JoshWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, GunBlade said: I would keep an eye on the precip field the next couple hours. Models like the RAP have it really consolidating and tightening up, bringing most of the precip closer to shore and not interior NC much at all. The precip field is already more expansive to the North especially and somewhat to the west compared to what short term models showed for this time frame. Now, it could be the virga is so expansive that most are under virga the whole storm and see nothing and the models precip field more accurately depicts where it will actually fall and accumulate. Will be very interesting to watch for sure. hey, fellow stallings guy! Im afraid we're gonna be under virga the entire storm....or atleast the part of the storm that affects us, which is like an hour long, lol. Too much dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I was a bit iffy on snow totals here (NW Va Beach) since I'm always afraid it'll mix more than modeled, but I feel better now... Thank you for your insight. Maybe all our room and gloom has been misguided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Seeing noon met updates saying the storm is showing signs of being pretty impressive and it could come in more west. Idk. Thought I’d throw that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some bombing starting to take place on WV loop.Appears to be occurring well east of where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow map from Southeast Weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: hey, fellow stallings guy! Im afraid we're gonna be under virga the entire storm....or atleast the part of the storm that affects us, which is like an hour long, lol. Too much dry air Yea I doubt we see anything other than some rogue flurries if a band breaks off and moves through here. That was more meant for others to the east of here. Downeastnc, the other crazy part about what you posted is the low placement. I overlayed the first low with much more precip and it is quite a bit further east than the second image. Not often we see a low move 100 miles west when we want it to move west, but the precip then moves 100 miles east at the same time...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The good news is the HRRR is finally starting to shift the double low to the west and developing it stronger. Looks like it is transferring energy to the primary low that is west sooner this run, much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Regan said: didnt see many models with a low in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This may interest some of you guys..Don't think the air is too dry..The radar returns you see on the TN and NC border in the mountains is not virga..Look closely at the picture and you can see that it is now snowing above 5000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The snow has just moved in over my house. Only 5000 feet to go. It's a race against the clock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 BP just tweeted snow in Rockingham NC....about 1 hour EAST of Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 58 minutes ago, goldman75 said: Yeah, it’s Virga. And here in Myrtle beach that blue is just 30 degrees and raining atm Goldman, where in MB are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: The snow has just moved in over my house. Only 5000 feet to go. It's a race against the clock! Atleast we don't have to worry about temps for once. Don't get to say that often. Think the RAP is doing a little better then HRRR...I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Yea I doubt we see anything other than some rogue flurries if a band breaks off and moves through here. That was more meant for others to the east of here. Downeastnc, the other crazy part about what you posted is the low placement. I overlayed the first low with much more precip and it is quite a bit further east than the second image. Not often we see a low move 100 miles west when we want it to move west, but the precip then moves 100 miles east at the same time...? Yeah good graphic, all info points to a monster bomb off the SE coast and that's rare hard to imagine it doesn't crush central and eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said: Goldman, where in MB are you? Carolina forest area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Likely will be rain for most of the event in ILM. Warm nose is a beast currently. We shall see. I am skeptical we see much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Atleast we don't have to worry about temps for once. Don't get to say that often. Think the RAP is doing a little better then HRRR...I hope. Latest HRRRRR ticked back west a bit. Back with a little snow over Wake. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Latest HRRRRR ticked back west a bit. Back with a little snow over Wake. We'll see. Euro ticked NW again...has you 1.5-2", NW Wake has 1". But yeah, it has 2" up to Wake Co (well west of 95). 3-4" for FAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So the precipitation seems to have been blocked at this spot for about the last 4 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My guess is reconsolidating the LP in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, goldman75 said: Carolina forest area just a few miles from you in Forestbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RAH upping totals a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Lol, wasn't it just last year (or maybe the year before) that we had a weaker low sitting right over Hatteras, 25ish miles west of the one below, and we got rain and sleet here in the Triangle while places to the west got several inches? SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro much juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Latest HRRRRRRR continues to trend slower and more westward with the low. No longer dry for Wake. May look slightly better than the last run, precip-wise, if you can believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Latest HRRRRRRR continues to trend slower and more westward with the low. No longer dry for Wake. May look slightly better than the last run, precip-wise, if you can believe that. Maybe if you let the system develop as it bombs over the afternoon rather than reacting to ever model like it's the end of days you'll feel less of a need to obsess. Models are only telling one story right now, and the jet is making a symphony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: Maybe if you let the system develop as it bombs over the afternoon rather than reacting to ever model like it's the end of days you'll feel less of a need to obsess. Models are only telling one story right now, and the jet is making a symphony. Maybe, but obsessing is more fun. Thanks for the tip, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRRRRRR is keying in on a south-north strip of heavy totals from Pamlico Sound into Tidewater. Not complaining, nearly a foot on the ground and some more to come at hr 18. Plus, that's 10:1 ratio. Very happy after today's runs! AKQ went from 4-6" last night to 8-12" at noon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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