rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: RGEM shifted east, almost a whiff in Raleigh. Time for bed. Sounds about right...I'll see ya in the "place to vent" thread tomorrow night...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I told you mid-week last week you were going to get 2 feet lol... you did, you did......this is the point where I expect to go to bed and wake up in the morning to see totals slashed and some major change has occurred and pulled the rug out from under our storm...honestly I am thrilled with 4-6" lol so if we get anywhere near the NAM type totals I will be stunned. That 3km run was darn near blizzard conditions here and for sure blizzard conditions over the IBX/OBX and Va Capes...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVA_SN Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: RGEM shifted east, almost a whiff in Raleigh. Time for bed. What site do you use for the RGEM? It's only out to hr 6 on tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At what point will the 3k Nam fold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If I can read the crude black and white maps for the 00z RGEM right, it looks pretty solid for the FL panhandle. Bad run for NC, though. Precip barely gets west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, SVA_SN said: What site do you use for the RGEM? It's only out to hr 6 on tropical tidbits. https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: If I can read the crude black and white maps for the RGEM right, it looks pretty solid for the FL panhandle. Bad run for NC, though. Precip barely gets west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Has LP further east looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM has no precip from ILM to MYR. 12km had similar mins there too. Something must be up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: Has LP further east looks like More east than the NAM but actually sw of the 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM doesnt look right to me with precip depiction. Looks like feedback issues but could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z RGEM is neg tilt around Appalachia Bay at 18hrs, similar to 18z at H5 +24, maybe a little bit more aggressive with energy entering the leading shortwave on the backside. At 24hrs the H5 look is much more volatile compared to 18z, 3 southern vorts trying to hook up but not there. 18z was more consolidated with the package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If we could just get the RGEM to shift the low track west over Cape Hatteras, then the back edge of the precip shield would go east by 25 miles, the way this storm is working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 To go back to what Brandon said, this thing has so much potential. I really hope it comes together at a low latitude, rather than being a strung out mess for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It looks better for DC area so its probably right lol.. But honestly it isa bit of a blend between the Euro and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Current analysis. Southern piece is digging pretty well. Pesky lakes low, I wish were not there. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 55 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: No way that precip cuts off that sharp to the west... With the low that close to the coast, I wont accept! lol You guys should go look back to past nor-easters that crushed the Northeast...typically when the low pressure is that deep, they have well defined snow shields that have a sharp cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Current analysis. Southern piece is digging pretty well. Pesky lakes low, I wish were not there. lol Western ridge looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, rduwx said: Sounds about right...I'll see ya in the "place to vent" thread tomorrow night...LOL! Never let a good run get your hopes up in raleigh. a lesson i will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: You guys should go look back to past nor-easters that crushed the Northeast...typically when the low pressure is that deep, they have well defined snow shields that have a sharp cutofsf. Yep, 20 miles from here... Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: At what point will the 3k Nam fold? At exactly the most disappointing time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: At exactly the most disappointing time 22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: At what point will the 3k Nam fold? When you deactivate your snow shield . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Come on guys. Don’t jump. Weirdness happens. It seems not necessarily over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Never let a good run get your hopes up in raleigh. a lesson i will never learn. Nor one bad run dissapoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is the 0z GFS and Euro worth their output this close in? We're talking a 30hr forecast now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: 0z RGEM is neg tilt around Appalachia Bay at 18hrs, similar to 18z at H5 +24, maybe a little bit more aggressive with energy entering the leading shortwave on the backside. At 24hrs the H5 look is much more volatile compared to 18z, 3 southern vorts trying to hook up but not there. 18z was more consolidated with the package. You can see that on the surface map...the 3km and RGEM both have dual lows at hour 12-15 but the RGEM consolidates to the eastern SLP and the 3km consolidates to the western SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Nor one bad run dissapoint true. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: You guys should go look back to past nor-easters that crushed the Northeast...typically when the low pressure is that deep, they have well defined snow shields that have a sharp cutoffs. Yep. Just like hurricanes that run up the coast. We see the cloud deck approaching the triad all day long but it never quite gets here. As the storm moves north the clouds vanish in a matter of minutes. This beast is gonna wind up nice and tight. Cant wait to see where the gradiant lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Per WV, the s/w over the dakotas is diving pretty far south and so is the wave over Texas. These waves have continued to trend in that direction for days. This is what is key to an earlier phase and higher heights/ridging in the atlantic. The ridging over western NA is impressive and I think the models could continue to play catch up w/ that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Good catch pack. Place ya bets folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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