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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

That lead energy that Yanksfan pointed out is on all the model runs so far today.   I'd like to see that phase in.  

It makes the low slip east just enough where the trough just misses it down in our latitude. Not at all discouraged. The 500mb map was just gorgeous. So close to a triple phaser. Lots of time to track. Lets hope this event doesn't disappear like the last one.

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17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No one should be encouraged or discouraged by anything at this point. Plenty of time for any solution on the table. Hopefully this pattern can amplify and give us something notable. Oftentimes patterns like this with extreme cold go out with a bang.

Curious to know what factors lead to amplification besides the PNA, NAO.  Is the position of the PV forecasted to shift next week?  I believe the MJO is in phase 8, which is favorable for EC storms?     

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31 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

It makes the low slip east just enough where the trough just misses it down in our latitude. Not at all discouraged. The 500mb map was just gorgeous. So close to a triple phaser. Lots of time to track. Lets hope this event doesn't disappear like the last one.

When was  the last triple phased storm to hit our area? 

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The March superstorm of 93 was a triple phaser. Another one that comes to mind is the blizzard of 78. Be careful what you wish for though. Triple phasers are basically hyper over amped bombs. Because of that you often see these type of storms hug the coast or become inland runners. The 93 event ended up in Philly. After a foot of snow in my area, it turned into an all out sleet fest.

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Just now, NutleyBlizzard said:

The March superstorm of 93 was a triple phaser. Another one that comes to mind is the blizzard of 78. Be careful what you wish for though. Triple phasers are basically hyper over amped bombs. Because of that you often see these type of storms hug the coast or become inland runners. The 93 event ended up in Philly. After a foot of snow in my area, it turned into an all out sleet fest.

Yeah I don't know of any that were all snow events in our area

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10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I don't know of any that were all snow events in our area

We catch the tail end usually. That’s a Maritimes specially usually. Personally I wouldn’t mind a 93 repeat. With all the cold air around and the time of year it wouldn’t be the same storm. We would however change over as the flow rockets off the Gulf Stream it doesn’t really matter how cold the preceding airmass is

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23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We catch the tail end usually. That’s a Maritimes specially usually. Personally I wouldn’t mind a 93 repeat. With all the cold air around and the time of year it wouldn’t be the same storm. We would however change over as the flow rockets off the Gulf Stream it doesn’t really matter how cold the preceding airmass is

Would gladly take a foot followed by sleet 

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The pattern is one that is filled with potential. That the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF now show the storm, though with differing solutions, is an encouraging thing. Still, it's about a week away, so things can still change.

Potential is all we can hope for right now and that at least is a start. 

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