ajr Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Dew points are rising and the system sure looks ready to dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The best short range model is the rgem My memory is bad but didn’t the NAM nail the storm in December when the RGEM missed it? I know to ignore the Euro and GFS now but I thought that at the NAM was the most reliable at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowinnc said: My memory is bad but didn’t the NAM nail the storm in December when the RGEM missed it? I know to ignore the Euro and GFS now but I thought that at the NAM was the most reliable at this time. The NAM nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, ajr said: Dew points are rising and the system sure looks ready to dance. GFS just had a major bust on dewpoints here. Almost 20 degrees off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Neutral heading toward Negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: Neutral heading toward Negative Big implications for parts of GA, Central NC, etc. if the neutral tilt happens sooner. And it’s looking like it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowinnc said: My memory is bad but didn’t the NAM nail the storm in December when the RGEM missed it? I know to ignore the Euro and GFS now but I thought that at the NAM was the most reliable at this time. The rgem was spot on in my area. It's global partner the cmc was one of the best models in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This storm is going negative. The Wave out west is catching up and in turn means we will see more precip in the western areas of GA, NC & SC. NWS-GSP has been mentioning this in their past couple olf updates as well. We are on the verge of seeing this thing explode. Correct? I am personally feeling the excitement building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: This storm is going negative. The Wave out west is catching up and in turn means we will see more precip in the western areas of GA, NC & SC. NWS-GSP has been mentioning this in their past couple olf updates as well. We are on the verge of seeing this thing explode. Correct? I am personally feeling the excitement building. If it goes negative earlier than forecast then the precip shield would move closer to us before getting kicked out as it moves NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 latest hrrr has the edge of precip just to the east of clt. florence would be getting some great snowfall here verbatim. still has the double low offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I feel like all my fave social media weather fans / mets are quiet. John Wall went all out on twitter last night... had too big of a dopamine release - prob sleeping or hung over from the excitement. Allan Huffman, the legend of the call maps, only tweeted once this AM, but in regards to North Florida's snow/ice. Eric Webb - after dropping his map of all first call maps and small dissertation.... has been mildly quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That precip in FL looks way east for the triangle. We need it in Alabama at least. Tell me I am wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Wow said: If it goes negative earlier than forecast then the precip shield would move closer to us before getting kicked out as it moves NNE It appears to still be in a semi-neutral to negative @Wow? What are your thoughts on the radar, etc. Do you think we are more in the game now or is this just a tease, before reality sets in. Thanks in advance for any input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WOW just WOW I hope this is okay but I just copied and pasted this from the Southern Weather forums. WxSouth Batton down the hatches and hold on tight along the East Coast--This thing is about to enter full Beast Mode and is going to max out its energy all along the East Coast in rare fashion from Florida to Canada, slamming the Entire Eastern Seaboard of America, in a nearly once in a lifetime setup. All ingredients are now coming together rapidly with tremendous energy aloft, in the warm waters and incredible barocliinic thermal boundary, with a tremendous negative tilt southern trough about to fully phase in a very unusual spot in the Southeast. The fully phased storm will bomb out as it rides north, up the entire east Coast, hugging the Coast and producing Blizzard Conditions from North Carolina to Maine as time goes by. Heavy snow and ice totals all the way to Florida and Georgia with the biggest snow and ice drop in Georgia to Florida in Decades. The system is pulling further west, having an earlier head start than forecast in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and will rapidly intensify and expand through the eastern halves of the Carolinas and Virginia and now places more areas of the Piedmont in snow totals as well. But the blizzard portion should reside from eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and up the Eastern Seaboard late tonight and Thursday, with up to a foot of windswept snow, and possibly thundersnow and thundersleet episodes very near the immediate east coast at times, with increasing winds. If your area was expected to be on the western edge of the storm, pay close attention now and some forecasts have already been changed, many more are likely to be changed and includes some major metros like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and DC. This is a dynamite setup and the fuse has been lit, now it's wait and see. Following the storm, more intense cold comes well south, with below zero Wind Chills again as far south as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I feel like all my fave social media mets at quiet. John Wall went all out on twitter last night... had too big of a dopamine release - prob sleeping or hung over from the excitement. Allan Huffman, the legend of the call maps, only tweeted once this AM, but in regards to North Florida's snow/ice. Eric Webb - after dropping a his map of all first call maps and small dissertation.... has been mildly quiet. These guys are watching the horses come around the final turn into the home stretch. ---ie. If this thing goes neg tilt earlier---Then they will make their final calls for NC I suspect. Horses are racing quickly into that turn. Binoculars are up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 latest sref came in a little wetter for clt, lets see if the nam comes west w precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: These guys are watching the horses come around the final turn into the home stretch. ---ie. If this thing goes neg tilt earlier---Then they will make their final calls for NC I suspect. Horses are racing quickly into that turn. Binoculars are up! LOL - I love it. As any true weather enthusiast (as 95% of us in here are) - I wish every man best of luck today. I am rooting for EVERYONE! There is no rivalry here. I am proud of how far we have come in the past 72 hours. GODSPEED MY FRIENDS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 wow..Robert is going all in on this. that's enough for me. time for the bread and milk. and the news stations, RAH,all need to start catching up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is the low forming now on the east coast of florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Returns starting to pop in Western NC. Probably not much to it but interested to even see any returns this far west this early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 And then it snowed in Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlover said: Returns starting to pop in Western NC. Probably not much to it but interested to even see any returns this far west this early in the game Virga for sure, but it shows the kind of lift this system is going to have. Eastern NC is going to get bombed imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 New NAM coming in stronger and more phasing it looks like, more negative tilt, should be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh yeah. Snow much farther west by 15, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: New NAM coming in stronger and more phasing it looks like, more negative tilt, should be a good run. Nah, not the 12km at least. Underwhelming. It is a bit further west with the precipitation field, but nothing show-stopping so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, msuwx said: Nah, not the 12km at least. Underwhelming. lol 986mb low and no precip to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yea NAM looks the driest it has been for a few days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: lol 986mb low and no precip to be found That doesn’t seem right?! Heh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The heaviest areas on the NAM are warm nosed to death. The light areas not so much. This is going to bust if that is true. Major ice as always here. Whoever sees snow, enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It seems like it developes a rather large dry slot as the lows consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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