packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I count 16 of 26 members in the SREF (NMB/ARW) that get nice QPF back to Raleigh, would feel better if it was 90% of the members but that's 40% that whiff. Mean...FWIW. SREF really don't tell us anything when it's 60/40 hit/misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 52 minutes ago, thess said: WRAL/Gardner says "possible" 1-4" Wednesday night. Some warnings are up but east of I-95 only so far. No, she said 1-4" are possible in the areas with the Winter Storm Watches in the eastern part of the state, which simply echose the text of the WS Watches themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: No, she said 1-4" are possible in the areas with the Winter Storm Watches in the eastern part of the state, which simply echose the text of the WS Watches themselves. I went and read that too. However, this is a change for wral who was saying nothing. Nada for Wake. Now she’s saying up to an inch. Baby stepping maybe. Not gonna deviate til they have to. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If you look closely at the meso models it appears they are developing an inverted trough over NC which may partially explain the vast difference in qpf. Globals rarely pick up on this and other mesoscale features that can significantly enhance qpf in a powerful storm like this. I would trust the meso models on this one, especially since we are well under 48 hours from the start and this is their bread and butter range. With all the meso models from the HDRPS, RGEM, ARW, NMM, SREF and 3km/12km NAM showing a good hit along and east of I-95 it's tough to go against them when they excel at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Regan said: I went and read that too. However, this is a change for wral who was saying nothing. Nada for Wake. Now she’s saying up to an inch. Baby stepping maybe. Not gonna deviate til they have to. Lol True, but then again the "up to an inch" part is parroting the NWS RAH 6am briefing they released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The lead wave is a bit sharper over TX at HR 12 on the NAM compared to 6Z. Let's see if that translate to any significant differences down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: True, but then again the "up to an inch" part is parroting the NWS RAH 6am briefing they released. Yep. Saw that on nws at 4 and 6am. I get the feeling the tv mets are biting their nails off camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well though 18 hours the NAM is stronger with the leading wave and more separation with trailing. Small cut off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM is definitely stronger slightly more neutral tilt with the h5 low then 6z....just depends how fast it gets kicked out. This should bode well for SE GA/SC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wow...southern GA into SC should get a really good ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM looks great at 5H at 21 HR. It's not done this in previous runs to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Much more precipitation on the 12z NAM over Central AL & GA. at hr 24 compared to the 6z. That should translate to more moisture making it into central SC & NC. Also noticed that Dew points are around 10 degrees higher in WNC compared to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM by 27 HR dumps a few inches of frozen stuff on Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 looks better at 27, lets see if precip can make it further west here in the next few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 wow at hr30. expansive precip back near gsp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: NAM looks great at 5H at 21 HR. It's not done this in previous runs to my knowledge. Even better at 32. Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We're all getting NAM'd and I'm completely here for it. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The mean is 1" and 90th percentile is 1.9" for KECG. Looks like a non-event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Verbatim drops 12" of winter on Waycross, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 pretty good shift west this run from 00z and 06z. mixing issues at the coast but inland should have some big totals. hope we can keep shifting the precip west thru the next 30hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like we get to stay the execution for one more model cycle. Will there be whiteout conditions and the globals still showing 0.00 QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: pretty good shift west this run from 00z and 06z. mixing issues at the coast but inland should have some big totals. hope we can keep shifting the precip west thru the next 30hrs or so. Better hope not too much further west. Already rain showing up at RDU right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nam is trying its damndest here. SIZEABLE westward shift at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ^ It cut off out there in the Atlantic. First time I've seen that. 3K ought to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What’s a 150 mile swing west among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ It cut off out there in the Atlantic. First time I've seen that. 3K ought to be fun. Cold, I am absolutely amazed at the non existent western shield of qpf. That storm is textbook wrt the upper level look at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The NAM's composite radar is not translating to the surface for many on the western side. Looks like a raging virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 When I see cutoff lows like that I'm thinking January 2000. Second best analog at the 500 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Cold, I am absolutely amazed at the non existent western shield of qpf. That storm is textbook wrt the upper level look at 500. Yeah, I don't get it either. It's a shame, really. We can just hope it comes around, I guess. It must see something that is interrupting the moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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