Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Plus, that is a pretty sizable shift west from the RGEM over 6 hours ago, unless I'm not looking at it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 AKQ is all in. They’re obviously holding a straight flush and aren’t worried about the river or the flop. Let’s see what the ECMWF, NAM, & GFS are holding.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: well...latest hrrr came west with precip. splits meck county in half. CAE added lancaster and chesterfield to the WWA, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is a little more generous to the west with precip, but not much. HRRR seems to be supporting a little dryslotting for RDU when compared to its previous run. :/ Not a lot, but it's definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Plus, that is a pretty sizable shift west from the RGEM over 6 hours ago, unless I'm not looking at it right. It does cut off but 6 hour to late...you can see it really cranking then too. I would take the below snow map and run...a few hours of light snow, maybe accumulating for you. If it closes off 6 hours earlier then shift everything west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: It does cut off but 6 hour to late...you can see it really cranking then too. I would take the below snow map and run...a few hours of light snow, maybe accumulating for you. If it closes off 6 hours earlier then shift everything west. That's wild! Thanks for the analysis. Amazing how just a few hours can change everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: It does cut off but 6 hour to late...you can see it really cranking then too. I would take the below snow map and run...a few hours of light snow, maybe accumulating for you. If it closes off 6 hours earlier then shift everything west. Yeah, I guess we'll take it. It's the best we got right now. HRRR continues to follow the NAM and lose the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 After that epic run last night that put down some 20inch+ accumulations in e NC and se Va, the 3kNAM was probably just balancing things out a bit with that last run. - Upper level energy still in the GoM - weak area of low pressure off the east coast of central Fla as has been mentioned, will begin to deepen once that upper energy gets a little closer - maybe 2-3 more hours - then we will see the general direction of the slp. Right now visual presentation looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: That's wild! Thanks for the analysis. Amazing how just a few hours can change everything. That initial overrunning before the low consolidates is probably our only hope...once it fires back up it's gained to much latitude to wrap around to us. Thats why we are seeing a dryslot, it's just when/where the low consolidates. We would be better off with a later consolidation and dual low just running up the coast, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The combination of the dynamics kicking into high gear slightly too late as well as this bone dry air is why you are seeing the models struggle to generate as much precipitation in the Triangle region. Look at that 900-ish layer as the precip approaches on the latest HRRR. Is it correct? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Tons of moisture down in Florida right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I guess we'll take it. It's the best we got right now. HRRR continues to follow the NAM and lose the snow. I may go hit the bar early and drink myself into a coma because having to watch the radar look like this tonight will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Question about that HRRR sounding from RDU. Is there supposed to be an influx of drier area coming in during the day today? I mean right now RDU is I think 23/12 and that sounding has the surface at 35/7 at 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunv Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For us in central NC, we better hope the western slp dominates or the energy transfer from the dual lows will dryslot us. Glad I had low expectations for this storm, we’ll be lucky to make out a dusting in RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Raleigh doesn’t equal wake county. Eastern wake would still get a good coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think there is still a chance for this system to over perform given the dynamics, but agree with the analysis from Pack and MSU that it is a bit of a long shot for areas RDU west due to the extremely dry air and timing of the consolidation of the slp. Still some uncertainty though and over performing is not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I swear this looks like a tropical cyclone.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Question about that HRRR sounding from RDU. Is there supposed to be an influx of drier area coming in during the day today? I mean right now RDU is I think 23/12 and that sounding has the surface at 35/7 at 22z. Most of that drier air at the surface will be due to mixing from the mid-levels as the surface heats up this morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is a pretty good tool for monitoring real time temp and dew point and other obs. I agree with the other poster that dp will be somewhat of an indicator of the shutoff line http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&address=&type=&noho=&rawsflag=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS came in a bit better with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandhillsSnowLover Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks and sounds like the WRAL weather team made the right call about not inflating accumulation numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Jonathan Wall tweeted about 30 mins ago that the latest 3k Nam everyone is falling apart about its wrong if you want to go check it out. I saw that the quiet Eric Webb retweeted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Regan said: Jonathan Wall tweeted about 30 mins ago that the latest 3k Nam everyone is falling apart about its wrong if you want to go check it out. I saw that the quiet Eric Webb retweeted it. Why did he say it was wrong? Can you repost it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For all of its faults, the GFS is pretty good with QPF when you get close in. Here is 24 hour precip for the GFS, then RGEM (RDPS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, griteater said: For all of its faults, the GFS is pretty good with QPF when you get close in. Here is 24 hour precip for the GFS, then RGEM (RDPS) Matches up with EPS mean...hard to beat the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, SandhillsSnowLover said: Looks and sounds like the WRAL weather team made the right call about not inflating accumulation numbers they always do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 58 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I did see that. At this point, I'd like to know if the dry air above us is as dry as the models would have you to believe. It certainly has trended more moist at the surface. Jeremy, I just peeked at the radar (after giving it a 45 minute to an hour break) and you will not believe how that sucker is turning negative and to my untrained eye appears to be tracking closer to the coast OR there is MORE precip being thrown into the mix. There is a wall of Snow INBOUND. May be a wall of VIRGA porn, but it is a start. Things are looking better by the minute, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Matches up with EPS mean...hard to beat the EPS mean. Agree...and to me, the current radar matches well with keeping the core of the precip along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mike V's Deep Thunder model...matches up well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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