Jonathan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: I haven’t found one shred of evidence of ground truth to that radar in Southern Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. Nope. None of the METARs in the area are reporting anything but "Overcast" essentially all virga out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Nope. None of the METARs in the area are reporting anything but "Overcast" essentially all virga out there. Does Virga moisten the atmo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I haven’t found one shred of evidence of ground truth to that radar in Southern Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. Yeah, that radar is over done, but it does show the moisture in the air and the motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I haven’t found one shred of evidence of ground truth to that radar in Southern Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. One them sensitive radars...Like the intellicast radars. I'm looking at a radar that I get from work and it's not showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Does Virga moisten the atmo? Oh yeah. But usually that precip is very light so it hardly ever moistens the entire column and reaches the ground. I remember getting virga'd on for 12+ hours in Feb 2004 or 2005, don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, rduwx said: One them sensitive radars...Like the intellicast radars. I'm looking at a radar that I get from work and it's not showing that. If I had a dime for every time that intellicast radar showed snow over me back in the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: If I had a dime for every time that intellicast radar showed snow over me back in the day... Me and you both...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Local mets here in pensacola now calling for possible flurries along the NW Fla coast through mid morning. Absolutely amazing we may see snow falling twice within a few weeks here along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The RGEM is worrisome with the way those SLPs dance back and forth. That could really disrupt moisture transport. You get a precip max in GA/SW SC then as the western SLP transfers to the eastern SLP, you skip Myrtle Beach up through Wilmington, then another precip max in NE NC/SE VA. Also hurts the RDU folks and anyone I-95 and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Precip field on the north fringe at hour 7(location being North Florida, south Georgia) is more expansive by a small margin compared to previous runs on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So we’re already 6 degrees colder than the GFS anticipated tonight. If that translates to tomorrow, I would imagine that could help with evap cooling. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Channel 5 is predicting a tenth of an inch of ice and at least 2-3” of snow. Channel 4’s model had Charleston with nearly 6”, but the prediction is still 2-3” north of downtown. 3+ Georgetown County. 1-2” other places. The Channel 2 prediction is 2-3” east of the Stono, 1-2” west. May have to be upped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: So we’re already 6 degrees colder than the GFS anticipated tonight. If that translates to tomorrow, I would imagine that could help with evap cooling. I dunno. I dont think I can recall ever being 10-14 degrees the night before a snow storm here ever....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just got to Waycross Ga. Hunkered down here for the duration. This looks to be a primo spot for Southeast Georgia. Hearing anywhere from 4-7 inches of snow. Don’t think mixing will be a big issue. Expect to stay mainly snow throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Haven't looked at the HRDPS much since it doesn't have the SE component, but had to check this shot out. Absolutely gorgeous to see a 965 low off the coast like that. Reading rumors in the MA forum that the upper air charts of the GFS do support it possibly coming west even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Haven't looked at the HRDPS much since it doesn't have the SE component, but had to check this shot out. Absolutely gorgeous to see a 965 low off the coast like that. Reading rumors in the MA forum that the upper air charts of the GFS do support it possibly coming west even more. This particular storm in this particular situation would, for reasons unknown, have to be located over upper Louisiana to get precipitation in here. It’s sad, really, but it’s a beautiful storm on the models, once it gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: Just got to Waycross Ga. Hunkered down here for the duration. This looks to be a primo spot for Southeast Georgia. Hearing anywhere from 4-7 inches of snow. Don’t think mixing will be a big issue. Expect to stay mainly snow throughout. As a point of reference here, depending on which source you use 7" of snow in Waycross is equal to 35 to 70 years of their average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Haven't looked at the HRDPS much since it doesn't have the SE component, but had to check this shot out. Absolutely gorgeous to see a 965 low off the coast like that. Reading rumors in the MA forum that the upper air charts of the GFS do support it possibly coming west even more. Massive low. Best wishes for everyone living near the east coast. Please stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 UK holds serve, track and precip maps look nearly identical to the 12z run. Has a 976 low off Hatteras this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, jburns said: As a point of reference here, depending on which source you use 7" of snow in Waycross is equal to 35 to 70 years of their average snowfall. Lol. That’s about what I would have guessed as well. That’s why I figured it was worth the 250 mile drive from Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I dont think I can recall ever being 10-14 degrees the night before a snow storm here ever....... That's a dreamy setup in my book as long as the precip delivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Brad Panovich has slowly moved the precip field west some on his call map. Has "dusting to an inch" into Monroe just southeast of charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Good shift west in precip on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR has had the Low a little slower and further south/west the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: HRRR has had the Low a little slower and further south/west the last few runs. precip shield more expansive to the NW as well. little bit every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Correct me if I am wrong, but I SERIOUSLY DOUBT this is ALL VIRGA? Really? This thing is looking more and more robust. Even GSP is starting to throw in some wording in their FD! I know that this is the Intellicast Radar and will get flamed for it, but i guess what i am trying to say is how is this translating to obs. Anyone reporting anything in those areas. If anything, this would help soften up the atmosphere for the big dawg? http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: If you loop the last five runs the West shift is extremely real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Getting closer to CLT, inch by inch, run by run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Holy ****. 10+ for me or bust in Hampton, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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