packfan98 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Such huge jumps for all of the global models with the 12z suite with the low placement. All of them shifted over 100 miles I think. Too bad the precip shield only shifted about half of that, for now. We need to put more faith in the NAM and RGEM maybe? Here's the Euro comparison from DT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Naw it' fine were it is .....really though it should be pummeling most of the central and eastern part of NC with the low there. you would think so w/ a Cat 4 SLp sitting off the coast. I just want insurance. I never underestimate Raleigh's ability to screw up a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I love how snow seems to surround us in the SE tip of NC. Even far south parts of the SE coast get more snow. To this day it is still weird to me why that is the case. It tends to happen with every storm no matter what angle it takes. Models seem to be shifting west some, so I fully expect to see cold rain before all is said and done. NWS keeps talking about snow here, however, the safe bet is to always call for cold/freezing rain here. They should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: you would think so w/ a Cat 4 SLp sitting off the coast. I just want insurance. I never underestimate Raleigh's ability to screw up a good storm. It will come around, if we end up getting something like Jan 2000 here then you guys will end up 3-5" at least, especially the eastern side of the Triangle.....how many times have we seen the NW precip shield come in stronger than modeled as the storm moves up the east coast, its like every single one of them......though the west gradient is gonna be brutal as hell...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yeah the global models coming west is simply them getting in line with High res. Watch the high res models instead of global. The high res ones are the models you want to come west. Here is the 3km nam for the past 4 runs. Notice how the SLP doesn't rly move much east or west in a trend it just wobbles and just slows down? There isn't a really big west trend with the surface low pressure BUT there is a trend for more precip inland. I don't expect the SLP to trend much more. 3KM is pretty rock steady BUT you guys should look for more expansive precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Vort #1 appears to be spinning it's way SE in western Kansas as we speak, per the WV. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We need that precip to come a another good 45 miles inland before I begin to feel excited in these part...ugg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Our vort appears to be spinning it's way SE in western Kansas as we speak, per the WV. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us TY for that since i spotted that very thing yesterday as it moved into montana and noted here something was dropping south into wyoming......this isnt very close to what any model called for from the things i have read here and elsewhere....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Vort #1 appears to be spinning it's way SE in western Kansas as we speak, per the WV. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Waay west of any modeling the last few days, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Waay west of any modeling the last few days, correct? No, it's right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Such huge jumps for all of the global models with the 12z suite with the low placement. All of them shifted over 100 miles I think. Too bad the precip shield only shifted about half of that, for now. We need to put more faith in the NAM and RGEM maybe? Here's the Euro comparison from DT: That is a huge difference in just 12 hours. If we get just half of that over the next 12 hours, that will make a very big difference as to the effects here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Waay west of any modeling the last few days, correct? nope exactly where it should be per nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That is a huge difference in just 12 hours. If we get just half of that over the next 12 hours, that will make a very big difference as to the effects here. All you're seeing is the globals correcting to what the high-res models have shown all along. I expect very little shifts going forward now that they are in agreement with the meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Savannah-Chatham schools have closed for tomorrow. So the winter threat is spreading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, snowlover91 said: All you're seeing is the globals correcting to what the high-res models have shown all along. I expect very little shifts going forward now that they are in agreement with the meso models. agreed. Now if meso models come west its a different story. But so far not so lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 SREF mean down to less than 2 for RDU, probably means NAM is moving a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, snowlover91 said: All you're seeing is the globals correcting to what the high-res models have shown all along. I expect very little shifts going forward now that they are in agreement with the meso models. That's a good point. It's a pretty volatile setup, where even a few small changes (convection, small changes in the speed of shortwaves, etc.) could still have a pretty decent affect on where the SLP forms. So, we could still see even the mesos change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: SREF mean down to less than 2 for RDU, probably means NAM is moving a bit Gotta remembrer that RDU is way west. Zoom in on the map and click the blue dot in eastern wake.. the mean is closer to 4 inches. Wake is going to be a huge gradient (as it stands right now) Time for the eastern part of the county to cash in for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here's the 850mb low per the NAM. Extremely stout and there will be an intense band of heavy snow about 100 to 250 miles west of the 850mb low. That would put the band around Greenville NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's a good point. It's a pretty volatile setup, where even a few small changes (convection, small changes in the speed of shortwaves, etc.) could still have a pretty decent affect on where the SLP forms. So, we could still see even the mesos change a bit. It's certainly possible but the meso models have been in a tight gradient with their tracks. I could see small 10-20 mile shifts but not the big 100+ mile jumps we saw in the globals. This looks to ride the natural baroclinic zone along the Gulf Stream waters and I think the SLP track is pretty much locked in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, the HRRR has been trending east with most features over the past couple hours. Below is the 16z run at 18 hours, vs. the 18z run at 16 hours. You can see the surface low is a good bit east and the precip band is now scraping Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Waay west of any modeling the last few days, correct? I believe it is according to what model you were using. It did show this coming in around Ark. At one point yesterday or Sunday . Days are running together ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Winter Storm Warning just posted for Tallahassee! SNOWMG!!! Sorry for the weenie, but this could legitimately be a historic storm in these parts not seen in decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 46 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Let’s be generous and put you in .4, which would probably get me into two tenths. Seriously. If we keep seeing this thing move west, it’s possible. Whats up Jeremy! It will be interesting to follow the Hi-Res/Short Term Models tonight/tomorrow, as well as the radar. Hoping we can sneak in on some of the action. Hope all is well and you all had a Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Here's the 850mb low per the NAM. Extremely stout and there will be an intense band of heavy snow about 100 to 250 miles west of the 850mb low. That would put the band around Greenville NC. Right....and another 50 mile shift west, albeit unlikely as the global and hi-res models are coming to a truce, would still only skirt RDU and maybe toss a flurry west of there. So for the vast many here, this is looking more and more like a non-event. It's a coastal folks, we just need to accept it and say congrats to dozens of posters who don't have a dog in many of our fights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The HRRR is only good inside about 10 hours, outside of that it's prone to wild shifts and even then it isn't great. I wouldn't recommend using it for this storm, the 3km NAM and RGEM will do a much better job IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 seeing some radar action in arkansas was this shown on any model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here's a good look at the RGEM ensembles track. Pretty tight cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 47 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: we are seeing less QPF to the NW and W because the modeling is expecting us to have a lot of virga due to the current airmass? Just a theory I would think so Jeremy. I know that we had INSANE DP's for that one storm that BUSTED back in the early 2000's. I cannot remember the exact date, but they had us under a Winter Storm Warning in CLT and surrounding areas for 6"-12" of snow. We ended up with ZIP - DE NADA. I remember Greenville, SC getting around 6"-8" while we were partly cloudy. Remember that one. Anyways, the Dry Air is a KILLER, so I hope we can get some luck on our side and have a ULL form or something to push some precip into our areas of the Piedmont. Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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