Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:13 PM, Queencitywx said: Take your metric system like a big boy. I think 27MM=1in Expand Ha nice. Then I'm probably not calculating it right. It's like a 6hr average in mm. So I don't know. The first panel had .1 units, the next frame had .25 units, and the third frame had .1 units, whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:13 PM, Queencitywx said: Take your metric system like a big boy. I think 27MM=1in25.5mm is an inch. I had to learn metric system for work. Everything is in ml, mcg, grams, and mEq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Good lord, the later panels on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:59 PM, beanskip said: Can't remember from my more-engaged winter tracking days the reliability of the HRRR, but we are coming into its range. Shows a much more western extent of precip than even the hi-res short-term models with snow breaking out as far west as Panama City at 9z tomorrow. Expand Do you think we come close this event? http://www.weather.gov/ilm/christmassnow1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Based on everything I've seen on here, this feels a little conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:17 PM, Cold Rain said: Ha nice. Then I'm probably not calculating it right. It's like a 6hr average in mm. So I don't know. The first panel had .1 units, the next frame had .25 units, and the third frame had .1 units, whatever that means. Expand 25.4 = 1" to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:18 PM, Queencitywx said: Good lord, the later panels on the UKMET. Expand What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:23 PM, frazdaddy said: 26.2 = 1" to be exact Expand Good deal! Any idea how much the Navgem is actually showing? Like, not that it matters in the least, but it gives us something to do between server crashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I can’t imagine the mossy oaks in the FL panhandle will fare well in an ice storm. Hard to believe some of the model output I’m seeing for this area. Wish I was further east, but things are looking mighty interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:23 PM, frazdaddy said: 25.4 = 1" to be exactWell, just a shade under but close enough for government work. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 IR cloud trend on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:27 PM, tramadoc said: On 1/2/2018 at 5:23 PM, frazdaddy said: 25.4 = 1" to be exact Expand Well, just a shade under but close enough for government work. LOL Expand yeah, lol me too on the metrics for work. I saw your post and realized I was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:23 PM, Tar Heel Snow said: Based on everything I've seen on here, this feels a little conservative. Expand They always go very conservative. Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:32 PM, PackGrad05 said: They always go very conservative. Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right. Expand He's going to wait on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:32 PM, PackGrad05 said: They always go very conservative. Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right. Expand Absolutely. I respect them over the others for sure, but I'm hoping this is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:29 PM, griteater said: IR cloud trend on the GFS Expand From the brightness indicated in the last frame, does this imply the secondary may form close to the SC/NC border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:32 PM, PackGrad05 said: They always go very conservative. Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right. Expand He was very skeptical of the Jan 2000 storm too and kept having to up the totals more and more till it was we don't know how much it's gonna be. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:33 PM, frazdaddy said: He's going to wait on the euro. Expand You always know they're not sure when they're not going into a whole lot of detail. Usually as they get more certain they explain what they're looking at that shows whatever they're forecasting. Greg has some weenie in him, he'll explain the letdown if/when it comes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Havent checked in on Brad P. is he saying everyone is stupid? He usually does when he thinks it’s bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamant Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:34 PM, Steven_1974 said: He was very skeptical of the Jan 2000 storm too and kept having to up the totals more and more till it was we don't know how much it's gonna be. It is what it is. Expand I went to bed after seeing him say "trace to an inch for us here in Raleigh" - 20 inches later well it was all history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:23 PM, Tar Heel Snow said: Based on everything I've seen on here, this feels a little conservative. Expand That's a great forecast for what we know at this point. They can always ramp up later today or tomorrow, but would not want to put out higher amounts and cause panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:35 PM, Tar Heel Snow said: You always know they're not sure when they're not going into a whole lot of detail. Usually as they get more certain they explain what they're looking at that shows whatever they're forecasting. Expand Especially this dang close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:35 PM, Tar Heel Snow said: You always know they're not sure when they're not going into a whole lot of detail. Usually as they get more certain they explain what they're looking at that shows whatever they're forecasting. Expand You won't find a met that's more of an expert on NC weather than GF. He is a big fan of the EURO for good reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:37 PM, FallsLake said: That's a great forecast for what we know at this point. They can always ramp up later today or tomorrow, but would not want to put out higher amounts and cause panic. Expand I was reading a piece yesterday on their website from about 8 Years ago and he was reflecting on Jan 2000. “I’d rather be right than first.” I respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:30 PM, frazdaddy said: yeah, lol me too on the metrics for work. I saw your post and realized I was wrongIt's better than the GFS right? You are closer than that thing ever is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:51 PM, beanskip said: How about 24/36 hours maps for Florida/Ga.? Expand I hope you get HAMMERED with a hefty Snow Beanskip! Great to see you posting man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:41 PM, Tar Heel Snow said: I was reading a piece yesterday on their website from about 8 Years ago and he was reflecting on Jan 2000. “I’d rather be right than first.” I respect that. Expand He usually is and will show the math to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Is it just me or has old Dave been hitting the Bailey's this morning? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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