tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks good. Need some more West movements though. I'm just fine with letting it sit where it sits right now. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’m beginning to think that this wall of dry air midways up the SC coast that has been eating all the precip all day has pretty much ruined our chances for snow in the NE SC area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 3k NAM is not going to look very much better, precip-wise than the 12z, it looks like, from what I see so far. it may still be reacting to that very dry air. Once the column is saturated, the radar returns should expand back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Pack, the precip field back west looks much better though. I guess that's good. Let's see if the next frame can do what the NAM can't and show some snow back here. LOL...There's a snow hole between you house and Packs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRARGH is an improvement from its last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 3k NAM is not going to look very much better, precip-wise than the 12z, it looks like, from what I see so far. Yeah, it didn't look as good as I was hoping. I can't believe I'm going to say this but, it doesn't look right for that strength of LP and fairly close to the coast. Weenie!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NAM is learning, it is now picking up the snow shields set up around my location on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NAM is not correct in how it describes the precipitation shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: 19z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRARGH is an improvement from its last run Yes it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RAP shifted precip a little west too...has RDU in 1-3" range...ColdRain jackpots for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Latest HRRR with a slight enhancement to the snowfall on the west side. Looks like the trends have slowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Never had good luck with the HRRR or RAP but it's all we got. And they actually match up with the Euro/GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Never had good luck with the HRRR or RAP but it's all we got. And they actually match up with the Euro/GFS too. Darn if it isn't trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This thing is booking.. GA is out of the precip and Charleston and Columbia will be soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I was really impressed with the 3km NAM in the early Dec storm from close range. Another test here. It is skimpy with precip except right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I wouldn't hang to much on each HRRR/Rap run they will fluctuate run to run but the overall trend is good, more expansive precip, and a good looking low bombing should really get things cranking in another 3-4 hrs......in the end the snow maps they are spitting out are more likely to bust low that high IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This thing is booking.. GA is out of the precip and Charleston and Columbia will be soon The entire storm will be out of the SE within like 12 hours. Very progressive storm. Only reason we aren't seeing 1.5-2 ft snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cred0021 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snowing pretty good in Florence, SC - started shortly after 3pm, sticking to the roads right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think the bigger thing to notice instead of models right now is the radar blowing up along the coast with those returns making steady progress inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: I think the bigger thing to notice instead of models right now is the radar blowing up along the coast with those returns making steady progress inland. what radar do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: what radar do you use? Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I just got put under a blizzard warning now@SteveVa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Weenie post! I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now. Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, rduwx said: Weenie post! I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now. Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick. We're going to need all the precip we can get to overcome the dry air. But I am also very hopeful for an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, rduwx said: Weenie post! I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now. Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick. NWS Raleigh not impressed updated AFD. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 333 PM Wednesday ...Winter Storm Warning in effect for counties along and east of I- 95. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for counties between U.S. Highway 1 and I-95... We did not change the Warning or Advisory areas. However, trends in the observational data and the latest models with the 12z/03 January run for the event, have been drier inland over central NC, and faster in ending the snow over the Coastal Plain. The observational data continues to support this idea as very dry air continued to advect into central NC from the NNW. The winds have backed to the NW in response to the deepening storm well off the SC coast at mid-afternoon. Dew points were near zero in the NW and Central Piedmont ranging to 10 or so around Clinton and Goldsboro. Needless to say, this is a very dry air mass and it continued to dry from the NW over inland areas. Light snow has been developing/spreading northward into the southern part of the Sandhills where some very light trace accumulations have been reported around Rockingham and even Southern Pines as of 330 PM. Temperatures have leveled off in the 29-34 range, with readings expected to fall from here. Light snow is expected to overspread the southern and eastern third of our region by 00z/this evening, with a chance of light snow as far NW as Wadesboro, Sanford, Raleigh, and Louisburg by that time. A light dusting to 0.5 inch is expected, mainly south of Sanford to Smithfield to Wilson by 00z/this evening. The very dry air in the west and north will greatly limit the NW extent of the precipitation shield, with plenty of evaporation and likely a few hours of virga, even in the east. The light snow is expected to spread north and northeast, with the emphasis along the Interstate 95 corridor this evening into the early morning hours of Thursday. This occurs as the low deepens and tracks along or just east of the Gulf Stream off the SC/NC coast. The trends from this morning continue to suggest the dry air will win out over much of the eastern Piedmont where only a dusting is expected. We will maintain the Advisory area but concede that this most likely would be a worst case scenario. The Coastal Plain is still expected to get 2-4 inches of snow (the 4 inches should be east of Interstate 95), with 2-3 inches on average expected over the Warning area. This is 25 percent less than the previous package due to the trends. Snowfall amounts are expected to taper off rapidly from the Intestate 95 corridor to the U.S. 1 corridor, with less than an inch expected from Laurinburg to Raleigh to Warrenton. Only a brief snow flake or two can be expected over the NW third of central NC, with essentially nothing in the Triad region. Many of the latest models suggest only a trace even in the Raleigh area, but especially over the NW side of the Triangle area. The snow is expected to taper off quickly from the southwest between midnight and 400 am, with only some light snow showers lingering in the NE zones after that time. Clearing and breezy conditions expected later tonight to near daybreak in the east. Lows in the upper teens to mid 20s NW to E. Timing: Light snow developing through the late afternoon and early evening in the south and east, spreading northward along the Interstate 95 corridor, as far west as U.S. 1. Snow ending late tonight. Confidence: High confidence in the precipitation type, snow given the super cold air mass and very low thicknesses. Temperatures may stay 32 and below if the clouds continue to thicken, but even areas that hit 32 will fall quickly by sunset (especially in the SE where snow is expected to evaporatively cool the column into the 20s after the snow onset). High confidence in using a 10:1 or 15:1 snow ratio given the dry air mass, and high confidence in a frozen ground and road temperatures will lead to very efficient snow accumulations in areas that see significant QPF. We have high confidence in 2-4 inches of snow in the far eastern Coastal Plain, but the confidence in getting 1 inch as far west as the current advisory area is less certain. High confidence in no accumulation in the NW Piedmont, including the Triad far removed from the storm track and deep in the cold arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: We're going to need all the precip we can get to overcome the dry air. But I am also very hopeful for an inch or two. I'm going positive here and say we'll see at least an inch. You know we've been in a snow drought if we're excited for an inch...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Good view of the moisture rushing in from the Atlantic just now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ma_radar_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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