bluewave Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'm a little bit worried about this initial piece which produces the initial surface low that swings East. I think models will struggle on which shortwaves to focus on and we could see some crazy model swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Huge shift towards the Euro on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge shift towards the Euro on the gfs. how many times have we said that on these forums in the last 20 + years ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge shift towards the Euro on the gfs. Crushes Boston into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Crushes Boston into Maine. Have heard a lot of that too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That lead energy that Yanksfan pointed out is on all the model runs so far today. I'd like to see that phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: That lead energy that Yanksfan pointed out is on all the model runs so far today. I'd like to see that phase in. It makes the low slip east just enough where the trough just misses it down in our latitude. Not at all discouraged. The 500mb map was just gorgeous. So close to a triple phaser. Lots of time to track. Lets hope this event doesn't disappear like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 No one should be encouraged or discouraged by anything at this point. Plenty of time for any solution on the table. Hopefully this pattern can amplify and give us something notable. Oftentimes patterns like this with extreme cold go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: No one should be encouraged or discouraged by anything at this point. Plenty of time for any solution on the table. Hopefully this pattern can amplify and give us something notable. Oftentimes patterns like this with extreme cold go out with a bang. Curious to know what factors lead to amplification besides the PNA, NAO. Is the position of the PV forecasted to shift next week? I believe the MJO is in phase 8, which is favorable for EC storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: It makes the low slip east just enough where the trough just misses it down in our latitude. Not at all discouraged. The 500mb map was just gorgeous. So close to a triple phaser. Lots of time to track. Lets hope this event doesn't disappear like the last one. When was the last triple phased storm to hit our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It is worth noting the possibility of a last minute, transient block that could set up off Newfoundland. This could save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The March superstorm of 93 was a triple phaser. Another one that comes to mind is the blizzard of 78. Be careful what you wish for though. Triple phasers are basically hyper over amped bombs. Because of that you often see these type of storms hug the coast or become inland runners. The 93 event ended up in Philly. After a foot of snow in my area, it turned into an all out sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, NutleyBlizzard said: The March superstorm of 93 was a triple phaser. Another one that comes to mind is the blizzard of 78. Be careful what you wish for though. Triple phasers are basically hyper over amped bombs. Because of that you often see these type of storms hug the coast or become inland runners. The 93 event ended up in Philly. After a foot of snow in my area, it turned into an all out sleet fest. Yeah I don't know of any that were all snow events in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I don't know of any that were all snow events in our area We catch the tail end usually. That’s a Maritimes specially usually. Personally I wouldn’t mind a 93 repeat. With all the cold air around and the time of year it wouldn’t be the same storm. We would however change over as the flow rockets off the Gulf Stream it doesn’t really matter how cold the preceding airmass is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The Euro looks like it’s going to be a monster storm wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: The Euro looks like it’s going to be a monster storm wow Triple phaser! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 EURO is going to look really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We catch the tail end usually. That’s a Maritimes specially usually. Personally I wouldn’t mind a 93 repeat. With all the cold air around and the time of year it wouldn’t be the same storm. We would however change over as the flow rockets off the Gulf Stream it doesn’t really matter how cold the preceding airmass is Would gladly take a foot followed by sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wow nukes the area, wish I could post the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Would gladly take a foot followed by sleet Still way too early on this obviously. With the progressive pattern we’ll need to have some luck for a great track. A fast bomber could be an inland runner, and we could see sheared out messes like we’ve been having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Wow nukes the area, wish I could post the maps. What is the time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still way too early on this obviously. With the progressive pattern we’ll need to have some luck for a great track. A fast bomber could be an inland runner, and we could see sheared out messes like we’ve been having. This run stalls it by LI. We would get buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 For now, I am cautiously optimistic and not at all putting weight into individual OP runs, although this is definitely attention grabbing. One day at a time to track the pattern evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: What is the time frame? Snows from hour 156 to hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, White Gorilla said: For now, I am cautiously optimistic and not at all putting weight into individual OP runs, although this is definitely attention grabbing. One day at a time to track the pattern evolution. Agreed, snow maps will show weather porn that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The pattern is one that is filled with potential. That the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF now show the storm, though with differing solutions, is an encouraging thing. Still, it's about a week away, so things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Enigma said: It is worth noting the possibility of a last minute, transient block that could set up off Newfoundland. This could save the day. Wondering if the Euro sniffed this as part of its current solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The pattern is one that is filled with potential. That the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF now show the storm, though with differing solutions, is an encouraging thing. Still, it's about a week away, so things can still change. Potential is all we can hope for right now and that at least is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Wow nukes the area, wish I could post the maps. Yeaaaaa, it shows a trough negatively tilting and phasing over the upper Midwest. When you see that, it’s the weather equivalent of Aaron Judge at the plate about to swing for a grand slam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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