BillT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 what is that dropping down through montana into wyoming now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, BillT said: what is that dropping down through montana into wyoming now? Just a piece of energy that's way too late for the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hi-res Nam still throwing a good amount of moisture back to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wake is still in the game.. (more so east wake vs. rdu). Wouldn't take a lot of precip to have moderate impacts because of the cold temps. anything that falls will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, rduwx said: Hi-res Nam still throwing a good amount of moisture back to RDU. What's the Korean model say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3km NAM is impressive for Eastern NC with well over a foot of snow for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sometimes i just wish it would show nothing at all. Enough to keep me intrigued for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: Sometimes i just wish it would show nothing at all. Enough to keep me intrigued for another day. I guarantee you we will have a low like that in a few weeks. All rain, of course, but the radar will look just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Why all the gloom? This looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, negative-nao said: Local forecasters calling for up to 3 inches in Berkeley County South Carolina not sure what model they are looking at EURO/GFS blend.. all WFO offices discounted the NAM solution tegarding their afternoon AFDs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: 3km NAM is impressive for Eastern NC with well over a foot of snow for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Why is there such a discrepancy between 32/12/3km NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: EURO/GFS blend.. all WFO offices discounted the NAM solution tegarding their afternoon AFDs today. Whats your gut feeling on this one storm? I have to travel on to Moncks Corner Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, ajr said: Why all the gloom? This looks great. Wow. After the last 3 winters I've had, I'd take half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Going to need some RGEM support shortly before we can believe the 3k Scam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On the old black and white maps, the RGEM has light precip all the way back to the Triad at HR 48, but the surface low is well east of the coast. Heavier precip is confined right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, ajr said: Why all the gloom? This looks great. 25 to 39 mile shift west and mby goes from trace to 6 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If the low really is that strong and is in the position shown on the NAM then I believe the precip shield will be what is shown on the NAM hi-res. That's just based on past events, which I did some research on this afternoon. I can only make a best guess as there just aren't that many systems that have had a sudden bombogenesis this far south and in that position. I think it's worth considering that the NAM hi-res might be better equipped to pick up on the latent heating due to the convection that develops north of the center of the low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm skeptical on mby getting anywhere near those totals but admittedly have not done any research here as NCWeSU has. We have decent model runs upcoming so maybe this is still a work in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 At hour 30 the RGEM is coming in closer to neutral with the lead vort and further west with the trailing one. Looks like a better phase is setting up on the RGEM to me versus it’s 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, snowlover91 said: At hour 30 the RGEM is coming in closer to neutral with the lead vort and further west with the trailing one. Looks like a better phase is setting up on the RGEM to me versus it’s 18z run. What link are you using for the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 With that in mind a sub 960 MB surface low off the coast of North Carolina for a mid-latitude cyclone is pretty damn rare and not likely to actually materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: What link are you using for the RGEM? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018010200&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 LP further SW at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: What link are you using for the RGEM? I use Pivotal for the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2" snow probs increasing for Ral. 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I will say this. Late phasers are historically difficult to model. See the 2010 Christmas storm, Jan 2000, Dec 2000 bust. THis is a dynamic setup. You'd be dumb to not follow this one until the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I use Pivotal for the RGEM. 9 minutes ago, goldman75 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018010200&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0 thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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