DJnVa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 29 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: hrrr almost identical look as the nam 3k. red flags should be going up if you love snow. Figures. We get the setup of a lifetime and we get screwed. We could screw up a bar mitzvah. They just issued a blizzard warning for Chesapeake, VA, just a bit north of you...relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The low develops just in time to slam NE NC and SE VA with a death band, still 12"+ for mby. Unfortunately, RDU gets dryslottedThat's what AKQ thinks. Unfortunately I think the NAM is correct. We will be all dressed up and nowhere to go. I feel we get rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WWA for union county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 They just issued a blizzard warning for Chesapeake, VA, just a bit north of you...relax.I just saw that. My wife is a mail carrier in Camden County. They have a blizzard warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wondering if there's any special balloon releases today to see if we can confirm what we're seeing on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, SteveVa said: The low develops just in time to slam NE NC and SE VA with a death band, still 12"+ for mby. Unfortunately, RDU gets dryslotted Yep..going to be great in Va Beach, hard to mess that up. But I did think PGV looked golden for 4-6"...and still do. RGEM looks roughly the same for eastern NC and up to your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 AKQ CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 8 minutes ago, SteveVa said: The low develops just in time to slam NE NC and SE VA with a death band, still 12"+ for mby. Unfortunately, RDU gets dryslotted That's what AKQ thinks. Unfortunately I think the NAM is correct. We will be all dressed up and nowhere to go. I feel we get rain or nothing. Relax, worst case (model) scenario is the RGEM which has us mixing long into the night...and even then we get a couple of inches. Unless something drastically changes, we're nearly in the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Wondering if there's any special balloon releases today to see if we can confirm what we're seeing on soundings. Didn't Solak post that the Hurricane hunters were going to fly into it today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Didn't Solak post that the Hurricane hunters were going to fly into it today?Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, frazdaddy said: Didn't Solak post that the Hurricane hunters were going to fly into it today? Believe the flight was scheduled for 1900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wondering if there's any special balloon releases today to see if we can confirm what we're seeing on soundings. Someone said they were going to be flying into the low today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, frazdaddy said: Didn't Solak post that the Hurricane hunters were going to fly into it today? I did see that. At this point, I'd like to know if the dry air above us is as dry as the models would have you to believe. It certainly has trended more moist at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Wondering if there's any special balloon releases today to see if we can confirm what we're seeing on soundings. Yes...I know CHS and the air base is here, so I would imagine it will be all down the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: WWA for union county. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM EST Wednesday: Looking at new guidance, all but the GFS are now bringing snow into eastern portions of the CWA (see the previous AFD for an excellent overview of synoptic and mesoscale features). SREF probs bring over 60% chance 1" or greater to SE Union (NC) and portions of Chester SC. SREF mean is down a tad for CLT, but with the RAP and all other hires guidance continuing to indicate this adjustment, feel it`s best to go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Union N and Chester. Even if snow totals do not quite reach advisory criteria (1" for the Piedmont), the very cold antecedent road conditions are cause for concern. We`ve seen this happen multiple times - a couple of note are 1/19/05 in Raleigh and of course the infamous Atlanta Snowjam in January 2014. With temperatures ahead of the event in the 20s, and road temperatures as well, even a dusting can result in a nightmare for roads. Friction from tires can melt the snow and then it would re-freeze. Better safe than sorry, especially given this will occur during rush hour, and especially since NC schools are back in session, this could be an issue for buses. Adjusted temps as well to lower them where the snow is expected, but otherwise very few changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Solak said: Believe the flight was scheduled for 1900. you are on it as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I did see that. At this point, I'd like to know if the dry air above us is as dry as the models would have you to believe. It certainly has trended more moist at the surface. Yeah thats the key. We need to quit with the models and look actual real time data upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: not sure what models these are based off, but shows a little different tale than the Nam regarding that dryslot. That’s the 0Z runs tho. A lot has changed in these 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM didn't get the message about the weaker positively tilted h5 vort. If anything it initialized stronger then it's previous runs and the latest NAM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ashe, that's from 0z. It was drier than the 12z. The 12z will be drier than this one. But it's our last hope. The WRF ARW-2. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: not sure what models these are based off, but shows a little different tale than the Nam regarding that dryslot. From 00z though, nam started the dryslot this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM actually gets moderate snow into union county for the first time for a frame or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That’s the 0Z runs tho. A lot has changed in these 12 hours. 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: From 00z though, nam started the dryslot this morning Took my post down, didn't realize that mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Yeah thats the key. We need to quit with the models and look actual real time data upstream. Ehh, I wouldn't say extrapolating radar and whatnot is more useful than short range models. For people anxiously waiting to see how this turns out and dying with every model run I'd suggest reading AFDs and other products the NWS issues. Even from weather offices other than your own. They'll talk about what they're seeing in the models, what to look for, causes for concern and optimism, etc. There are a lot of smart mets in our region making these forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM still shifting the SLP track west each run...but not enough for east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Ehh, I wouldn't say extrapolating radar and whatnot is more useful than short range models. For people anxiously waiting to see how this turns out and dying with every model run I'd suggest reading AFDs and other products the NWS issues. Even from weather offices other than your own. They'll talk about what they're seeing in the models, what to look for, causes for concern and optimism, etc. There are a lot of smart mets in our region making these forecasts. Not about extrapolating. Comparisons what was modeled vs what is actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Pack, the precip field back west looks much better though. I guess that's good. Let's see if the next frame can do what the NAM can't and show some snow back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 well...latest hrrr came west with precip. splits meck county in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah looking at the radar, then hoping it translate well downstream doesn't really work out that too much. Plenty of times, a radar has looked good upstream, then falls apart as it nears your location. I'll say this. The HRRR was scarily accurate within 12 hours for the early December event in the Atlanta area and nailed mesoscale banding within 7. I think it's still prone to subtle changes after 7 and signficant changes after 12. I wouldn't bet against it within 7 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 There is an observations thread for people that want to analyze current conditions and there is this thread to discuss whatever about the storm, short range models included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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