Lookout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: yeah I was, which is my bad there, but I do notice the precip is back up further north for that system but the temps are too warm 12z nam is a bit better. Actually has measurable precip now over the I 20 corridor . Not earth shattering by any means but maybe enough for a light dusting of snow or sleet...especially the lower savannah river valley and coastal sc. Temps look cold enough at the surface. Wouldn't be shocked if it ends up as a bit wetter in the end like the system wednesday. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z nam is a bit better. Actually has measurable precip now over the I 20 corridor . Not earth shattering by any means but maybe enough for a light dusting of snow or sleet...especially the lower savannah river valley and coastal sc. Temps look cold enough at the surface. Wouldn't be shocked if it ends up as a bit wetter in the end like the system wednesday. I will take a dusting considering just a few days ago it was a squashfest, and I got a few flakes last night from that overrunner so I am quite the content sandlapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 A sliver of hope my friends. Hopefully this is the start of a trend. The UK was spot on with the first storm bust. Picked up on the suppression before all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z nam is a bit better. Actually has measurable precip now over the I 20 corridor . Not earth shattering by any means but maybe enough for a light dusting of snow or sleet...especially the lower savannah river valley and coastal sc. Temps look cold enough at the surface. Wouldn't be shocked if it ends up as a bit wetter in the end like the system wednesday. I The UKMET last night looked fairly far north with the NYE system at 60-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 rgem at the end of its run with some precip showing up, gfs has it getting squashed after this but something to watch over the next few cycles as the nam was a bit more widespread for new years day along the sc coast. 06z gfs at 48hr had little to no precip along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: rgem at the end of its run with some precip showing up, gfs has it getting squashed after this but something to watch over the next few cycles as the nam was a bit more widespread for new years day along the sc coast. 06z gfs at 48hr had little to no precip along the gulf coast. Yeah..the gfs did not latch on to the extent of the precip Wednesday morning until the 0z and 06z run tues night...in other words until it was pretty much already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 gfs even more suppressed than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs even more suppressed than 06z. Yeah, it's ugly! Not going to get a storm with the look the 12z gfs has. The trough axis looks further east than a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, rduwx said: Yeah, it's ugly! Not going to get a storm with the look the 12z gfs has. The trough axis looks a lot further east than a couple of days ago. I think we can stick a fork in this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Yeah, I was wrong with my north trend predictions. The south is very cold, but we still cannot get a storm. It really is ironic that most of the time we are worried about the temperature, however, here it is all about being too cold. Smh, living in the south has its perks, and it has its downfalls as well. I hope everyone has a good new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 28 minutes ago, Lookout said: I think we can stick a fork in this one too. I'm waiting until the 12Z UKMET has it's chance today before I make that call. The 00Z was hopeful so I'm going to give it a shot first. You're probably right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandhillsSnowLover Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I have been quietly following this Southeast weather forum for many years now. I think the past couple of weeks have been the most frustrating for me as far as potential snow threats in my area of NC. ( NorthernMost Part of Sampson County). The models have been consistent in showing potential storms 7-10 days out only to watch them get squashed as time goes by. I use to get very frustrated when the northwest trend started showing up on models because that most of the time took me out of the potential snowfall. This last week I have been begging for a North and West trend in the modeling. Don't look as if that's gonna happen. Maybe we can cash in before Winter is out. It is still early in the season. Keeping my fingers crossed. Thanks to all you guys that read the models well. I have always loved Winter weather and I have learned a lot from all of you. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 00zUKMET/12zNAM vs. literally everything else not a fair fight and one we will always lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, Lookout said: I think we can stick a fork in this one too. For all of us that are well inland, it will just be cold. The last two systems taught me that. At least that is apparent now and noone should be dissapointed when once again nothing happens. Like I've said in other threads I'm interested to see just how cold it can get and stay. Maybe a day or two AOB freezing if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Eh win some lose some. Just need the cold press to relax to get some shortwaves to work with,the search continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Euro getting ready to do cpr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Eh win some lose some. Just need the cold press to relax to get some shortwaves to work with,the search continues. I havent won one in atleast 5 years. Bout time i get one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, CummingGaSnow said: For all of us that are well inland, it will just be cold. The last two systems taught me that. At least that is apparent now and noone should be dissapointed when once again nothing happens. Like I've said in other threads I'm interested to see just how cold it can get and stay. Maybe a day or two AOB freezing if we're lucky. Off for 11 days no snow in sight, well at least it will be so cold I won't be able to do that honey do list the wife has for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 once again nam looks improved at 39 with more expansive precip on the gulf coast. lets see where it heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 nam continues to shift the precip north for the new years day event. light precip but it is something. still on an island by itself though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 and at 57 sig jump north with precip. hope it is onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: and at 57 sig jump north with precip. hope it is onto something here. Wow. Makes it to the Nc/Sc line. One more jump like that, watch out WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 It would be high ratio stuff too... If we can get a legit north trend here and squeeze out 2/10th's that might be a solid 3 inch snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Lol saw posts and got excited. Hopefully it’s on to something indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NAM is much different than this time yesterday for SC....if its right this just highlights the issues the models have with predicting these waves in a fast flow like this, it also fits the well established pattern of bringing storms back inside of 72 hrs which is a common theme with a lot of our winter weather events. 18Z yesterday 18Z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 RGEM through 45 is close. It may not be quite as far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: It would be high ratio stuff too... If we can get a legit north trend here and squeeze out 2/10th's that might be a solid 3 inch snow. Crazy ratio if we can muster anything this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GFS says NAM is crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, ragtop50 said: GFS says NAM is crazy... yeah but which would you rather trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 At 96 the GFS looks like it’s setting up for a faster phase for the January 3rd storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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