Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think it will at least look somewhat similar to the ggem/rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gefs are so ugly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:10 AM, Rjay said: Gefs are so ugly lol Expand Most members give NE 0 snow lmao....awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC ensembles look nice Way further west than the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GEFS/GFS are out to lunch. Many give GEFS more respect than they deserve. Both GEFS/GFS are having difficulty with the phase and STJ vort. Our tax dollars at terrible use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Starting to look similar to the storm last March that dumped 30 inches in Rochester ny. Kinda wants to wrap snow back into want with lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Improved a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:30 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Improved a bit Expand Ukie improved alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:31 AM, Snow88 said: Ukie improved alot Expand Still way east, just has the double barrel so we cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The UKMET starts the low east of the Bahamas, I don’t know how that turns into a good storm for us. It just looks real suspect to me. Let’s see what the Euro/EPS do... On 1/1/2018 at 4:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: That’s wayyyy down there at 1007mb lol Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That's a huge jump in Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy new year to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukie showing worst nightmare for forum...slug of snow make push into metro, only to quickly shut off as lift quickly moves due east as eastern most SLP becomes the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If I recall this storm was OTS and double barreled till 24 hrs prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:30 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Improved a bit On 1/1/2018 at 5:32 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still way east, just has the double barrel so we cash in Expand Expand Knew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:41 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If I recall this storm was OTS and double barreled till 24 hrs prior Expand Yes and I believe the models didn’t pick up on it until the 12z suite on Friday. Snow began falling on Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:52 AM, weathermedic said: Yes and I believe the models didn’t pick up on it until the 12z suite on Friday. Snow began falling on Sunday morning Expand The models had it way in advance and lost it bringing it back 36 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:41 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If I recall this storm was OTS and double barreled till 24 hrs prior Expand That would obviously be the best case scenario. But we just barely made that. A somewhat muted result like that but 100 miles east out over eastern LI is a better bet for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:21 AM, Enigma said: GEFS/GFS are out to lunch. Many give GEFS more respect than they deserve. Both GEFS/GFS are having difficulty with the phase and STJ vort. Our tax dollars at terrible use. Expand Most people don't even use the GFS. Even our media outlets admit they use the Euro and just show the GFS for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:54 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would obviously be the best case scenario. But we just barely made that. A somewhat muted result like that but 100 miles east out over eastern LI is a better bet for this one. Expand There's a good chance that even eastern LI will be out of the big snows. Big thing with this storm will be the below 0 historically cold air it brings down on strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 6:04 AM, Paragon said: There's a good chance that even eastern LI will be out of the big snows. Big thing with this storm will be the below 0 historically cold air it brings down on strong winds. You have three pieces of energy at play here. You have equal chances a miss and hit at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 6:05 AM, USCG RS said: On 1/1/2018 at 6:04 AM, Paragon said: There's a good chance that even eastern LI will be out of the big snows. Big thing with this storm will be the below 0 historically cold air it brings down on strong winds. Expand You have three pieces of energy at play here. You have equal chances a miss and hit at this point. Expand Sure but that double barreled structure is going to be an issue. If that somehow doesn't happen, then it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 5:52 AM, weathermedic said: Yes and I believe the models didn’t pick up on it until the 12z suite on Friday. Snow began falling on Sunday morning I also remember a storm in 2003 that was forecast to miss the area and wound up being 24+" of snow to the Area. I'll never forget listening to 1010 wins and the meteorologist saying that the HP was too strong and was going to shunt this storm east. It rode up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 6:07 AM, Paragon said: Sure but that double barreled structure is going to be an issue. If that somehow doesn't happen, then it's game on. I don't see a double barreled LP developing. More than likely that's just the model having trouble resolving all the Vorts and the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Good news - Consolidated single SLP on Euro. Bad news - Consolidated to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Even New England outside the immediate coast doesn't do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Dr No crashes the New Year's Eve festivities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 6:08 AM, USCG RS said: On 1/1/2018 at 5:52 AM, weathermedic said: Yes and I believe the models didn’t pick up on it until the 12z suite on Friday. Snow began falling on Sunday morning Expand I also remember a storm in 2003 that was forecast to miss the area and wound up being 24+" of snow to the Area. I'll never forget listening to 1010 wins and the meteorologist saying that the HP was too strong and was going to shunt this storm east. It rode up the coast. Expand I think that was PD2 you're talking about. It was there on the models and then it was gone and then it came back. We had forecasts of 6-12 inches originally and they just kept going up until the end of the storm when accumulations were at 18-24" for most of the area and 24-30" for southern and eastern parts of the city and long island. We get our biggest storms in mod-strong El Ninos, all the 20+ storms for my area at least have been during mod-strong El Ninos except for Jan 1996, which was 20+ everywhere in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hopefully the eps shows this is on the eastern edge of the envelope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wasn't the 12z Euro run similar in that was east but gave us some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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