packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3km tracks it just outside of HAT...the NAM's can't be a little stingy on the NW gradient so would think back to 85 would be good with that track. Would like to see the RGEm with this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Congrata NENC amd SEVA.. Hammered Blizzard warning norfolk/va beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 No way that precip cuts off that sharp to the west... With the low that close to the coast, I wont accept! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Guys.... this falls in 3 hours as snow.... Wind pushing 20knts+ this time frame as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm going to leave this right here. Some snow left to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: No way that precip cuts off that sharp to the west... With the low that close to the coast, I wont accept! lol check out the raging virga storm currently in AR/LA. It's coming to us next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If .3 falls tomorrow night in Wake county from 10pm-1am that stuff will be fluffy with high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 wow.. beautiful for you guys down east hope you get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's pretty clear this is trending towards a track along the gulf stream per the trends and the 3k NAM. That is BIG for the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 'downeastnc' you might need a yardstick buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I mean... Im just wondering how much further west that Low can get... Im already amazed its that far ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: It's pretty clear this is trending towards a track along the gulf stream per the trends and the 3k NAM. That is BIG for the triangle. If I didn't look at precip maps and just looked at the low placement etc I would've assumed the triangle got clobbered. I just don't see how that low in that position doesn't act like a firehose into central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HKY_WX said: It's pretty clear this is trending towards a track along the gulf stream per the trends and the 3k NAM. That is BIG for the triangle. yep brought this up the other day but i really didnt believe it actually would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Every time the NAM initializes it's deeper/better. then it's not 18-24 I'd just run that out for the next few runs versus taking it seriously beyond 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: 3km tracks it just outside of HAT...the NAM's can't be a little stingy on the NW gradient so would think back to 85 would be good with that track. Would like to see the RGEm with this track. Pack, do you think the NW shield is underdoing precip... NAM bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: No way that precip cuts off that sharp to the west... With the low that close to the coast, I wont accept! lol The Negative dewpoints the NAM 3km has just west of the precip is why it cuts off so sharply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: 'downeastnc' you might need a yardstick buddy! I got one......normally I would be like yeah NAM whatever go home your drunk.....but almost all models have the ridiculously strong SLP and well I am starting to wonder if those kind of totals are doable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Congrats Tidewater little lower amounts around the Triangle on the 3K NAM then the 18Z with a sharper cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: If I didn't look at precip maps and just looked at the low placement etc I would've assumed the triangle got clobbered. I just don't see how that low in that position doesn't act like a firehose into central NC Well it's showing 8 inches for RDU. That's a good thumping. But I agree, i'm thinking the NAM is a little too dramatic w/ that cutoff. I would layer it out a litlte more like the GFS. It's nerve racking to be honest. Just sit and think for a moment that a 960MB is sitting just east of HAT on the NAM tomorrow night. Unreal. If we can just pull our heads out of the models azz for a sec and think about that, it's pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hard to imagine the low will be 960mb and someone along the coast will not see 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Pack, do you think the NW shield is underdoing precip... NAM bias? I do...I don’t ever remember a stout coastal that didn’t get the deform band a little NW of where it’s modeled. This is one model...if the RGEM does this track then that would be more believable. The EPS has .1” to RDU, .2 to 95 and .3-.4 to PGV. Hard to discount that. But of course the EPS was 200 miles east of the 3km NAM with SLP track...maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Well it's showing 8 inches for RDU. That's a good thumping. But I agree, i'm thinking the NAM is a little too dramatic w/ that cutoff. I would layer it out a litlte more like the GFS. It's nerve racking to be honest. Just sit and think for a moment that a 960MB is sitting just east of HAT on the NAM tomorrow night. Unreal. If we can just pull our heads out of the models azz for a sec and think about that, it's pretty crazy. Yeah it's truly amazing. The radar presentation tomorrow should be insane. I can't wait to nowcast this sucker because this will be changing until hour zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I got one......normally I would be like yeah NAM whatever go home your drunk.....but almost all models have the ridiculously strong SLP and well I am starting to wonder if those kind of totals are doable.... I told you mid-week last week you were going to get 2 feet lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I mean... Im just wondering how much further west that Low can get... Im already amazed its that far ... Hopefully enough to get the entire state into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM shifted east, almost a whiff in Raleigh. Time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: RGEM shifted east, almost a whiff in Raleigh. Time for bed. Night night, don't let the GFS bite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: I do...I don’t ever remember a stout coastal that didn’t get the deform band a little NW of where it’s modeled. This is one model...if the RGEM does this track then that would be more believable. The EPS has .1” to RDU, .2 to 95 and .3-.4 to PGV. Hard to discount that. But of course the EPS was 200 miles east of the 3km NAM with SLP track...maybe more. As someone mentioned earlier, there is a massive virga storm going on in AR/LA right now. The air west of RAH is going to be super dry with TDs in the single digits to even below 0 the further west you get. I think the radar will tell one story WRT the western extent of the precip shield, but ground obs will tell another tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: RGEM shifted east, almost a whiff in Raleigh. Time for bed. Thats not good news!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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