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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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7 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
29 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:
hrrr almost identical look as the nam 3k. red flags should be going up if you love snow.
 

Figures. We get the setup of a lifetime and we get screwed. We could screw up a bar mitzvah.

 

They just issued a blizzard warning for Chesapeake, VA, just a bit north of you...relax.

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5 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

The low develops just in time to slam NE NC and SE VA with a death band, still 12"+ for mby.

Unfortunately, RDU gets dryslotted

Yep..going to be great in Va Beach, hard to mess that up.  But I did think PGV looked golden for 4-6"...and still do.

RGEM looks roughly the same for eastern NC and up to your area.

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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
8 minutes ago, SteveVa said:
The low develops just in time to slam NE NC and SE VA with a death band, still 12"+ for mby.
Unfortunately, RDU gets dryslotted

That's what AKQ thinks. Unfortunately I think the NAM is correct. We will be all dressed up and nowhere to go. I feel we get rain or nothing.

Relax, worst case (model) scenario is the RGEM which has us mixing long into the night...and even then we get a couple of inches. Unless something drastically changes, we're nearly in the jackpot area. 

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5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

WWA for union county.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EST Wednesday: Looking at new guidance, all but the GFS
are now bringing snow into eastern portions of the CWA (see the
previous AFD for an excellent overview of synoptic and mesoscale
features). SREF probs bring over 60% chance 1" or greater to SE
Union (NC) and portions of Chester SC. SREF mean is down a tad for
CLT, but with the RAP and all other hires guidance continuing to
indicate this adjustment, feel it`s best to go ahead and issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for Union N and Chester. Even if snow totals
do not quite reach advisory criteria (1" for the Piedmont), the very
cold antecedent road conditions are cause for concern. We`ve seen
this happen multiple times - a couple of note are 1/19/05 in Raleigh
and of course the infamous Atlanta Snowjam in January 2014. With
temperatures ahead of the event in the 20s, and road temperatures as
well, even a dusting can result in a nightmare for roads. Friction
from tires can melt the snow and then it would re-freeze. Better
safe than sorry, especially given this will occur during rush hour,
and especially since NC schools are back in session, this could be
an issue for buses. Adjusted temps as well to lower them where the
snow is expected, but otherwise very few changes.
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3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Yeah thats the key. We need to quit with the models and look actual real time data upstream.

Ehh, I wouldn't say extrapolating radar and whatnot is more useful than short range models. 

For people anxiously waiting to see how this turns out and dying with every model run I'd suggest reading AFDs and other products the NWS issues. Even from weather offices other than your own. They'll talk about what they're seeing in the models, what to look for, causes for concern and optimism, etc. There are a lot of smart mets in our region making these forecasts.

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6 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Ehh, I wouldn't say extrapolating radar and whatnot is more useful than short range models. 

For people anxiously waiting to see how this turns out and dying with every model run I'd suggest reading AFDs and other products the NWS issues. Even from weather offices other than your own. They'll talk about what they're seeing in the models, what to look for, causes for concern and optimism, etc. There are a lot of smart mets in our region making these forecasts.

Not about extrapolating. Comparisons what was modeled vs what is actually happening.

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Yeah looking at the radar, then hoping it translate well downstream doesn't really work out that too much. Plenty of times, a radar has looked good upstream, then falls apart as it nears your location. I'll say this. The HRRR was scarily accurate within 12 hours for the early December event in the Atlanta area and nailed mesoscale banding within 7. I think it's still prone to subtle changes after 7 and signficant changes after 12. I wouldn't bet against it within 7 hours though.

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