BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: rgem looks to have come in a small bit west with precip. looks like another 30 miles NW. just need one more of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Tired of these runs that shift a stronger SLP closer to the coast and cut back on QPF. This should have been better QPF on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM is literally only 50 miles or so off the perfect snow track for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, goldman75 said: Can I officially buy in now in horry county? Myrtle beach to be exact. I’m trying to hold back because we are famous to just get sleet at the last minute but that 3k nam has close to 3 inches on the beach and those of us a tad inland on line of 4-5+ inches. 3k nam is pretty accurate for the most part inside 24 hours right? I am willing to bet a large sum of Bitcoin that the warmnose gets Horry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 WeatherTAP @weatherTAP 31m31 minutes ago Even the Outer Banks of North Carolina are now under winter storm warnings.MHX quicker to go to Warning from a Watch than AKQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, goldman75 said: Can I officially buy in now in horry county? Myrtle beach to be exact. I’m trying to hold back because we are famous to just get sleet at the last minute but that 3k nam has close to 3 inches on the beach and those of us a tad inland on line of 4-5+ inches. 3k nam is pretty accurate for the most part inside 24 hours right? I say MB is in a great spot. You are actually further west than spots in coastal.NC. which means a lesser chance of a warm nose. Just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Tired of these runs that shift a stronger SLP closer to the coast and cut back on QPF. This should have been better QPF on the RGEM. It may come down to which model is best handling how the dry air is going to impact the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RGEM is literally only 50 miles or so off the perfect snow track for RDU. 2 questions How reliable is the RGEM at this range? Can we make up 50miles in 18hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CHS NOT brining roads! Said it's too cold and would just make it worse! Mike Bettes is live reporting already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here's the March 1980 write-up from MHX.http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RGEM is literally only 50 miles or so off the perfect snow track for RDU. Why are we not seeing QPF amounts go up in relation to the NW shift of the LP track? That just doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RGEM is literally only 50 miles or so off the perfect snow track for RDU. Never easy...the only thing keeping this from being bigger is the SLP is trucking. Keep thinking that pretty much any coastal I remember the deform band is always slightly NW of where it's modeled. But that's weeniecasting at it's best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah it was nothing to special it just hung out for a day and a half......be nice to get this one to stick around 6-12 extra hrs.... Being that you live pretty close to me what do you think thabout chances are of this being mostly sleet or freezing rain in Washington. I know now that the models are showing that we are going to get the precip we need but that isn’t the whole story. I’ve seen it happen before but I have limited knowledge when it comes down to this sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah it was nothing to special it just hung out for a day and a half......be nice to get this one to stick around 6-12 extra hrs.... Being that you live pretty close to me what do you think thabout chances are of this being mostly sleet or freezing rain in Washington. I know now that the models are showing that we are going to get the precip we need but that isn’t the whole story. I’ve seen it happen before but I have limited knowledge when it comes down to this sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 gfs shifts precip west thru 33, similar to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CHS NOT brining roads! Said it's too cold and would just make it worse! Mike Bettes is live reporting already! That is just dumb. Brine usually fails in temps below 20 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's interesting seeing the circular motion of the higher QPF totals...that's going to be a tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: gfs shifts precip west thru 33, similar to euro Big shift inland with the QPF...looks solid back to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 gfs playing catch up with the qpf. keep in mind this is only thru 30, qpf to come for rdu 00z last night: 18z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CHS NOT brining roads! Said it's too cold and would just make it worse! Mike Bettes is live reporting already! Can hardly wait to hear about all the bridge problems tomorrow. Charleston is not familiar with dealing with these P-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Triple SLP on the GFS. I like the one low closest to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs playing catch up with the qpf. 00z last night: 18z today: That heavy band in the Atlantic, is MUCH closer to being on shore! Big West shift on 18z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs playing catch up with the qpf. keep in mind this is only thru 30, qpf to come for rdu 00z last night: 18z today: Wow! Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Love seeing the shifts. However NWS said the shifts of the gfs and euro are only outliers and they aren’t bothering. The also aren’t concerned with the NAM. Hmph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Regan said: Love seeing the shifts. However NWS said the shifts of the gfs and euro are only outliers and they aren’t bothering. The also aren’t concerned with the NAM. Hmph. Listen, I trust them, they’re pros, but how is that an outlier when each run pulls farther west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12km NAM whiffs and now this, running out of time for anymore big shifts though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RAH knows the NAM is lurking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: 12km NAM whiffs and now this, running out of time for anymore big shifts though... we have been screwed plenty of times within 24hrs of a storm and with the lp forecasted to deepen so much offshore there are likely still a few wrinkles left in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS finally on board with other models, pretty much all models give me 6-10" now.....starting to feel this is actually a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NWS RAH isn't going to budge yet. They just issued their newest briefing 11 minutes ago and said they are still going 95 east. Probably waiting on 00Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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