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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

rduwx

By rduwx,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet looked much improved to me.  It actually looks similar to the CMC and Euro runs that had precip in E NC and SC....I don't know....precip maps come out later

Crud, they looked worse on the BW maps.  Guess we got to watch another day. 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Bet the ukie is seeing what euro has its last 2 runs by diving that last piece of ns energy south, instead of SE . They probably don't shear out the 1st piece as flat as gfs. Canadian doesn't shear out 1st piece as bad as gfseitheir, but the 2cnd piece drops in due SE which pushes the phase, capture way out in the atlantic. Thing to watch is if the euro continues to dive piece 2 south and not SE. Wish ukie had nice 5h maps with 3 to 6 hr increments instead of 24.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Ukie looks close to the Euro,much lower pressure on the southeast coast compared to 12Z.

Enough to keep me interested.

Yeah I have seen to many storms do exactly like this and fade away in the mid range only to come back inside of 72 hrs as the waves are actually sampled etc....so while there really isn't much encouraging in the models its better to have cold with a suppressed to nonexistent storm than the models showing a Apps runner and temps in the 40-50's....

If the Euro keeps the storm then having it and the Ukie showing a low close to the coast in this range is ok by me in fact I cant think of two models I would rather have in my camp.....heck the fact the GFS doesn't have it at all is probably all the proof you need there will be a storm close to the coast next Wed....

 

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

KGSP AFD

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/     AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...THE OP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD   AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE LARGE   SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE SPLIT FLOW H5 FLOW LEADING TO STRONG SUBS   AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD ARCTIC SFC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE   NRN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. WITH VERY DENSE AIR...THE HIGH WILL   BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST AND SLOW TO MODIFY THRU THE PERIOD. IT WILL   BREAK DOWN WED AS A DRY AND STRONG H5 S/W DIVES INTO THE MEAN ERN   TROF. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH SHUD QUICKLY REINFORCE   THE LLVL AIRMASS ON THU.     NOT SEEING ANY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FLUX   BECOMES MIXED AND EVAPORATED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE CA AIRMASS. ACROSS   THE SRN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH...A MOIST BNDRY WILL BE HELD WELL SOUTH   OF THE FA WHILE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TOO FAR OFF THE ATL COAST FOR ANY   WINTRY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FA. THE LATEST ECMWF IS   NOW IN SYNC WITH THE GFS/CMC SOLNS WRT TO THE MASS FIELDS AND THE   SRN EXTENT OF THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS. THUS...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD   CONFIDENCE IN A DRY SCENARIO THRU THE PERIOD. ALBEIT THERE IS AN   OUTSIDE CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND -SHRA LATE WED INTO THU OVER THE FAR   NC MTNS. EVEN THIS MOISTURE IS MORE SUSPECT NOW AS THE REINFORCING   CA SFC HIGH RIDGES EAST. SO...HAVE LOWERED THE ALREADY LOW POPS   ACROSS THE WRN NC MTNS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS.     WIND CHILL ISSUES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NC MTNS BOTH MON AND WED   NIGHTS AS THE P/GRAD INCREASES DURING THESE TIME PERIOD. WINDS WONT   BE THAT STRONG...HOWEVER AMBIENT TEMPS WILL BE SO LOW THAT APPARENT   TEMPS SHUD DROP INTO THE ADV OR WARNING CATEGORY FAIRLY EASILY. EVEN   WITH GOOD SUNSHINE...A PROLONGED COLD PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX   TEMPS HELD ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON AND TUE. A LITTLE   WARMER WED AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY MORE EFFICIENTLY...BUT   ANOTHER BIG TEMP DROP BELOW NORMAL IS EXPECTED THU AS THE LATEST   ARCTIC HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA. MINS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL   THRU THE PERIOD WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND   TEENS LIKELY OVER THE NON/MTNS EACH MORNING. THUS...A COLD WAVE IS   STILL A LEGITIMATE THREAT AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO.    

 

KGSP Earlier Thursday Discussion on Next Week:

    LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/     AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR SOME SNOW NEXT   WEEK, PREPARE TO HAVE YOUR DREAMS CRUSHED. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL   ECMWF HAS BEEN INTERESTING ON THE PAST TWO RUNS, DEVELOPING   LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND THEN MOVING IT NORTH WHILE   DEEPENING ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS ONLY MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM THE   ENSEMBLES, AND THE TREND (SHORT AS IT IS) IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE   FARTHER EAST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS THIS DEVELOPMENT EVEN FARTHER   OFFSHORE AND KEEPS US EVEN MORE BONE DRY. THE GREATEST CONCERN   WOULD BE THE EASTERN FRINGE, BUT THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM OFF THE 12Z   RUN HAS ONLY A HALF-DOZEN MEMBERS THAT GIVE CLT LESS-THAN-ADVISORY   LEVEL SNOW IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. THAT'S NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR   HAT ON. THE REMAINING SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIP FROM THIS   SYSTEM WOULD BE IF THE TROF AXIS IS FARTHER WEST THUS BRINGING THE   LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES   IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS WHERE THE GUIDANCE HAS A POTENTIAL STORM   OUT ON DAYS 5-7 ONLY FOR IT TO EVAPORATE IN THE INTERVENING TIME,   LEAVING US WITH NOTHING BUT COLD TEMPS AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SLIGHT   CHANCE OF PRECIP WAS INHERITED FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, BUT HAVE   TAKEN IN OUT BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE   ENSEMBLES. THE ONE ITEM THAT WAS KEPT WAS THE POTENTIAL NW FLOW   SNOW EVENT WED NITE AND THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP NNW   FLOW THAT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MIGHT TAP SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE   ON THURSDAY, BEFORE THAT STREAM GETS RE-DIRECTED TOWARD THE CENTRAL   APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE   OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THE   TREND WILL BE UPWARD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.    

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