BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I will say this. Late phasers are historically difficult to model. See the 2010 Christmas storm, Jan 2000, Dec 2000 bust. THis is a dynamic setup. You'd be dumb to not follow this one until the last hour. Yep, and like you said earlier, that cutoff will be vicious. I can vividly remember watching the wall of precio stop at the gaston/mecklenburg border in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yep, and like you said earlier, that cutoff will be vicious. I can vividly remember watching the wall of precio stop at the gaston/mecklenburg border in 2000. RGEM said "I can do that again" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018010200/rgem_mslp_pcpn_seus_44.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM only goes out to 48 but looks nearly identical to the 3km nam at that time. Similar SLP strength and position, even the banding and NW side are very similar. Imo this tells me the 3km nam is seeing something that globals aren’t picking up on and with the RGEM on board that’s an interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I feel a lot better about an inch or two of snow in Raleigh with the RGEM onboard. Now if the globals will start to show precip back west some, that would be helpful. I expect they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hows the gfs looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Don't think the GFS is going to be much different this run...it's a touch slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If the RGEM and Hi-res NAM verify then we're looking at an unprecedented storm at that location based on the research I've done. I just don't think anyone can confidently say what is going to happen if those models are accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Don't think the GFS is going to be much different this run...it's a touch slower Yep, it's about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, rduwx said: Yep, it's about the same. The globals just aren't interested but do have some light snows down east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well, what we have here is a battle between the Global Models and the High Resolution Models. Will be interesting to see which set comes out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So what model is best inside 60hrs because that's where we are, and in 60+ hours this thing will be more or less done in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: So what model is best inside 60hrs because that's where we are, and in 60+ hours this thing will be more or less done in the SE Heck we are inside of 40 hrs....it shows it starting here around 12ish Wed that 36 hrs or so....though the NAM3k is still snowing IMBY at hr 60..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: So what model is best inside 60hrs because that's where we are, and in 60+ hours this thing will be more or less done in the SE You’d think the Nam and RGEM, but the globals are unwavering in their lack of inland snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: Nice jump West with the precip field: That’s the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Nice jump West with the precip field: This looks like from noon today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: So what model is best inside 60hrs because that's where we are, and in 60+ hours this thing will be more or less done in the SE Red flag to me that the NAM went away from the earlier phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You’d think the Nam and RGEM, but the globals are unwavering in their lack of inland snow. Yep, so maybe the better question is which model depicts precip. best inside of 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Red flag to me that the NAM went away from the earlier phasing But still ended up better and more precip for RAH, the latest NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: Yep, so maybe the better question is which model depicts precip. best inside of 60hrs. Usually the mesoscale models win especially inside 48 hours. Globals, especially the GFS, have more issues with it in setups like this from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 00z CMC went a little east with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 00z CMC went a little east with the precip I just don’t see how the meso models are going to be correct here when none of the globals are coming around to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I just don’t see how the meso models are going to be correct here when none of the globals are coming around to them. I hear you CR, but just last year we had a storm where some group of the globals showed snow for our parts right up to go time while the mesos showed the snow being 50-100 miles west of here...I’m sure you remember which won out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I just don’t see how the meso models are going to be correct here when none of the globals are coming around to them. The theory I guess is higher-resolution features at play the globals are missing. I think we’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: I hear you CR, but just last year we had a storm where some group of the globals showed snow for our parts right up to go time while the mesos showed the snow being 50-100 miles west of here...I’m sure you remember which won out there. Yeah, I remember that. If I recall correctly, the issue wasn’t whether or not we would get precip. It was related to warming aloft limiting snow. In this case, you have generally reliable models showing a storm developing too far away to get appreciable moisture in here vs precip happy models showing plenty of precip. The smart money would be to go with the consensus of low impact to the Triangle. Not saying it can’t change, but it ain’t looking good when you mostly just have the NAM in your corner, especially when it took a step toward the non-snowy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I remember that. If I recall correctly, the issue wasn’t whether or not we would get precip. It was related to warming aloft limiting snow. In this case, you have generally reliable models showing a storm developing too far away to get appreciable moisture in here vs precip happy models showing plenty of precip. The smart money would be to go with the consensus of low impact to the Triangle. Not saying it can’t change, but it ain’t looking good when you mostly just have the NAM in your corner, especially when it took a step toward the non-snowy models. A good comparison would be the early December event where the NAM and RGEM repeatedly had widespread snow across LA to northern GA while most globals had either none there (GFS and Euro especially). It ended up the mesoscale models won that battle too. As long as this goes neutral at or before the FL panhandle then climo and meso models should be a good idea of what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 German model has been consistent about 6-8 runs now with its precip depiction. Here is the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: A good comparison would be the early December event where the NAM and RGEM repeatedly had widespread snow across LA to northern GA while most globals had either none there (GFS and Euro especially). It ended up the mesoscale models won that battle too. As long as this goes neutral at or before the FL panhandle then climo and meso models should be a good idea of what to expect. Completely agree, but I worry because these systems are completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: A good comparison would be the early December event where the NAM and RGEM repeatedly had widespread snow across LA to northern GA while most globals had either none there (GFS and Euro especially). It ended up the mesoscale models won that battle too. As long as this goes neutral at or before the FL panhandle then climo and meso models should be a good idea of what to expect. I guess we can hope they’re onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It’s obvious the mesoscale models, and not just the nam, are seeing something the globals don’t. The Swiss model at 18z had a HUGE uptick in qpf and snowfall inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Getting kind of quiet in here tonight. Where is everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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