Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Interesting because the map is unchanched really. Majority of Wake is light blue and less then 1 inch. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM average for MBY is probably 12-14", CMC/RGEM is 6-8", GFS/Euro is 2-3" Not sure what to expect MHX has 4-6" so I guess I root for the NAM to be right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For those Raleigh, Charlotte, Greensboro people, this is really interesting from GSP: As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest. Concern is growing that a baroclinic leaf structure might start lining up farther west than anticipated today as the system goes solidly neutral tilt over Georgia this afternoon, then negatively tilted crossing the western Carolinas. Upper jet divergence ahead of this feature should sharpen up very quickly over the central piedmont of the Carolinas from 18Z to 21Z and a robust region of deep layer Q-vector convergence will likely cross the area as well. Meanwhile, the associated surface reflection will likely develop near the north Florida coast and then deepen northward over the Carolina coastal waters. All of these features may well come together to provide just enough moisture, and improving forcing, for snow showers to develop mainly southeast of Charlotte. This could lead to some quick accumulations of snow on the very cold ground, especially over Union County NC this afternoon and early this evening. The current feeling is that any strong frontogenesis bands will set up east of the forecast area, so we shouldn`t be looking at any heavy convective rates in our forecast area - unless the aforementioned slower and more westward trends accelerate. Radar trends will need to be monitored closely today for a short fuse SPS or winter weather advisory should any snow showers threaten the lower piedmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 News around Raleigh this AM is still less than inch in Wake. That’s really discouraging. To be so close time wise and still hug the euro/gfs so completely. Last night Fish say most likely the highest even east sees was 2in or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For what it's worth, I saw a ring around the moon this morning driving into work in Raleigh, NC. It's faint, but it is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NWS still going with .25-.30 ice and 1-3" snow for mby. I know there will be a special sounding balloon this morning out of CHS (along the coast) to help with the pressure drop. TWC is going all in with 6-8 for mby and 8-10 just across the bridge in Beaufort/Ridgeland Radar returns are at my door step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gardner in WRAL this AM isn’t wanting to saw a whole lot it seems in amounts in Wake. Live, she said “aggressive” models suggest 1-2 here in Raleigh and the app says this: Sounds like we may get little notice. Seems they are setting us up for changes. Still being vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Regan said: Gardner in WRAL this AM isn’t wanting to saw a whole lot it seems in amounts in Wake. Live, she said “aggressive” models suggest 1-2 here in Raleigh and the app says this: So their forecast is... We don't have one we will wait until the event is happening then make a forecast. What a joke! Of course this is the station that tells their viewers "central nc is the hardest place to forecast weather". Just terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WRAL mets have pretty much sold out for the sake of "accuracy." sure they've been burned a few times and i understand them not wanting to bust but they dropped the ball big time on this one. all the local mets have. Now they're all scrambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I know it’s frustrating but they did the same thing last January and ended up right. Fishel has said a million times he’d rather be right than first. There must be something with this system they don’t quite like yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I look at this way... I get the tv mets fears of ratings. They get a lot of trouble from viewers. No envy there. I do however think they need to be more upfront. Just say look, get your stuff together because where it could be 1-2, we could be wrong here and it could be more because this is a complicated situation that doesn’t happen in these parts often. Just buy what you need. Yeah, we have free will and can go against them and buy food to stash, but so many people depend and hang on their last word and will be unprepared. So, for their sake... anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’m starting to be concerned about power outages in Eastern NC. 5-8 inches of snow with up to quarter inch of ice and winds up to 25 mph. We aren’t really prepared for conditions like this. Thankfully I have a generator but I’m concerned for people who don’t have that luxury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 But which models are showing good snow in Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The other thing I'm not sure of is timing/duration. Navgem has been trending this thing a bit later the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’m getting concerned about the wind potential and power outages from this. Latest 3km nam suggests gusts to 50mph to I-95 and near 100mph on the Outer Banks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the model radar forecast, it looks like the actual precip is more westward and robust. We'll have to watch this today to see how far precip develops to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 New Winter Storm Warnings are flying. My county went from nothing to WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RAP looks a bit west with the precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Looking at the model radar forecast, it looks like the actual precip is more westward and robust. We'll have to watch this today to see how far precip develops to the west. It always end up more NW with the precip.... this thing is gonna be a monster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Charleston is basically closed today. People are taking no chances with this snow. Almost nothing is open. Will probably be another little bit before it starts. Schools closed, most work is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'll go ahead and say it: I am thinking 1-2 for Raleigh will be the high end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Keep the discussion on topic. If you don't like what your local met is saying, go to school....get a degree....replace him/her and forecast away, while explaining the reason you think this way. Until then....drop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Maybe 3" for east Raleigh, 1" for west Raleigh. Meanwhile most of the Downeast that usually gets warm nosed, this time gets plastered - 7-9" should be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM has trended a bit west and stronger with the low over the past day, precipitation field hasn't really represented this well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My goodness thats energetic. Current analysis. - I also note that the atmosphere across the Southeast appears to be moistening up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: I'll go ahead and say it: I am thinking 1-2 for Raleigh will be the high end here. Interesting. What changed your thinking since last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Of course the 3k Scam caved for the Triangle. Of course it did. What a piece of garbage. It can’t be wrong when it shows the snow west. Nope. Anyway, it’s going to be fun watching this unfold today. Very powerful storm. West hallucinations should begin shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Of course the 3k Scam caved for the Triangle. Of course it did. What a piece of garbage. It can’t be wrong when it shows the snow west. Nope. Anyway, it’s going to be fun watching this unfold today. Very powerful storm. West hallucinations should begin shortly. The best short range model is the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Current radar trends seem more west to me than what the simulations depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The best short range model is the rgem It already screwed us before the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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