said: The CRAS was the first model to pick up on the boxing day blizzard, not the GFS. Obviously not saying it will be right here but would be funny. That storm had a severely negative NAO. Expand The CRAS has a severe west bias so I'm not surprised it caught that event early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Meanwhile the NavGEM has not moved more than 50 miles in about 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:57 PM, Snow88 said: Nothing wrong with that image Some of the models are struggling with the double barrel lows. We don't know yet if that will happen. Expand Yes there is, it's pulling away and precip shouldn't be that far west with that surface depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 How long till we get the accum precip for UKMET? So far not liking GFS and UKMET vs. GGEM and JMA. But at least they keep us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Where's the MAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:07 PM, WaPo said: Where's the MAM? Expand Shows a similar solution to the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:57 PM, Snow88 said: Nothing wrong with that image Some of the models are struggling with the double barrel lows. We don't know yet if that will happen. Expand There’s plenty wrong with that image. Precious won’t make it that far west with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:13 PM, JetsPens87 said: There’s plenty wrong with that image. Precious won’t make it that far west with that depiction. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:54 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukie would likely be a miss for everyone imo... outlier as of now, models are trending away from our double barrel UKIE trended towards it Expand The UKMET would be great right up 95 That precip will come right up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:16 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Expand Hahaha iPhone autocorrects! Im leaving it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:17 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The UKMET would be great right uplace 95 That precip will come right up Expand No. And even if does, it shouldn't. Low is way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:05 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yes there is, it's pulling away and precip shouldn't be that far west with that surface depiction. Expand Some models have 2 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gefs looks slightly improved. 0.1 liquid west to 0.3" over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebythec Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:13 PM, JetsPens87 said: There’s plenty wrong with that image. Precious won’t make it that far west with that depiction. Expand Our first named storm of 2018! "Precious" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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