North and West Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:01 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The low is east at 78 because of the divorced convection in the Atlantic, notice next few panel wanna wrap our pesky Atlantic vort max back into the flow...imo Nam if finished would be well West What does that mean to non-meteorologists?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:03 PM, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is if the NAM ran out to 120 that low is going over top of us Expand Agreed, notice the southern vort intensity back flowing the Atlantic convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:03 PM, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is if the NAM ran out to 120 that low is going over top of us Expand are you talking about the low riding up the coast from near the Bahamas ? Please explain how the 500mb has changed to cause this major shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:03 PM, North and West said: What does that mean to non-meteorologists? . Expand Spare energy that’s unphased is out ahead of the southern energy helping to creat the storm, that energy put ahead being amped, causes it to draw the surface low, if the northern energy can dive quicker, and enhance the southern vort, we can get the “extra’ energy out ahead pulled back and in turn get our surface low tucked in, this will also allow for a quicker phase/trough inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:07 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Spare energy that’s unphased is out ahead of the southern energy helping to creat the storm, that energy put ahead being amped, causes it to draw the surface low, if the northern energy can dive quicker, and enhance the southern vort, we can get the “extra’ energy out ahead pulled back and in turn get our surface low tucked in, this will also allow for a quicker phase/trough inversion Expand what do you think the actual chances of this happening are ??? Also does anyone have an analog storm for this setup -??? I can't find one - not even on here http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/Weather.html - Also would be nice if one of the Mets or someone else that has time can extend and update this for the last few seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 From what I see the nam has a low way west of any model at 84 hours which is a good sign but it is the nam, I do however like the nam since Jan 23 2015 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:07 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Spare energy that’s unphased is out ahead of the southern energy helping to creat the storm, that energy put ahead being amped, causes it to draw the surface low, if the northern energy can dive quicker, and enhance the southern vort, we can get the “extra’ energy out ahead pulled back and in turn get our surface low tucked in, this will also allow for a quicker phase/trough inversionThanks! If we want snow, we want this?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:11 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: From what I see the nam has a low way west of any model at 84 hours which is a good sign but it is the nam, I do however like the nam since Jan 23 2015 blizzard Expand You mean 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:10 PM, NEG NAO said: what do you think the actual chances of this happening are ??? Also does anyone have an analog storm for this setup -??? I can't find one - not even on here http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/Weather.html - Also would be nice if one of the Mets or someone else that has time can extend and update this for the last few seasons Expand I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure you can find one here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Early on, but the 12z GFS looks vastly improved over its 0Z run through 57 hours. Northern Stream is digging more and the Southern vort is hanging back more as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:47 PM, Ace said: Early on, but the 12z GFS looks vastly improved over its 0Z run through 57 hours. Northern Stream is digging more and the Southern vort is hanging back more as well. Expand Ridge out west also looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:47 PM, Ace said: Early on, but the 12z GFS looks vastly improved over its 0Z run through 57 hours. Northern Stream is digging more and the Southern vort is hanging back more as well. Expand Flow looks slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Slower and deeper than that Nam run even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Gfs gonna be much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Gfs really digging hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:51 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs gonna be much better Expand Yep. Much more interaction between the two streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:52 PM, Ace said: Yep. Much more interaction between the two streams Expand Nice trend still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 CMC is west of 0z Great hit for New England and a good hit for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Pretty remarkable improvement in 1 run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 953 low on the gfs at our latitude ? Wow New England looks good on every model Nice shift west on the cmc and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS still is not gonna do it for us, but still is a good improvement from its previous run. Low is a decent amount west and is actually deeper at 953 mb at 102 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:01 PM, Snow88 said: 953 low on the gfs at our latitude ? Wow New England looks good on every model Nice shift west on the cmc and gfs Expand Starting to lose the double barrel feature as more convection gets wrapped up in our interacting streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 3:55 PM, Snow88 said: CMC is west of 0z Great hit for New England and a good hit for LI Expand This has an eastern New England storm written all over it. Eastern Long Island May get some of it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:02 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Starting to lose the double barrel feature as more convection gets wrapped up in our interacting streams Expand CMC still has the double barrel low and has accumulating snow for alot more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I fear Jan 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:09 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I fear Jan 2015 Expand But we were in the JP zone for that one this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:04 PM, snowman19 said: This has an eastern New England storm written all over it. Eastern Long Island May get some of it too Expand Well not if we get this low another 100 miles west the whole forum is in play. Remember the euro is the best model and has accumulating snow for us. The ukmet is a great model had backed off a little but let's see what it says today. Also cmc is decent lately and looks decent for 3-6 more as u go east. Usually 3 days before the storm happens u get another trend I just hope it' a west trend so by tomorrow afternoon we should really see where we stand. I'm not writing anything off yet. Were still about 100 hours away and all we really need is 100 miles . The cmc and gfs just gave us 75 each at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:04 PM, snowman19 said: This has an eastern New England storm written all over it. Eastern Long Island May get some of it too Expand I'd say that's the likeliest scenario. The city could pick up a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 4:14 PM, Stormlover74 said: I'd say that's the likeliest scenario. The city could pick up a couple inches Expand Eastern LI could do very well here, may be a classic for them. Central LI is probably on the fence and anyone further west (50+ miles) could pick up a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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