shahroz98 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The NWS for ATL is seeming pretty optimistic for what they normally say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Getting flashbacks on why I hated 2010 so much...Dec/Jan was well BN, we missed the blizzard to our west in Dec, we got the miller B sleet storm end of Jan and then we had to watch the MA get 300 inches of snow all while freezing our butts off for 3+ months. Hopefully if Mother Nature has mercy on us we blow torch after mid Jan through spring. Well, if nothing else, at least it will be interesting to see just how cold it can get. FFC has me with a high of 32 on Thursday. Let's see if we can muster together a couple days AOB freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Bitter much? Just saw the weeklies...feel a little relieved. #preemergent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: The NWS for ATL is seeming pretty optimistic for what they normally say Honestly, I'm more interested in the cold now. Every system keeps falling apart on us, but one variable that is certain is the brutal cold coming. If the cold is gonna be so strong that is squashes all systems way south, then the cold damn well better be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 La Ninas are famous for threats suddenly showing up within 5 days. That’s how I think the next one will go. This isn’t an El Niño season where we track the same wave for 10 days and it’s there consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: La Ninas are famous for threats suddenly showing up within 5 days. That’s how I think the next one will go. This isn’t an El Niño season where we track the same wave for 10 days and it’s there consistently. I think all of us here hope you are right about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Sigma Values are drastically lowering in the 18GFS ens suite. Expect no drastic changes for this storm. Margin of error is narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The 18z GFS isn’t too far off of giving the FL panhandle and SE GA some snow. I guess in the rare times this area gets snow, this is the kind of pattern we want. It hasn’t happened in decades, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 RAH's afternoon discussion(...nothing we don't already know): Tuesday through Thursday: High confidence that the very cold weather will continue through mid week. Expect highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s to continue. Much lower confidence in the precipitation forecast. The next potential weather maker will develop over the Northern Rockies as an upper level wave on Monday, diving south through the Plains and eastward through the Midwest on Tuesday. As seems to have been the case the past few weeks, the models can`t seem to agree on how this system will evolve and what the resulting weather over Central NC will be. Even small variations in the amplitude and southern extent of the aforementioned wave could result in very different weather forecast for the area. The EC has been wetter over NC but has been more consistent from run-to- run. On the other hand, the GFS has been drier, but has trended toward the EC with the latest (12Z) run. The feature in question at the surface is the low that develops over the Atlantic. How strong it is and it`s proximity to the east coast of the US will determine if/what weather we will see here. Again, the EC solution has the low much closer to the NC coast while the GFS is farther out over the Atlantic. Given such large differences the precipitation forecast for this period is low confidence and high uncertainty. Have kept the forecast dry, with precipitation chances below slight for now, but would not be surprised to see an introduction of some wintry precip in the southeast in the coming days if current trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: The 18z GFS isn’t too far off of giving the FL panhandle and SE GA some snow. I guess in the rare times this area gets snow, this is the kind of pattern we want. It hasn’t happened in decades, though. As far as I know 89 and 93 were the last occurrences where areas in SE GA and the body of north Florida east of the panhandle saw accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Image courtesy of Eric Webb. Based on his thinking the 3rd-4th storm looks identical to the last 2. Why wouldn't this one suffer the same fate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As far as I know 89 and 93 were the last occurrences where areas in SE GA and the body of north Florida east of the panhandle saw accumulating snow. Speaking of 1989. MY location had some cursory ZR/IP events light leading up to this event with a monster high with what brought down some record cold air into the country. In fact, the Christmas storm wasn't even picked up real well until the event basically developed. Everyone played catch up all day. Actually right now isn't quite far off from what happened in 1989. Has an eerily similar feel and almost identical possible cyclogenesis well offshore but close enough amd strong enough to hit coastal NE FL to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 we might catch a break... NAM 33hr has the NJS a little further north and the wave slightly south of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justabamajammer Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The moisture has at least been nedging a little more to the left today. Maybe it can continue for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Image courtesy of Eric Webb. Based on his thinking the 3rd-4th storm looks identical to the last 2. Why wouldn't this one suffer the same fate? If the low doesn't lift out then this is a moot point it will get harmlessly shunted out to sea like the other two threats. But, for the Jan 3-4 potential that low in NE Canada lifts out by day 4-5 and another h5 low pivots south actually helping the wave dig more. Still have 3-4 days before that first piece enters the conus and then we will need to see where the ridge axis sets up and how quickly the 2nd piece of energy can phase into it. Really looking at by day 4 we need the ingredients to be correct for this potential...so yeah event is still 6 days out but by 96 hours we should have good idea. Need things to start ticking in our favor...or really to start getting some more EPS buy in and GFS/UK/CMC to tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, justabamajammer said: The moisture has at least been nedging a little more to the left today. Maybe it can continue for 00z I really wouldn't count on it. Last two systems vanished. What makes this one different? Probably absolutely nothing. Cold air will be the big story for the Southeast. My interest is no longer on snow (because I most likely know it won't happen) but how cold it will get over the next week. That alone will be exciting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: If the low doesn't lift out then this is a moot point it will get harmlessly shunted out to sea like the other two threats. But, for the Jan 3-4 potential that low in NE Canada lifts out by day 4-5 and another h5 low pivots south actually helping the wave dig more. Still have 3-4 days before that first piece enters the conus and then we will need to see where the ridge axis sets up and how quickly the 2nd piece of energy can phase into it. Really looking at by day 4 we need the ingredients to be correct for this potential...so yeah event is still 6 days out but by 96 hours we should have good idea. Need things to start ticking in our favor...or really to start getting some more EPS buy in and GFS/UK/CMC to tick west. I believe we will see some ticks west tonight.... I think Euro holds its ground... not really sure how much more west it can come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 00z gfs at hr 60 has precip further north into Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hr 78 suppressed like 18z just a tick faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, goldman75 said: 00z gfs at hr 60 has precip further north into Louisiana Yeah it and NAM trended north with higher heights for the NYD system. Let’s see what it does with our main vort for this system on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Very subtle difference, but the trough is centered a tad westward on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hr 90 precip off Florida east coast fills in a little more toward Georgia coast, didn’t really move much closer, just not as patchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 At hour 90 the GFS has stronger PNA ridging building in. Will be interesting to see if this run can get it done... or come close at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: At hour 90 the GFS has stronger PNA ridging building in. Will be interesting to see if this run can get it done... or come close at least. Yeah even if it doesn’t get it done, at least trend in the right direction for now. I want to believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: At hour 90 the GFS has stronger PNA ridging building in. Will be interesting to see if this run can get it done... or come close at least. Should be close, based on ridge alone! Will be better than 18z ! Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Think this will be a cold run is anything. Taller PNA. ULL in the Pacific is really messing with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 CMC is a miss off the coast. No precip. Not close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Clearly see the differences between GFS/Euro...will one big difference. The GFS west coast ridge is blunted by a piece of energy crashing into it and the Op Euro had a sharper ridge allowing the 2nd piece of energy to dive almost due south. The GFS has it diving SE towards the lakes. Also, the h5 low over the NE doesn't lift out as quick this time so the energy just stays completely flat all the way to the gulf, should be off into the atlantic somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, griteater said: CMC is a miss off the coast. No precip. Not close I believe the gfs will be wide right also. Too much of a positive tilt at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 These were all really bad runs...UK too. Atleast it's a quick end to the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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