Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We've become really reliant on model data to tell us what to forecast. I don't know whether that's a bad thing or not. But for public consumption, you rarely have a met step out against model consensus and issue a forecast. Webb has been consistently arguing for a farther westward system, in terms of it's precipitation output, based on meteorological rationale and historical pattern recognition. In all honesty, it could go in several different directions, but he's expecting the models to correct to his thinking. I don't disagree with him. I just always feel better when the guidance starts to show it. It's great that we've seen some of the globals move west today, rather than the mesoscales cave the other way. We're on the edge of a knife here. Any small shift in the track of this thing and it's completely different. One way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Well, the NAM does, but I agree. That's a long shot. That is a reach but he knows winter storms for Raleigh. But yeah, that would need the NAM’s to shift west. That would be an epic modeling bust for the Euro/EPS too. This isn’t just shifting qpf 50 miles on the GFS/Euro, this is like 200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: No they haven't. Just look at the GFS changes I posted above for GA, HUGE increase and big differences for them. CMC just came in much snowier for a lot of us. High res models > Globals inside 48 hours. Yeah, GFS went from showing nothing, to significant ice storm for SE GA, followed by an inch or two of snow. Also models trended colder to across SE GA. Most were showing a changeover to rain. Say the NAM/EURO/RGEM have the best handle on this. EURO had actually consistently had some type of wintry precipitation for SE GA every run for the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: That is a reach but he knows winter storms for Raleigh. But yeah, that would need the NAM’s to shift west. That would be an epic modeling bust for the Euro/EPS too. This isn’t just shifting qpf 50 miles on the GFS/Euro, this is like 200 miles. Not trying to discredit or bash or say it won't happen but I've known of eric for a long time and he has always loved to throw the weenies a bone, but way back during sandy he nailed the models showing a far east solution and hammered on about them coming west based on h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: Not trying to discredit or bash or say it won't happen but I've known of eric for a long time and he has always loved to throw the weenies a bone, but way back during sandy he nailed the models showing a far east solution and hammered on about them coming west based on h5 He’s obviously very smart and doubt he is doing this to be a hero. I hope he is correct...even half correct would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We've become really reliant on model data to tell us what to forecast. I don't know whether that's a bad thing or not. But for public consumption, you rarely have a met step out against model consensus and issue a forecast. Webb has been consistently arguing for a farther westward system, in terms of it's precipitation output, based on meteorological rationale and historical pattern recognition. In all honesty, it could go in several different directions, but he's expecting the models to correct to his thinking. I don't disagree with him. I just always feel better when the guidance starts to show it. It's great that we've seen some of the globals move west today, rather than the mesoscales cave the other way. We're on the edge of a knife here. I don't disagree with anything you said. Just a fascinating situation with the globals vs meso models literally giving us conflicting information. This is where forecasters will earn their money - and their reputations. It will also hopefully be a reminder to us hobbyists and laymen as to why we need forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So far, if we're keeping score, we have to give some credit to the mesos...the globals have shifted somewhat in their direction. The truth is probably in the middle, but it's good to see them making a move, even if it's small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Posted from Daniel Huffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 New UK is a bomb, 978 off Hatteras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: For the triangle folks, we need to the SLP to get to roughly the HAT point. That's kind of the benchmark if you want a major/historic storm. As of now, I am seeing this as a Jan2000 storm shifted east about 75 miles. That would put Greenville/Elizabeth City/Tidewater area as the major winners(12+) at this point in time w/ Raleigh in the 1-3 range. But keep in mind the last minute shifts we often see in the models, degree of strength/convection firing offshore on this one (Could influence downstream ridging via latent heat release) and the gulf stream. These mesoscale features can easily throw off a SLP 50 or 100 miles. This is what causes surprise snowstorms. Also, one of the most important things is often the 500 and 300mb patterns, which all look classic to me for the Triangle. Surface features are often the last feature to correct on the mods. Best of luck to everyone on this one, as it's going to crush some board members hearts. Yeah I doubt we see Jan 2000 type totals but 12-15" lollipops inside a general 8-12" between I 95 and Hwy 17 and north of I 40 seems plausible at this point, though I really am trying to keep my expectations realistic...that said I am thinking we have a real decent chance at getting at least 5-8" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 New UK precip maps look to have doubled for I-95 and east, maybe more... Looks like 1" or more for areas from Greenville up to VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: New UK precip maps look to have doubled for I-95 and east, maybe more... Looks like 1" or more for areas from Greenville up to VA Beach. How about 24/36 hours maps for Florida/Ga.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Any measurable snowfall in the Triangle/RDU area is going to be a travel nightmare on the roads due to the very low overnight temperatures. Anything melting during the day will be black ice overnight and into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: How about 24/36 hours maps for Florida/Ga.? It looks a little beefier in those areas too, here's the link for those interested. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 def came west. models all trending in the right direction today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Can't remember from my more-engaged winter tracking days the reliability of the HRRR, but we are coming into its range. Shows a much more western extent of precip than even the hi-res short-term models with snow breaking out as far west as Panama City at 9z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Can't remember from my more-engaged winter tracking days the reliability of the HRRR, but we are coming into its range. Shows a much more western extent of precip than even the hi-res short-term models with snow breaking out as far west as Panama City at 9z tomorrow. Hey man, I'm pulling for you! It's pretty insane how deep this second cold shot is going to push into the peninsula. 30s down to Palm Beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Navgem really trying to extend the event as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think we can now agree that the mesoscale models have definitely outperformed the globals as things have trended towards a LP closer to the coast and more precip inland. A blend of the NAM and RGEM should yield close to what we see transpire, especially the 00z runs tonight they should have things about nailed down... also kudos to the NAVGEM as it has been the one global that has consistently shown the LP near the coast and qpf well inland to RDU or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Guys I gotta tell you. I am uber excited to see what the radar looks like as we get closer. I really feel like the models are underestimating the qpf with this bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I guess Tolleris is avoiding the whole storm discussion, ie totals and places of impact. My thought is if it doesn't affect Richmond or DC north, he's not too worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The school closings are beginning here in the Charleston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Water temps in the Charleston area are cooler than I can recall. 47 degree water temperatures in the ocean. Still much warmer than the air temperature, but usually lower 50s is the lowest we get to during the year. That could be a difference in if we get more sleet or snow in the Lowcountry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Best I can tell is that the Navgem drops somewhere around 30mm over the US 1 corridor. I hate precip in millimeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 JMA looks like a bomb...no idea on precip, though. Probably meager, like the other globals. How about the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Best I can tell is that the Navgem drops somewhere around 30mm over the US 1 corridor. I hate precip in millimeters. Take your metric system like a big boy. I think 27MM=1in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: JMA looks like a bomb...no idea on precip, though. Probably meager, like the other globals. How about the ICON? Actually, the JMA is ok: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: JMA looks like a bomb...no idea on precip, though. Probably meager, like the other globals. How about the ICON? JMA has a ton of qpf, similar to the Euro but further west. German model is similar to the UK but RDU and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Best I can tell is that the Navgem drops somewhere around 30mm over the US 1 corridor. I hate precip in millimeters.Just under 1.2". A mm is .03937 inches. Easier to remember that a cm in .3937 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: JMA looks like a bomb...no idea on precip, though. Probably meager, like the other globals. How about the ICON? looks euroish, which makes sense because it's so closely related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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