SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The CMC scenario really makes no sense. Verbatim that should be a miss for almost everyone other than SNE but it has that crazy western low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 UKMET looks like a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 One analog for this event could be from December 5th, 1981. Very intense SLP formed well east of Cape Cod and brought up to 2' of snow to SE MA. The similarity is the very strong northerly winds that are modeled with this upcoming system. There was enough of an onshore vector to bring the heavy snow into SE MA. Further west the downsloping from the mountains in central and northern NE resulted in much lower amounts going west in CT and western MA. The NYC area got nothing but strong winds and virga. This seems to match well with what the models are putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:09 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I fear Jan 2015 It’s good to be cognizant of that going in. It seems similar in regards to anticipation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:26 PM, Tatamy said: One analog for this event could be from December 5th, 1981. Very intense SLP formed well east of Cape Cod and brought up to 2' of snow to SE MA. The similarity is the very strong northerly winds that are modeled with this upcoming system. There was enough of an onshore vector to bring the heavy snow into SE MA. Further west the downsloping from the mountains in central and northern NE resulted in much lower amounts going west in CT and western MA. The NYC area got nothing but strong winds and virga. This seems to match well with what the models are putting out. Expand Remember that storm very well living in Worcester MA at that time. One of my favorite as a snow crazy kid. 18 inches in the town of Shrewsbury. It was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET looks like a miss Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Gefs mean looks nearly identical to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Good to see nothing has changed on the NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 UKMET track would imply a hit to eastern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Good to see nothing has changed on the NAVGEMAnother red flag that Op mods are too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:35 PM, North and West said: It’s good to be cognizant of that going in. It seems similar in regards to anticipation. . Expand Except we don't have a model giving us 20-30" of snow so really no reason to expect much at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:44 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Most places do. You ever live in the upper midwest? I have and snow wise it's as boring as hell. Lot's of ridiculous cold and you can go numerous winters without a 6 inch snowfall. Expand I got lucky in that my only Midwestern winter was 98-99 and Chicago had their 2nd biggest snowfall in record at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:07 PM, Stormlover74 said: Except we don't have a model giving us 20-30" of snow so really no reason to expect much at this timeI agree. Being realistic helps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:10 PM, North and West said: I agree. Being realistic helps..However an hour or couple hour difference in phasing brings these types of snows towards major population areas. That being said, it is therefore not outside the realm of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:09 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I fear Jan 2015 Expand Juno is in everyone's mind with this possible storm Forecasted 26-32 inches Got 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This system will be so dynamic Nantucket could go over to rain while Martha’s Vinyard pukes snow and gets 30”. While anywhere west of the deform gets a dusting. It’s all about where the deform sets up. If I lived east of river head I would be pretty damn excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:19 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The CMC scenario really makes no sense. Verbatim that should be a miss for almost everyone other than SNE but it has that crazy western low Expand Some models do have another low closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:22 PM, Snow88 said: Juno is in everyone's mind with this possible storm Forecasted 26-32 inches Got 10 inches Expand Try being forecasted for 30 and not getting a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:23 PM, Snow88 said: Some models do have another low closer to the coast Expand How does the GEFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:25 PM, EastonSN+ said: How does the GEFS look? Expand Saw on another forum that they are same as ops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEFS is non-event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Try being forecasted for 30 and not getting a flake Expand Have nightmares still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:31 PM, Enigma said: GEFS is east. Expand Looks pretty identical to me, and to get technical more individual members are West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The UKMET might also have the precip way west of the low because it has 1 inch to NYC and 8 for ERN LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:06 PM, USCG RS said: On 12/31/2017 at 5:05 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Good to see nothing has changed on the NAVGEM Expand Another red flag that Op mods are too far East. Expand How do we know the Navgem has s progressive bias. The Nogaps used to but it's been upgraded multiple times. People always say this but I've never seen any proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:35 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET might also have the precip way west of the low because it has 1 inch to NYC and 8 for ERN LIWith the isobar structure and the look aloft at 60-84 hrs, I would venture to say the UK is almost a crushing hit. It appears the phase just escapes, and I mean JUST escapes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:40 PM, Rjay said: How do we know the Navgem has s progressive bias. The Nogaps used to but it's been upgraded multiple times. People always say this but I've never seen any proof. Expand It definitely still has it from what I've seen. Especially on coastal lows. I know the last 2-3 winters its been west of the GFS on several occasions 3-5 days out and the end track has been west of the NavGEM 5 day forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 5:43 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It definitely still has it from what I've seen. Especially on coastal lows. I know the last 2-3 winters its been west of the GFS on several occasions 3-5 days out and the end track has been west of the NavGEM 5 day forecast Expand I've seen the Navgem more amped up than the other models in the midrange more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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