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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Probably the best chance I have had at a decent snow in a while, for us in the east its always better to worry the storm is to far east than to far west.....the Euro was 4-6" IMBY on this latest run not to shabby. 

 

 

 

A little bit quicker phase and the euro drops 2 feet on you.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

There are 3 short waves that phase into the trough on the Euro and it has a closed off circulation over the southern apps at 168......but no snow for Mack 

Sounds like there's too many ifs and butts to make snow for most of us!? I'm out cause , I can count times I've gotten precip, rain or snow, from a coastal storm in my entire life, on one hand. This may be great for Wilmington, but I'm sure the NW trend won't work this time! I love analogs and the 88 one! So magical! 

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I counted 12 out of 51 members that bring snow to the Carolina's, with the control run above the biggest run.  The 0z run had 20+ members....the mean was cut in half and the SLP mean was obviously shifted SE.  Going the wrong way as we try and get inside day 6...just like the previous 2 threats.

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I counted 12 out of 51 members that bring snow to the Carolina's, with the control run above the biggest run.  The 0z run had 20+ members....the mean was cut in half and the SLP mean was obviously shifted SE.  Going the wrong way as we try and get inside day 6...just like the previous 2 threats.

I never thought we would escape this pattern without seeing a board-wide major winter storm. Now, I am beginning to wonder. 

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4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

seems we are on our way to batting 0-3

Out of the three this one has by far the most red flags...which is why only 1 global shows anything of significance and minimal ensemble support.

Biggest thing that would need to be changed IMO is the big low west of California needs to be further east and/or not be as strong, it's helps strengthen the ridge in the southwest not allowing that piece of energy to dig as far southwest.  Though, I am sure there are other things we would need help with too.

Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west.  

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_5.png

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21 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Out of the three this one has by far the most red flags...which is why only 1 global shows anything of significance and minimal ensemble support.

Biggest thing that would need to be changed IMO is the big low west of California needs to be further east and/or not be as strong, it's helps strengthen the ridge in the southwest not allowing that piece of energy to dig as far southwest.  Though, I am sure there are other things we would need help with too.

Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west.  

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_5.png

 

"Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west."  

Mr Pack.

I try not to pester people with too many questions but I am trying to learn some things.  Is the "energy" you mention signified by the notable kink in the isoheight line in the eastern half of Montana?

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

 

"Also the energy drops down in Montana...not a good spot for us, typically needs to be further west."  

Mr Pack.

I try not to pester people with too many questions but I am trying to learn some things.  Is the "energy" you mention signified by the notable kink in the isoheight line in the eastern half of Montana?

Thats correct...there is another piece that drops down day 5 just west of MN that is key.  So we are way out there in time.

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5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

This is by far the best shot weve,espeacilly everyone to my east has had at a big daddy in several years. 6 days out and you can't ask for a much better shot for a big daddy. Could end up whiffing,strike 3. But we are getting the pitch we want if you prefer to swing for the fences instead of base hit.

Not to be a downer. But this is only 1 run that is showilng this out of several. All the other ones show a surpressed solution with the low being sheared. Let's wait for some consistancy before we celebrate. 

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11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Not to be a downer. But this is only 1 run that is showilng this out of several. All the other ones show a surpressed solution with the low being sheared. Let's wait for some consistancy before we celebrate. 

It's the 2cnd euro in a row. U look for model run to run consistency this far out using a model verse itself,along with its ens trends at H5. Espeacilly when it's the highest scoring verification model.

You have a shot at a phase here in a supper fast flow,which is tough. The back wave that actually is dropping in and setting of the fireworks can actually speed up a tick like its been doing and catch the lead wave to cause a phase and make the trough turn neutral/ negative just 3 hrs sooner. The pivot will throw Atlantic moisture heavier back in the Carolinas and east Coast. Opposite can happen and it's late catching, phasing and only matters to the fish. Have to watch H5 and not surface to see the potential, then you'd understand better.

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13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

It's the 2cnd euro in a row. U look for model run to run consistency this far out using a model verse itself,along with its ens trends at H5. Espeacilly when it's the highest scoring verification model.

You have a shot at a phase here in a supper fast flow,which is tough. The back wave that actually is dropping in and setting of the fireworks can actually speed up a tick like its been doing and catch the lead wave to cause a phase and make the trough turn neutral/ negative just 3 hrs sooner. The pivot will throw Atlantic moisture heavier back in the Carolinas and east Coast. Opposite can happen and it's late catching, phasing and only matters to the fish. Have to watch H5 and not surface to see the potential, then you'd understand better.

Thats why the WPC went with a  "slightly below average" confidence in the 12z GFS and ECMWF right? 2 model runs out of 100's does not constitue as consistant. Maybe if other models join the euro at 0z, then we can begin to ascertain the notion more. Making statments like "This is by far the best shot weve,espeacilly everyone to my east has had at a big daddy in several years." does not add value to 2 model runs of the same model. 

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