wx4life Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Regan said: Havent checked in on Brad P. is he saying everyone is stupid? He usually does when he thinks it’s bs. He hasn't said too much other than the WSW for the coastal sections. He doesn't expect much if anything for his forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 UKMET total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1530 for the Euro Ensembles or a different time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, tramadoc said: 1530 for the Euro Ensembles or a different time? roundabout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 3K NAM has 3"totals as close to Charlotte as Midland and 1" totals as close as Kannapolis and Concord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 roundabout. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It won't let me copy and paste the WPC model discussion but interesting read. they are putting the least amount on the 12Z NAM but not discounting it completely. but they are also sayiing that the model's may continue to trend further West for the next couple of runs. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7" totals as close to the city as Chesterfield. That is 55 miles SE as the crow flies. Statistically speaking, a 50 mile model shift is practically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro coming in slightly more amped at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Light precip back to Columbia at hr30 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NW shift with the sfc low on the Euro, and stronger...QPF more inland, but not a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 16z HRRR may be on to something at the end of it's run blowing up convection in Northern Florida. None of the Global models have this feature: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, jjwxman said: The 16z HRRR may be on to something at the end of it's run blowing up convection in Northern Florida. None of the Global models have this feature: How does the HRR verify, particularly at the end of its range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The 3K NAM has 3"totals as close to Charlotte as Midland and 1" totals as close as Kannapolis and Concord. As cold as it has been an inch of snow would cause a lot of travel issues. Anything that falls this far west will stick instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the HRRR tends to generally be a little amp-happy towards the end of its run. Nevertheless, that's a major winter storm it's showing for the FL panhandle and the models do tend to be trending in that direction, so maybe it should be heeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the HRRR tends to generally be a little amp-happy towards the end of its run. I tend to like the NAM 3km a little better than the HRRR with close range precip/temp placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 what in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 HRRR has a tendency to overdo things outside 18 hours. It’s much better under 10 hours out for banding features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This has a solid chance of overperforming - especially after how December was handled, I wouldn’t expect the NWS/TV mets to predict 6”+ of anything until 4” are already on the ground and heavy flakes are flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, CoolBreeze said: From the brightness indicated in the last frame, does this imply the secondary may form close to the SC/NC border? At the least, it shows a model trend toward increasing dynamics over E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: what in the world Looks like that would throw a huge deform band over central NC but that run keeps the deep precip nearer to the coast. Hope the precip amounts will go up further West closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 a definite shift west with precip on the euro compared to 00z. 00z had snow right into florence county in sc and 12z has it stretching well into chesterfield county. a few more shifts west like that and clt will have a shot at some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 New EURO gets snow almost to Augusta much further west than last run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Precipitation fields moving west a little, but overall the LP hasn't really moved west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The Euro is WAY west compared to the 00z and much stronger. Looks like the Euro wants what the HiRes models have been smoking the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12Z Euro actually putting some decent snow into the southern Midlands of SC especially along the US 301 corridor. After watching in the background all week, have enjoyed the great discussion as always guys and gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: a definite shift west with precip on the euro compared to 00z. 00z had snow right into florence county in sc and 12z has it stretching well into chesterfield county. a few more shifts west like that and clt will have a shot at some snow. Look at the 3K NAM. We aren’t too far out of the ballgame. I still doubt it happens but it’s enough to keep me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro definitely west of 0z, SLP is almost where 3km has it at 42 hours. 1” snow almost get to Wake Co. 95 and east is 2” with 5” in PGV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Last 2 runs of the Euro (Kuchera Snow)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro definitely west of 0z, SLP is almost where 3km has it at 42 hours. 1” snow almost get to Wake Co. 95 and east is 2” with 5” in PGV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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