Mitchel Volk Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Up tp 60hrs that it for the NAM after that no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:35 AM, snowman19 said: Here comes a wacked out off its rocker NAM solution of old lol....NAMs way of conveying "Happy New Year"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 No way to know yet what’s going on til we see what the CMC UKMET and Euro do. Especially interested now to see if they have that third disturbance coming in that rapidly. Even if that disturbance is real however it can still act as a phasing piece and not a kicker. This is one of those rare setups that can result in a really screwy forecast until we are inside 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just for everyone's info - its being reported by a few reputable METS on their sites that various models are currently suffering On 1/1/2018 at 3:11 AM, The Plowsman said: On 1/1/2018 at 2:35 AM, snowman19 said: Here comes a wacked out off its rocker NAM solution of old lol.... Expand NAMs way of conveying "Happy New Year"! Expand a Happy New Year and a glass of convective feedback error by the NAM and GFS so far as reported by a few high profile METS - ignore these crazy solutions right now...…….concentrate on the 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 3:16 AM, NEG NAO said: Just for everyone's info - its being reported by a few reputable METS on their sites that various models are currently suffering a Happy New Year and a glass of convective feedback error by the NAM and GFS so far as reported by a few high profile METS - ignore these crazy solutions right now...…….concentrate on the 500mb Expand "Suffering convective feedback" is an over-used excuse for simply dismissing NWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The RGEM is quite a bit stronger with the disturbance at H5 over Oklahoma at 48 hours than the NAM was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 3:28 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is quite a bit stronger with the disturbance at H5 over Oklahoma at 48 hours than the NAM was What does Oklahoma mean for us?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs is basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC is further west with the low closer to the coast. Several inches for the city with more in LI and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I could live with GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 At this point, I'm not expecting major changes until all of the peices of the puzzle are over the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 3:59 AM, Snow88 said: CMC is further west with the low closer to the coast. Several inches for the city with more in LI and SNE Expand CMC is a good deal west while the GFS is basically unchanged from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 0z CMC 6+ for NYC 12+ for eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If that 3rd vort moving in from the great lakes acts as a kicker, this is a lost cause. So far, the CMC is the only model giving this area anything tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:08 AM, snowman19 said: If that 3rd vort moving in from the great lakes acts as a kicker, this is a lost cause. So far, the CMC is the only model giving this area anything tonight.... Expand Yeah, but it' been great lately...only sliver of hope. However, we really need to wait until sampling is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:11 AM, NEG NAO said: Expand What am I doing wrong, where is the GEM located on Tropicaltidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:08 AM, snowman19 said: If that 3rd vort moving in from the great lakes acts as a kicker, this is a lost cause. So far, the CMC is the only model giving this area anything tonight.... Expand And the Euro at 12z CMC has been better than the gfs lately. Look at the verification stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:21 AM, sferic said: What am I doing wrong, where is the GEM located on Tropicaltidbits? Expand its also known as the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:21 AM, sferic said: What am I doing wrong, where is the GEM located on Tropicaltidbits? Expand CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:21 AM, Snow88 said: And the Euro at 12z CMC has been better than the gfs lately. Look at the verification stats Expand Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:22 AM, EastonSN+ said: Ukmet? Expand It MIGHT be a big hit here..MIGHT. It’s very hard to tell but it looks like it literally moves due north close to the benchmark but without precip maps I can’t tell yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:22 AM, NEG NAO said: its also known as the CMC Expand Thank you so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:24 AM, SnowGoose69 said: It MIGHT be a big hit here..MIGHT. It’s very hard to tell but it looks like it literally moves due north close to the benchmark but without precip maps I can’t tell yet Expand I’ll have precip maps on Ryan’s site, I’ll post when they’re done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:31 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’ll have precip maps on Ryan’s site, I’ll post when they’re done Expand It looks like it may not have a double low so it’s possible it ain’t as wet this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 With the cold in place those GGEM totals would yield much higher..looks like a foot or more in city, close to 2 feet on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Def gonna need to wait for the precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:44 AM, Rjay said: Def gonna need to wait for the precip maps Expand That’s wayyyy down there at 1007mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:44 AM, Rjay said: Def gonna need to wait for the precip maps Expand Its like waiting for the official to send word down on a close play! Catch or no catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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