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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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  On 12/28/2017 at 10:36 PM, packbacker said:

Getting flashbacks on why I hated 2010 so much...Dec/Jan was well BN, we missed the blizzard to our west in Dec, we got the miller B sleet storm end of Jan and then we had to watch the MA get 300 inches of snow all while freezing our butts off for 3+ months.  Hopefully if Mother Nature has mercy on us we blow torch after mid Jan through spring.  

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Well, if nothing else, at least it will be interesting to see just how cold it can get. FFC has me with a high of 32 on Thursday. Let's see if we can muster together a couple days AOB freezing.

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  On 12/28/2017 at 10:48 PM, shahroz98 said:

The NWS for ATL is seeming pretty optimistic for what they normally say

Screenshot (2).png

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Honestly, I'm more interested in the cold now. Every system keeps falling apart on us, but one variable that is certain is the brutal cold coming. If the cold is gonna be so strong that is squashes all systems way south, then the cold damn well better be good.

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  On 12/28/2017 at 11:19 PM, Queencitywx said:

La Ninas are famous for threats suddenly showing up within 5 days. That’s how I think the next one will go. This isn’t an El Niño season where we track the same wave for 10 days and it’s there consistently.

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I think all of us here hope you are right about that.

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RAH's afternoon discussion(...nothing we don't already know):

Tuesday through Thursday: High confidence that the very cold weather
will continue through mid week. Expect highs in the 30s and lows in
the teens to low 20s to continue. Much lower confidence in the
precipitation forecast. The next potential weather maker will
develop over the Northern Rockies as an
upper level wave on Monday,
diving south through the Plains and eastward through the Midwest on
Tuesday. As seems to have been the case the past few weeks, the
models can`t seem to agree on how this system will evolve and what
the resulting weather over Central
NC will be. Even small variations
in the
amplitude and southern extent of the aforementioned wave
could result in very different weather forecast for the area. The EC
has been wetter over
NC but has been more consistent from run-to-
run. On the other hand, the
GFS has been drier, but has trended
toward the EC with the latest (12Z) run. The feature in question at
the surface is the low that develops over the Atlantic. How strong
it is and it`s proximity to the east coast of the US will determine
if/what weather we will see here. Again, the EC solution has the low
much closer to the
NC coast while the GFS is farther out over the
Atlantic. Given such large differences the precipitation forecast
for this period is low confidence and high uncertainty.
Have kept
the forecast dry, with precipitation chances below slight for now,
but would not be surprised to see an introduction of some wintry
precip in the southeast in the coming days if current trends
continue.

 

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  On 12/29/2017 at 1:23 AM, superjames1992 said:

The 18z GFS isn’t too far off of giving the FL panhandle and SE GA some snow.  I guess in the rare times this area gets snow, this is the kind of pattern we want.  It hasn’t happened in decades, though.

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As far as I know 89 and 93 were the last occurrences where areas in SE GA and the body of north Florida east of the panhandle saw accumulating snow. 

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  On 12/29/2017 at 1:47 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

As far as I know 89 and 93 were the last occurrences where areas in SE GA and the body of north Florida east of the panhandle saw accumulating snow. 

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Speaking of 1989.

MY location had some cursory ZR/IP events light leading up to this event with a monster high with what brought down some record cold air into the country. In fact, the Christmas storm wasn't even picked up real well until the event basically developed. Everyone played catch up all day. Actually right now isn't quite far off from what happened in 1989.   Has an eerily similar feel and almost identical possible cyclogenesis well offshore but close enough amd strong enough to hit coastal NE FL to NC

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  On 12/29/2017 at 2:06 AM, Waiting on snow said:

Image courtesy of Eric Webb. Based on his thinking the 3rd-4th storm looks identical to the last 2. Why wouldn't this one suffer the same fate?

Screenshot_20171228-210117.png

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If the low doesn't lift out then this is a moot point it will get harmlessly shunted out to sea like the other two threats.  But, for the Jan 3-4 potential that low in NE Canada lifts out by day 4-5 and another h5 low pivots south actually helping the wave dig more. 

Still have 3-4 days before that first piece enters the conus and then we will need to see where the ridge axis sets up and how quickly the 2nd piece of energy can phase into it.  Really looking at by day 4 we need the ingredients to be correct for this potential...so yeah event is still 6 days out but by 96 hours we should have good idea.  Need things to start ticking in our favor...or really to start getting some more EPS buy in and GFS/UK/CMC to tick west.

gem_z500_vort_namer_19.png

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  On 12/29/2017 at 2:16 AM, justabamajammer said:

The moisture has at least been nedging a little more to the left today. Maybe it can continue for 00z

o5iCfFy.gif?1

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I really wouldn't count on it. Last two systems vanished. What makes this one different? Probably absolutely nothing. Cold air will be the big story for the Southeast. My interest is no longer on snow (because I most likely know it won't happen) but how cold it will get over the next week. That alone will be exciting for me.

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  On 12/29/2017 at 2:40 AM, packbacker said:

If the low doesn't lift out then this is a moot point it will get harmlessly shunted out to sea like the other two threats.  But, for the Jan 3-4 potential that low in NE Canada lifts out by day 4-5 and another h5 low pivots south actually helping the wave dig more. 

Still have 3-4 days before that first piece enters the conus and then we will need to see where the ridge axis sets up and how quickly the 2nd piece of energy can phase into it.  Really looking at by day 4 we need the ingredients to be correct for this potential...so yeah event is still 6 days out but by 96 hours we should have good idea.  Need things to start ticking in our favor...or really to start getting some more EPS buy in and GFS/UK/CMC to tick west.

gem_z500_vort_namer_19.png

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I believe we will see some ticks west tonight.... I think Euro holds its ground... not really sure how much more west it can come.

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Clearly see the differences between GFS/Euro...will one big difference.  The GFS west coast ridge is blunted by a piece of energy crashing into it and the Op Euro had a sharper ridge allowing the 2nd piece of energy to dive almost due south.  The GFS has it diving SE towards the lakes.

Also, the h5 low over the NE doesn't lift out as quick this time so the energy just stays completely flat all the way to the gulf, should be off into the atlantic somewhere.

500hv.conus.png

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