ragtop50 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The strength on the 12Z NAM looks more believable at 970+ vs the 950+ it was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12k thru 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ It cut off out there in the Atlantic. First time I've seen that. 3K ought to be fun. That was the 6z run...the 12z was weaker, for whatever reason. The track on the 12z was better, but the h5 low was weaker. Why QPF was down I guess. Still, will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: The NAM's composite radar is not translating to the surface for many on the western side. Looks like a raging virga storm. Yeah I was thinking it would be better this run, but still hardly anything but virga... maybe the air is to dry in our neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3km is ready to drop a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This may turn out to be one of the best H5 snowstorms we've ever had, while we watch a few flakes struggle to make it to the surface. Looks good for the I-95 corridor so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3k NAM coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sharp western edge is due to the dry air in place, the lack of overrunning GOM action beforehand to moisten the atmosphere, and the dynamically driven nature of the banding around a bombing SLP. There will a sharp cutoff somewhere in NC which will leave much weeping and gnashing of teeth on this board. One of these days you guys will trust uncle HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3k nam 00z vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: This may turn out to be one of the best H5 snowstorms we've ever had, while we watch a few flakes struggle to make it to the surface. Looks good for the I-95 corridor so far. It is interesting that meaningful precip is not making it inland....similar to the globals. Thought based on that, PGV would be well over 1"QPF and they are right on the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 3k NAM coming in hot It's a beautiful radar presentation, but the model is not showing much of any qpf west of RDU. Edit: the 3K gets measurable precip back to parts of the Triad...the cut off is right around Greensboro proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: That was the 6z run...the 12z was weaker, for whatever reason. The track on the 12z was better, but the h5 low was weaker. Why QPF was down I guess. Still, will take it. Yeah, I realized after I posted, I was looking at the 6z map on the bottom. Still, a minor change. Hopefully, the low position translates closer to the coast in future runs. I still remain surprised at the lack of modeled QPF inland. But, .2 should be good for about 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poimen said: The NAM's composite radar is not translating to the surface for many on the western side. Looks like a raging virga storm. That's never how it works though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poimen said: The NAM's composite radar is not translating to the surface for many on the western side. Looks like a raging virga storm. There’s so much dry air that it can’t be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Western edge has dew points around 0.... until the precip hits then it moistens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I realized after I posted, I was looking at the 6z map on the bottom. Still, a minor change. Hopefully, the low position translates closer to the coast in future runs. I still remain surprised at the lack of modeled QPF inland. But, .2 should be good for about 3". SLP's on the NAM's both shifted west a hair...just need some magic on getting QPF back to us. The 3km track is usually perfect for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Western edge has dew points around 0.... until the precip hits then it moistens up. The model takes into consideration Virga, that’s why we see no QPF west of RDU. Air is just too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Please be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 At hour 38 on the 3k NAM, you can see the secondary low forming east of the NC/SC boarder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What's the total accum from 3k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Please be correct. Thats a classic track except for one thing, its to dry on the west side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The model takes into consideration Virga, that’s why we see no QPF west of RDU. Air is just too dry. Yep, also I'm sure with us on the western fringe of the circulation we will also be fighting some sinking air so it's a double whammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: At hour 38 on the 3k NAM, you can see the secondary low forming east of the NC/SC boarder: If that gets its act together a little sooner (not out of the question), oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: If that gets its act together a little sooner (not out of the question), oh boy. That would actually be Jan 2000... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Definitely a shift westward on the snowfall totals for the 3k NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If that gets its act together a little sooner (not out of the question), oh boy. how many times have we seen the last minute nw trend inside 36hrs? hoping this time it comes to fruition and helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The NAM on the SC/NC coast was like .7" of freezing rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, wake4est said: The NAM on the SC/NC coast was like .7" of freezing rain.... Yay! Said no one ever. Hope NAM is on crack. Would rather have nothing than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 For reference the last run of the RGEM did this.. 12Z running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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