PackWxMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Watching from Raleigh. Nice band setting up due E of CAE. Low Pressure says, LETS FEED THE BEAST, with atlantic moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hour 10 (latest run): Vs. Hr 11 from the previous run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The storm is so fascinating to watch develop. Just look at the pressure falls in E. GA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thanks, CR. Significant jog there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 As in the former NC Piedmont Weather guy? Ugh, spare us. This call has been calling the storm "since MID JULY!"Is he not reputable?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, PGAWx said: Thanks, CR. Significant jog there. No problemo. If we continue to see these jogs west, we might squeak out few dozen millimeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Latest HRRRRR snowfall (latest run top, last hour bottom) -- Increases totals over Pack's house by about 1000%. Not too shabby: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 3" zone is like 15 miles away. That's 10:1 ratios too. Let's see if the 3k Scam can do better than this from its last run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Latest HRRRRR snowfall (latest run top, last hour bottom) -- Increases totals over Pack's house by about 1000%. Not too shabby: Looks good. Need some more West movements though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: No problemo. If we continue to see these jogs west, we might squeak out few dozen millimeters. You might get that moonlit snow walk after all CR. Perhaps this slp is getting organized and bombing out a little ahead of schedule. 1002 now in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakeboardncwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: The 3" zone is like 15 miles away. That's 10:1 ratios too. I work in Wake Forest and live in Youngsville....come on just a few miles...I wanna do doughnuts hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR has taken SE Raleigh suburbs (Clayton) from 1/4in of snow to 4 inches in the last 2 hours. All-Aboardddddddddd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: You might get that moonlit snow walk after all CR. Perhaps this slp is getting organized and bombing out a little ahead of schedule. 1002 now in the Atlantic. We can hope. If we got 2", that would pretty much be enough. We don't want to see the short range trend back the other way. I've seen these models do this...go one way for an hour or two and then give it all back. Would be pretty awesome to see this thing get organized and maintain consolidation and everyone have to play catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: We can hope. If we got 2", that would pretty much be enough. We don't want to see the short range trend back the other way. I've seen these models do this...go one way for an hour or two and then give it all back. Would be pretty awesome to see this thing get organized and maintain consolidation and everyone have to play catch-up. If indeed it is a real trend the NAM should pick up on it next run. The RAP has been trending better past few runs so might be a new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, snowlover91 said: If indeed it is a real trend the NAM should pick up on it next run. The RAP has been trending better past few runs so might be a new trend. How does the Rappp compare to the HRRRR snow-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Frontogensis band setting up along the Gulf Stream at 18z. Going to be interesting to follow... You can start to see this effect on the Radar.. great returns blossoming on the Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How does the Rappp compare to the HRRRR snow-wise? Very similar with the cutoff through Wake best I can tell, a jackpot of 10-18" in NE NC and then 4-7" along and east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Very similar with the cutoff through Wake best I can tell, a jackpot of 10-18" in NE NC and then 4-7" along and east of 95. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR Kuchera and RAP, both very similar. HRRR is a painful miss, 5" 10 miles away. Amazing to see the models bring 3-4" line right to the east side of Wake Co, can't help but laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 New NAM looks better so far with slower, stronger and further SW SLP at hour 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Right on the county line pack. This storm is playing politics with us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: HRRR Kuchera and RAP, both very similar. HRRR is a painful miss, 5" 10 miles away. Amazing to see the models bring 3-4" line right to the east side of Wake Co, can't help but laugh. Awesome. Now let me show you something: 15z: 18z: As long as the HRRR isn't tricking us and we continue to get two maybe three more of these trends, you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Anyone in Wilmington have a report? yes, I'm 10 miles from the "beach" at the State Ports to be exact.. Starting to get Precip.. very light, It is RN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: New NAM looks better so far with slower, stronger and further SW SLP at hour 6. Yes, looks better. No double barrel look and is further west. I'd imagine the hi-res nam will look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 45 minutes ago, wake4est said: Flurries in durham Location? I've heard no other reports like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hello! SLP in the Atlantic, its close to the coast, well south and looks very healthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, rduwx said: Yes, looks better. No double barrel look and is further west. I'd imagine the hi-res nam will look a lot better. The new NAM looks a TON better with the surface low. Consolidated and stronger and a tick southwest at hr 11 (valid 05z). Actually is stronger and much, much farther west than the 18z HRRR valid for the same period. But there is zero change in the precip. That seems weird. This is the 12k Nam, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k NAM is not going to look very much better, precip-wise than the 12z, it looks like, from what I see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, frazdaddy said: Gulf stream at 60 miles off shore +/- ? roughly 40 to 60 miles.. Frying Pan Tower is 40 miles off shore.. It IS in the Gulf stream.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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