packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: Good catch pack. Place ya bets folks! And you can see why the 12km has the QPF min from ILM up to RDU. SLP's consolidates the two into a new SLP so precip has to get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: Good lord!! Anyone have soundings for CHS? Paste bomb or no? What an unload of qpf. Can someone chime in on this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WakeCountyWX said: Good or Bad for the Triangle? Earlier phase is good for Triangle. Triad is still out of the game either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hey Pack, or Grit, when you do the PBP for the GFS, will you just say that its much further west and their is no virga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: I thought you were going to bed lol. Just can't put the models down Aggravating! LOL. GFS is trying but it will suck at this setup. Now it's time for bed...no other models to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, negative-nao said: Can someone chime in on this ? Here is an easy tool to use from 12km NAM...http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kchs.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 well...not exactly good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS low looks a little east compared to 18Z and precip lighter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Pretty good agreement from GFS with RGEM. Which looks alot like the EPS mean. Pretty safe to say to toss the 3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18Z GFS favored western vort, 00Z favored eastern vort....need there to be just one vort lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS has the eastern LP becoming the primary one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Regardless of the final outcome, let's all just take a minute to appreciate what a piece of crap the GFS is. That's a 200+ mile jump by the low pressure in one model cycle inside of 36 hours. Obviously no storm for me but just wanted to chime in and say I'm rooting for all you guys on the coast. I want to see someone get 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm going with the short range high res models at this point. Until the NAM folds, then I'm not discounting it. I like a blend at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 this is all I needed to see, I believe this is trending away from a multi low situation gfs keeps showing it in the longer range only to consolidate to the western low this is the very reason why we get burned by precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I'm going with the short range high res models at this point. Until the NAM folds, then I'm not discounting it. I like a blend at this point. How can you blend? This is a one or the other scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: How can you blend? This is a one or the other scenario I meant a blend of NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: And you can see why the 12km has the QPF min from ILM up to RDU. SLP's consolidates the two into a new SLP so precip has to get going again. I mentioned this in a post earlier. The double barrel LP was killing the moisture on the western side. It didn't really get going until it consolidated into one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not liking the end to tonight. Not over by a long shot, but this is definitely a warning sign that we shouldn't ignore. Every time we ignore we get burned. Let's hope it's wrong, but watch carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Losing confidence down here in the panhandle. HRRR persistent with lower QPF for TLH and its now within 10 hour window. GFS trended drier. Gulf precip not impressive. Sigh .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Good luck to all of you guys down east! Absolutely hoping you get a hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I meant a blend of NAM and RGEM The RGEM and GFS are supported to an extent by the last EPS. (more eastern consolidated LP) This may bet validated again in the wee hours by the 0z EPS run. The NAM is kind of by itself right now. 3k especially. (western LP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Welp, looks like ILM is about to miss again. This time with QPF it looks like smh. Always something. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's like the Bermuda Triangle there off the SE coast with all this cold air running into the Gulf Stream. Who the hell knows what is going to happen. Good posts above by Pack and others about the dual lows. To add to the mystery, most of this precip is dynamically driven on the NW side of the low as opposed to more predictable warm advection / overrunning precip. Of note for the coastal communities from Savannah to Wilmington, both the GFS and Euro have 80-100% of the precip as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Any volunteers for a commando mission to "disable" the snow shield? Speaking of disabling, If you can not up your game I'm going to disable your posting ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like like its coming together fairly well. I think the models will come in line. Maybe not as widespread as we would like, but I suspect there will be a good pasting for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jburns said: Speaking of disabling, If you can not up your game I'm going to disable your posting ability. Sorry, the possibilities were making me a bit giddy. I know that my proper place is a silent learner, since I don't have any model chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For tomorrow, things get complicated and will be highly dependent on the eventual track of coastal surface low. The 18Z NAM has remained a western outlier, bringing pops as far west as GRD to CLT, whereas the 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF have kept pops hugging closer to the coast, although they do bring very light qpf into the extreme southeast corner of the forecast area (essentially Union County, NC). This just goes to show the uncertainty in the northwestward extent of that deformation axis. WPC official forecast has no QPF or snow accum. For now, have brought in slight chance snow into portions of Union County, but readers are cautioned to remember that as with any weather event, this could change, and residents across the E/SE CLT Metro area should check the forecast tomorrow morning before making decisions for the day. Doubt that, in the end, anything significant would fall but taking into account antecedent conditions, which are very cold, it would only take a dusting to cause road problems. from GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Looks like like its coming together fairly well. I think the models will come in line. Maybe not as widespread as we would like, but I suspect there will be a good pasting for some folks. I just looked at radar and noticed this as well. It sure does look like radar is more moist than Hrrr is showing or any other model currently. Though some may be virga though. It sure does look better and better on radar. I have a feeling the qpf may reach more west than what people think. It will probably still find a way to screw us in ILM though lol. Who knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I haven’t found one shred of evidence of ground truth to that radar in Southern Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Two things to note based on these two. #1. LP is a little slower moving north on the HRRR #2......LP is moving almost directly NE after this shot on the HRRR, not sure that's reliable at all but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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