Jet Stream Rider Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Regarding the lack of copious moisture; we all know how dry this cold air mass is, and it has been moving out over the ocean for days now as well. So there is not as much available moisture on the ocean surface for the slp to work with. This is my hypothesis, Mets or others please correct me if I am wrong about it. Looking at other sources of moisture, perhaps some large scale transport from the tropics could help if available. Looking at current water vapor to see if it could be identified. Anybody got a good link for the hemispheric water vapor loop? Here is the continental US, you can see our upper level energy players on the field http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wow, it’s funny that here in Florence, SC we’re always right on the eastern edge of any typical winter weather systems, now we’ve got a system off the coast and we’re stuck right on the western edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: The NAM on the SC/NC coast was like .7" of freezing rain.... Throw in some of this wind and it could be a big power mess up and down the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 A blend of the 12 and 3 K Nams gives a average of 6-10" for the I95 to Hwy 17 corridor...hopefully the RGEM also has its higher totals....still would like the see the globals get in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here are the last 5 runs of the 3k Nam, starting at 12z yesterday. Obviously, 18z stands out (with 0z close behind) as the best run for the Piedmont areas. The last two runs look similar, with some slight adjustment left and slightly higher totals on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Yay! Said no one ever. Hope NAM is on crack. Would rather have nothing than that. I don't want NO ICE-ICE baby.. All fuffy snow, best Storm setup I've seen for Wilm in ages.. 9-12 inches for ILM? WooT! Says the 3K Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So far the RGEM is coming in more amped and closer to neutral with the southern vort by hour 18, looks very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM could be huge here. West... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM is looking West through 27, more precip in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM has 6” to 95, 4” to ColdRain but 0 in far west Wake Co. LOL Tighter gradient then 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It did end up east compared to 6Z, may be honing in on the best area now. Lots of ZR on the coast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So, 4 1/2 years ago I moved from N.C. to Ft. Walton Beach. That next winter I started honking about an ice storm there and they all thought I was crazy. Now I'm in Tallahassee and I'm honking about a historic winter storm and they all think I'm crazy. Maybe if I move to Miami I can singlehandedly cure us of global warming? RGEM/NAM show a once in a century winter event for Tallahassee -- .2-.5 of QPF -- all frozen. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: RGEM has 6” to 95, 4” to ColdRain but 0 in far west Wake Co. LOL Tighter gradient then 6z. Looks like that secondary low never got going closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 New RGEM snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It is so funny these last few years how the dividing line sets up right through Wake Co. East, west, north, south, it doesn't matter It's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: New RGEM snowmap Strange, because by hour 39 it looks like the primary low is about at the same location as 6z. I think this is just s difference in where the precip bands setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We should do a contest on who ends up with the most snow out of this storm.. its a tough one with such drastically different solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It is so funny these last few years how the dividing line sets up right through Wake Co. East, west, north, south, it doesn't matter It's crazy. Yep for east and west based storms, Wake tends to be the battle ground. I may be watching you get a few inches while I see flurries or nothing. Pay back time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanehic Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I know piedmont wants to see more movement west but keep in mind the more it moves the higher the winds for those of us living on the water! As it stands in Wilmington, Home Depot and Lowes are sold out of space heaters. If we get more Freezing rain to start followed by heavy snow(for us over 3-4inches) and strong winds could be a recipe for major power outages in freezing cold Thursday and Friday. Hoping everyone sees mainly white flakes but growing concerned about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, SENC said: I don't want NO ICE-ICE baby.. All fuffy snow, best Storm setup I've seen for Wilm in ages.. 9-12 inches for ILM? WooT! Says the 3K Nam That is mostly ice on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ^^^ This is WHY I have a generator.. (sry OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 gfs shifted higher qpf closer to the coast but westward extent stayed the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Through hour 18 the GFS is closer to neutral with the lead wave and closer with the second wave, might be a touch more phasing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Notice how much the GFS has shifted the precip shield NW over the past few runs. Expect it to do the same in NC as we get a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The Nemesis for western areas will be the dry air. Light precip will not be enough to moisten up the airmass. We'll need some nice banding to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 yea def more phasing and interaction this run but qpf just isn't budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Kinda nervous about the amount of ice the 3km Nam is spitting out for the Jacksonville area before we change over to a heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS is such a letdown...H5 low shifted west again and nothing. Hard to ignore that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So best answer please, how long will the nws and tv mets hug the euro until the cannot any longer? Do they take the chance of being weenies or do they wait to literal last minute. Don’t envy them at all. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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