Snowman86 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:16 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes Expand Im not weather men but if thats the case then it would mean less snow for NJ area. I knw there so much time and thing can change. Just trying to learn and understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:16 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes Expand this is an optical illusion caused by a deeper system look at the pressure drops as compared to the earlier run - more wrapped up and outer portion nudged west - also its more important at this stage of the game to pay more attention to 500mb and not the surface features as they will be jumping all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:16 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes Expand Looks like maybe an issue with dual lows too. Look at the concentration of the two different areas in the lighter green and yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:16 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like a decent jump east to my eyes Expand It's doing the same thing the EPS mean did. Dual centers on some of the members but only accounting for the stronger east lows. Also neg nao is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:26 PM, Rjay said: It's doing the same thing the EPS mean did. Dual centers on some of the members but only accounting for the stronger east lows. Also neg nao is correct Expand Agreed... I’ll post individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:14 PM, Rtd208 said: That is certainly something to keep an eye on. Expand It's just the goofus at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NAVGEM came in further west vs 12z, eastern NE special. Doesn’t mean much though since it’s a crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:36 PM, Sn0waddict said: NAVGEM came in further west vs 12z, eastern NE special. Doesn’t mean much though since it’s a crap model. Expand Doesn't the NAVGEM have a tendency to suppress storms? Seems like the GFS and NAVGEM are usually in that camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:07 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Our upper level low Expand Would this be considered a bonafide triple phaser like March 1993? If so this might be the one case where a triple phaser is needed to take the classic track, usually triple phasers at our latitude cut or hug. But with the pattern we have right now, a triple phaser could take a BM track. Thinking of that 940mb monster the Euro showed a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:46 PM, Paragon said: Would this be considered a bonafide triple phaser like March 1993? If so this might be the one case where a triple phaser is needed to take the classic track, usually triple phasers at our latitude cut or hug. But with the pattern we have right now, a triple phaser could take a BM track. Thinking of that 940mb monster the Euro showed a few days ago. Expand The issue is how far out ahead the southern stream is getting and spawning the low out at sea. We want that to slow down so the low doesn’t form so far out. The northern stream diving in will try to tug it in but it’ll be easier if the streams can phase sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:41 PM, Cobalt said: Doesn't the NAVGEM have a tendency to suppress storms? Seems like the GFS and NAVGEM are usually in that camp Expand Yes that is true from what I’ve seen in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Not bad on that GEFS. Good position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 11:41 PM, Cobalt said: Doesn't the NAVGEM have a tendency to suppress storms? Seems like the GFS and NAVGEM are usually in that campActually.. Navgem is very useful. It has a very progressive bias. When Navgem is west of other models... Look for a correction west with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:12 AM, USCG RS said: On 12/30/2017 at 11:41 PM, Cobalt said: Doesn't the NAVGEM have a tendency to suppress storms? Seems like the GFS and NAVGEM are usually in that camp Expand Actually.. Navgem is very useful. It has a very progressive bias. When Navgem is west of other models... Look for a correction west with the other models. Expand It used to have a progressive bias. I'm not so sure anymore. I really don't have any idea. People love saying it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 RGEM outta range but a good sign...wayyyyy West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:43 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM outta range but a good sign...wayyyyy West Expand whats the frame/hours before that show did that snow area pass over NJ ? That precip field looks suspect on the northwest side - but actually better to be following the 500mb at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:43 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM outta range but a good sign...wayyyyy West Expand It's the ggem at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 KMA is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I have to say we have a lot of smart people in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:50 AM, Rjay said: KMA is amped Expand Rjay what is the KMA ? Im not familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:53 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: Rjay what is the KMA ? Im not familiar Expand It's the Korean model. I dare you to find North America on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:54 AM, Rjay said: It's the Korean model. I dare you to find North America on that map. Expand That looks like a jigsaw puzzle that I dumped out of the box on my living room table ,,,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:54 AM, Rjay said: It's the Korean model. I dare you to find North America on that map. Expand I've been looking since you posted it and cannot find it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:54 AM, Rjay said: It's the Korean model. I dare you to find North America on that map. Expand Will from stranger things in the "upside down" world can find North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I thought it was the map from PUBG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 12:54 AM, Rjay said: It's the Korean model. I dare you to find North America on that map. Expand 2 O'clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 1:05 AM, EasternLI said: 2 O'clock Expand Yup but it has all this random land that doesn't exist too. Here's the surface. Anyway, just having a little fun during model downtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Found it, then realized it was only out to 72 hours so it couldn't be amped, and I felt duped lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Rjay the images your posting are only +72 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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