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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

rduwx

By rduwx,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, hrtsdsn said:

I am east of Charlotte.   The Weatherbug map shows SC practically covered by snow or mix.    Is the snow south of me all virga?

 

E80CA99B-B683-48D9-A7CE-651167B6BFC2.png

the vast majority of it is. I was watching earlier around macon and even with 25 to 30dbz it didn't reach the ground there according to base reflectivity. the air is absurdly dry below cloud level. 

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, griteater said:

This is a decent simulation from the RGEM model.  IMO you are going to fight some warm nosing there (warm air moving in aloft)...so, I'd go with some light icing (frz rain) and then transitioning to some light snow & sleet accumulations

1VV1kSu.gif

Unfortunately for you and I, this simulation matches up CLOSE with the current radar. Hoping for a magical INVERTED Trough or something. Otherwise, I am starting to see through my weenie goggles and see the writing on the wall for the Charlotte Metro and neighboring counties. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Honestly not sure what to expect here now.....I still think 4-6" is easily possible but it seems my hopes of 12"+ have been Nam'd. Still hard to imagine a power house low like that 150 miles to my east and all I get is 2-3".....guess its pretty much watch and wait time.....sun coming and going temp up to 32 DP close to 20.....hopefully snowing by dark.

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tramadoc

tramadoc

Posted
Posted
Honestly not sure what to expect here now.....I still think 4-6" is easily possible but it seems my hopes of 12"+ have been Nam'd. Still hard to imagine a power house low like that 150 miles to my east and all I get is 2-3".....guess its pretty much watch and wait time.....sun coming and going temp up to 32 DP close to 20.....hopefully snowing by dark.
I'm with you. Not sure what to expect now. It's like a yo-yo on a string.
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CentralNC

CentralNC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Honestly not sure what to expect here now.....I still think 4-6" is easily possible but it seems my hopes of 12"+ have been Nam'd. Still hard to imagine a power house low like that 150 miles to my east and all I get is 2-3".....guess its pretty much watch and wait time.....sun coming and going temp up to 32 DP close to 20.....hopefully snowing by dark.

Well if anyone on this board is still in a good spot, it would be you.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Honestly not sure what to expect here now.....I still think 4-6" is easily possible but it seems my hopes of 12"+ have been Nam'd. Still hard to imagine a power house low like that 150 miles to my east and all I get is 2-3".....guess its pretty much watch and wait time.....sun coming and going temp up to 32 DP close to 20.....hopefully snowing by dark.

i am amazed too...

i don't think i've ever seen anything quite like this. 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_012_0000.gif

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Unfortunately for you and I, this simulation matches up CLOSE with the current radar. Hoping for a magical INVERTED Trough or something. Otherwise, I am starting to see through my weenie goggles and see the writing on the wall for the Charlotte Metro and neighboring counties. 

I hope you never put the weenie goggles on!  This was never, ever an event for charlotte metro or the central / northern piedmont areas.  All the mets and models have been fairly well aligned for nearly a week now that RDU would be the western cutoff with everything else being virga.  That is exactly whats playing out today.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

I think our best/last hope (in the triangle) is some type of explosive deepening this afternoon/early evening as this hits the gulf stream and consolidates/phases. I hope the models were onto something with this SLP showing 950's offshore HAT.

 

We need it to happen earlier than anticipated. If we are fortunate enough for that to happen, my guess is this axis of virga over SC will eventually congeal and form a deformation band over eastern NC. My sweet spot for the southeastern forum would likely be VA Beach/Tidewater area as I mentioned yesterday. They are in the prime spot to be lit up. I still think Greenville will do well, but not as well as them.

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tramadoc

tramadoc

Posted
Posted
I think our best/last hope (in the triangle) is some type of explosive deepening this afternoon/early evening as this hits the gulf stream and consolidates/phases. I hope the models were onto something with this SLP showing 950's offshore HAT.
 
We need it to happen earlier than anticipated. If we are fortunate enough for that to happen, my guess is this axis of virga over SC will eventually congeal and form a deformation band over eastern NC. My sweet spot for the southeastern forum would likely be VA Beach/Tidewater area as I mentioned yesterday. That are in the prime spot to be lit up. I still think Greenville will do well, but not as well as them.
I'm guessing that includes Elizabeth City.
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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH - 11:32am update. 

The storm or low pressure was developing off the east coast of FL 
this morning. With the very dry air in place inland over GA/SC/NC, 
the radar returns(although fairly widespread over SC) are still not 
enough to produce measurable precipitation very far inland from the 
coast. And if the new 12z models are correct in trends, then we can 
delay the onset of snow in our south and east, and potentially 
decrease the final resultant QPF/snow inland a bit. Still, Winter 
Storm conditions with snow are expected to affect areas along and 
east of Interstate 95 very late today and into tonight. The westward 
extent of snow accumulations are still expected to be along and east 
of a line extending from near Wadesboro to Sanford... Raleigh... and 
Henderson... give or take 25 miles or so. However, the trends show 
some decrease inland and this will have to be addressed.
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DJnVa

DJnVa

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
22 minutes ago, downeastnc said:
Honestly not sure what to expect here now.....I still think 4-6" is easily possible but it seems my hopes of 12"+ have been Nam'd. Still hard to imagine a power house low like that 150 miles to my east and all I get is 2-3".....guess its pretty much watch and wait time.....sun coming and going temp up to 32 DP close to 20.....hopefully snowing by dark.

I'm with you. Not sure what to expect now. It's like a yo-yo on a string.

 

WAVY TV just UPPED your area to 6-9"

 

zsnow-map.png?w=650

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tramadoc

tramadoc

Posted
Posted
RAH - 11:32am update.
The storm or low pressure was developing off the east coast of FL this morning. With the very dry air in place inland over GA/SC/NC, the radar returns(although fairly widespread over SC) are still not enough to produce measurable precipitation very far inland from the coast. And if the new 12z models are correct in trends, then we can delay the onset of snow in our south and east, and potentially decrease the final resultant QPF/snow inland a bit. Still, Winter Storm conditions with snow are expected to affect areas along and east of Interstate 95 very late today and into tonight. The westward extent of snow accumulations are still expected to be along and east of a line extending from near Wadesboro to Sanford... Raleigh... and Henderson... give or take 25 miles or so. However, the trends show some decrease inland and this will have to be addressed.

AKQ hasn't updated yet. Haven't checked MHX.
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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:
I think our best/last hope (in the triangle) is some type of explosive deepening this afternoon/early evening as this hits the gulf stream and consolidates/phases. I hope the models were onto something with this SLP showing 950's offshore HAT.
 
We need it to happen earlier than anticipated. If we are fortunate enough for that to happen, my guess is this axis of virga over SC will eventually congeal and form a deformation band over eastern NC. My sweet spot for the southeastern forum would likely be VA Beach/Tidewater area as I mentioned yesterday. That are in the prime spot to be lit up. I still think Greenville will do well, but not as well as them.

I'm guessing that includes Elizabeth City.

Youre sitting in about the best spot you can be in... If you're in NC.

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SteveVa

SteveVa

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

My sweet spot for the southeastern forum would likely be VA Beach/Tidewater area as I mentioned yesterday. They are in the prime spot to be lit up. I still think Greenville will do well, but not as well as them.

I was a bit iffy on snow totals here (NW Va Beach) since I'm always afraid it'll mix more than modeled, but I feel better now... Thank you for your insight. 

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I have been watching weather for some 20 years, and it is pretty rare to get snow and ice to the Georgia, SC, and Jacksonville coast areas. Wow, even 0.20" of freezing rain is a disaster, traffic-wise.

lvjUM3v.png

yeah what has made this really impressive besides the amounts is that temps have been in the upper 20s..not one of those borderline 32 degree tree top ice events.

That makes two very unusual and very impressive events for Georgia these past 4 weeks...despite the fact large portions of the state have been left out...including my house. :gun_bandana:

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I think our best/last hope (in the triangle) is some type of explosive deepening this afternoon/early evening as this hits the gulf stream and consolidates/phases. I hope the models were onto something with this SLP showing 950's offshore HAT.

 

We need it to happen earlier than anticipated. If we are fortunate enough for that to happen, my guess is this axis of virga over SC will eventually congeal and form a deformation band over eastern NC. My sweet spot for the southeastern forum would likely be VA Beach/Tidewater area as I mentioned yesterday. They are in the prime spot to be lit up. I still think Greenville will do well, but not as well as them.

We need the models to show this thing bombing earlier like yesterday..... 4-6" looks ok still and that's a good hit any time. I think the models are overdoing the effects of the dry air its 34/14...crazy that the NAM went from this

5a4d115f15a29_Nam31.thumb.png.0bc5cda3fa550a669377d9f7e289ed3e.png

to this.....just hope that the runs last evening were right and the ones today are under doing the precip

5a4d116e43cc0_nam32.thumb.png.0f50c80eb02e17dd73b07ee1b5b2d69b.png

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GunBlade

GunBlade

Posted
Posted

I would keep an eye on the precip field the next couple hours.  Models like the RAP have it really consolidating and tightening up, bringing most of the precip closer to shore and not interior NC much at all.

The precip field is already more expansive to the North especially and somewhat to the west compared to what short term models showed for this time frame.

Now, it could be the virga is so expansive that most are under virga the whole storm and see nothing and the models precip field more accurately depicts where it will actually fall and accumulate.

Will be very interesting to watch for sure.

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